The recovery broadened: cash fed cattle rose a second week to $235–$238 in the north, the Choice cutout posted its first weekly gain in seven weeks at $366.51, and August feeders settled $351.65 with corn quiet at $4.38¾. Against that, Montana’s drought map gave back ground and a thin 8-head barn print at $420 put both Q3 calf bands on watch. Sentiment 6.5/10, up 0.5; all three near-quarter bands held a fourth straight week, and the quarterly table runs through Q4 2027.

The market called last week’s three questions, and all three landed friendly: the forward video market held $445–$469 through the border news, the feeder funds stayed put, and the Choice cutout held $360 while the Choice/Select spread widened to $19.08. August feeders recovered to $348.02, corn broke 23½ cents, cash fed cattle steadied near $231–$232, and the HCMI posted its first weekly gain in five weeks. Sentiment 6.0/10, up 0.5; all three quarterly bands held, and the quarterly forecast now runs through Q4 2027.

The correction caught its breath, then Washington kicked the chair out. Through Friday the week ending July 25 was a stabilization week: August feeders eased just 63 cents to $345.32, August live gained $2.65 to $227.07, and the funds’ selling slowed. Then Monday USDA confirmed a phased reopening of the Mexican cattle border starting August 24, and August feeders fell $7.07 to $338.25 in a session. Cash fed cattle slid another $7 to $230.48, but packer margins repaired to near break-even, the Choice/Select spread widened for the first time in five weeks, and the May rancher share printed 44.8% — the strongest PTI reading of the cycle at +5.3 points. Sentiment holds at 5.5/10; all three quarterly bands HELD. New this week: the futures section becomes the HC Paper-Market Program — who owns the longs and shorts, and how crowded they are against eleven years of history.

The correction ran a third week and moved from the paper market into the country: August feeders fell $8.65 to $345.95, cash fed cattle dropped $8-$13 to about $237 in the largest one-week break of the cycle, and the Choice cutout fell below year-ago for the first time this cycle. But Montana’s forward market held – the Northern Livestock Summertime Classic priced nearly 15,000 head of 550-649 lb steers inside our existing bands – while slaughter ran 7.4% under a year ago. Honest Cattle sentiment steps down to 5.5/10; all three quarterly bands HELD. The HCMI is 140.7 and now carries a six-month forward curve built from transacted prices only.

The correction ran a second week, but slower: August feeders fell $6.02 to $354.60, August live fell $4.02 to $235.20, cash fed cattle dropped $7 to about $248, and the wholesale market confirmed the softness as the Choice/Select spread compressed from $21.48 to $14.35. The supply story held — 35 screwworm cases with a formal 22-county Texas movement zone, a seventh straight week of easing drought with Montana notably improved, and placements still 10% under a year ago — while record Montana heat verified — Billings’ all-time 111° on July 12. Honest Cattle sentiment steps down to 6.0/10; Q3 2026 is ADJUSTED DOWN a second week and Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 are HELD.

The June rally corrected into the July 4 holiday: August feeders fell $9.22 to $360.62 and August live fell $6.60 to $239.22 on technical selling and demand worries, and cash fed cattle followed down to about $255. But the supply story strengthened — the screwworm outbreak tripled to ~32 U.S. cases, drought eased a sixth week to 47.84%, and the Choice/Select spread held firm at $21.48. Honest Cattle sentiment steps down to 6.5/10; Q3 2026 is ADJUSTED DOWN, Q4 2026 HELD, and a new Q1 2027 band is introduced.