The market gave back most of last week’s rally and then USDA handed ranchers the strongest forward number of the year. October feeder futures fell $9.00, live cattle $3.75, and the Choice–Select spread narrowed $4.80. On Friday the Cattle on Feed report put August placements at 1.617 million head, down 9 percent and the lowest August since the series began in 1996. Honest Cattle is holding its Montana calf price bands for a second week. Sentiment holds at 5.0 out of 10.

The cattle market turned around this week. Feeder futures gained $12.35, live cattle $6.72, corn fell, and Billings Livestock sold 2,020 head on Thursday with calves running about $10 per hundredweight above the week before. Montana’s drought footprint shrank for the first time in weeks. Honest Cattle is holding its calf price forecast rather than raising it after three straight price cuts — one strong week is not a trend. Sentiment rises to 5.0 out of 10.

Honest Cattle is cutting all three near-quarter Montana calf bands about $13 to $15 per hundredweight this week after Superior’s September 4 video sale repriced the forward calf book lower again and the first real Montana barn runs of the fall printed well under the old bands. Sentiment falls to 4.5 out of 10 from 5.0. The week’s other headline is a correction: last week’s revision wrongly restated the rancher’s share of the retail beef dollar as 40.8 percent; USDA ERS’s own published series says 51.1 percent for July, and the Price Transmission Index is back to plus 5.3 points, green.

This is a same-day revision correcting a real error: last week’s published rancher-share reading of 51.1% (GREEN) was wrong — fresh USDA ERS data confirms 40.8% (WARNING) for July 2026. Three other data feeds flagged as stale this morning (HCMI, paper-market, video) turned out to be current all along. The corrected quarterly bands stay HELD, and real Montana video forward prices now confirm that call. Sentiment holds at 5.0/10.

The fall calf market finally showed its hand this week, and it bid lower: the big August video sales paid $25 to $35 less per hundredweight for fall-delivery Montana calves than the sales three weeks ago, and all three near-quarter bands are adjusted down a second week. Cash fed cattle fell a third week, corn is up 10% in two weeks, and Washington announced a 300,000-tonne tariff-free ground-beef import program. Sentiment 5.0/10, down from 5.5 — while record-low July placements, a record quality spread, and a $400 jump in Montana bred-cow money strengthen the case for 2027.

The board broke hard: September feeders fell $10.67 to $334.55 and October live cattle lost $6.40 to $218.87, while cash fed cattle in the north traded $228–$230 against last week’s $235.21 official average. The offset is real — the Choice cutout rose a second week to a $373.24 average, the Choice/Select spread widened to $23.06, and the packer’s margin turned clearly positive for the first time this summer. Sentiment 5.5/10, down a point; all three near-quarter calf bands are ADJUSTED DOWN on the board break, with Montana’s transacted video forward book still bracketing them.