HC Research
Original research from Honest Cattle on the forces that shape a cow-calf operation’s bottom line — cattle markets and how prices reach Montana, the structure and traceability of the trade, feedlot and grid economics, who controls genetic and performance data, and the condition of the range.
Honest Cattle research is written for working cow-calf producers. It links to the public, third-party records it relies on — including CME Group futures, the Montana Department of Livestock, USDA NASS, U.S. Customs and Border Protection import records, the Rangeland Analysis Platform, the Beef Improvement Federation, university extension publications, and the auction houses’ own posted sale results — and feeds the numbers in our weekly cattle market forecast. For independent university research we rely on, see MSU Cattle Research.
Cattle Markets & Forecasting
- The Honest Cattle Market Index (HCMI), 2020–2026: Six Years of ResultsThe full HCMI series back to 2020, with its four components and every data source.
- The Montana Cattle IndexWhat the HCMI is, how it is built, and how to read it.
- Five Lessons from Montana’s Summer Video Sales — So Far722 Montana-origin calf lots (107,683 head) sold June 16 – August 21, 2026 on Northern Livestock, Superior and Western Video Market, built lot by lot from the auction books.
- From Grid to Gate: How Cattle Futures Carry Grid Economics Back to Montana Calf BidsHow feedlots project grid economics forward against CME live cattle, feeder cattle and corn futures.
- Getting Paid for What You Shipped: The Calf Weight ProblemWhy most price slides adjust only when calves come in heavy, what a two-way slide changes, and a draft contract for ranchers who want one.
- High Calf Prices Leverage is PerishableA field guide to turning a cyclical price top into lasting advantage.
Market Structure & Traceability
- Where Montana’s Cattle Land: A Five-State Profile of the Markets That Buy UsFive states received 62% of Montana’s 2023 out-of-state cattle volume.
- Captive on Arrival: How Far We Can Trace Montana’s Cattle Through the Captivity TiersAbout 61% of Montana’s out-of-state cattle go to states where we found no public feedyard directory, so the share landing in captive yards can’t be measured from public data. Where yards are mapped (Nebraska and Kansas), a capacity-share model — not a trace — puts about 30% in ownership- or geographic-captive yards.
- Purchased Silence: Who Imports America’s Ground Beef, and Who Hides ItA Farm Animal Transparency (FAT) research paper, republished by Honest Cattle: tracing from public CBP vessel manifests which packers receive imported frozen boneless beef (largely manufacturing trim that competes with your cull cows) and which have asked CBP to keep their names off the public record.
- Montana Brand Owners by County — MDOL Online Brand BookThe Department of Livestock’s searchable brand book: 51,000+ registered brands, filterable by all 56 counties.
Feedlot & Grid Economics
- Feedlot Pricing GridsHow packers price fed cattle on grids — quality and yield grade premiums and discounts, and how they flow back to the cow-calf producer.
- Pricing Grid Markdown Risk at the Calf Stage (HCR-2026-02)Which packer discounts are predictable at the ranch, which are not, and why the author’s herd records point to calving distribution as one of the biggest levers.
Genetics & Data Rights
- Ownership of Cattle Genetics and Performance Data in the United StatesWho holds U.S. cattle genetic and performance data, from breed associations to genotyping labs and ag-tech platforms.
- What Ranchers Can Actually Win on Their DataWhy access, portability and consent are winnable when “ownership” isn’t — and a practical ladder for getting them.
Rangeland Research
- Read Your Own Ground: A Rancher’s Guide to the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP)Check your ranch’s range condition and long-term trend, back to 1986, for free on rangelands.app.
- County-Scale Rangeland Forage Scores Without Pasture VisitsThe method behind the Honest Cattle Forage Score (HCFS) on our Montana county pages.