Two Year Trends in Montana Cattle Auction Results
Understanding Two Years of Montana Cattle Auction Trends (2024-2026)
Montana Beef Herd Context
Montana's beef cow inventory stands at approximately 1.25 million head as of January 2025, representing one of the few states to see growth (+1%) while the national herd contracts. This places Montana as the 13th largest cattle state by inventory.| Year | Montana Beef Cows (Jan 1) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1,235,000 head | -- |
| 2025 | 1,250,000 head | +1.0% (+10,500 head) |
| 2026 (est.) | 1,225,000 - 1,238,000 head | -1% to -3% |
About This Data
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), Montana Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (Report #1778) Time Period: February 17, 2024 – January 31, 2026 (96 weeks) Coverage: Aggregated data from Montana livestock auction barns reporting to USDA AMS, representing public auction sales across the state. Data Collection: USDA AMS collects auction reports from participating livestock markets weekly. Individual cattle records are categorized by commodity type (Feeder, Slaughter, Replacement), class (Steers, Heifers, Bulls, Cows), weight, and grade.⚠️ What This Data Includes — and What It Doesn't
This dataset represents PUBLIC AUCTION SALES ONLY. ✅ INCLUDED:- Cattle sold through Montana livestock auction barns
- Auction sales reported to USDA AMS weekly
- Feeder cattle, slaughter cattle (culls), and replacement breeding stock
- Video/satellite auction sales (e.g., Superior Livestock Auction, Cattle USA)
- Private treaty sales (direct ranch-to-buyer or ranch-to-feedlot transactions)
- Order buyer purchases arranged outside of public auction
- Retained ownership cattle (cattle kept by producers and placed directly in feedlots)
Five Key Insights from 2024-2026 Montana Cattle Auction Trends
1. Auction Volume: 373,000 Head Marketed Through Public Sales
373,169 head sold across 96 weeks
Montana auction barns marketed an average of 3,887 head per week during the study period. Peak weekly volume reached 13,554 head during fall run (October), while summer months (July) saw as few as 390 head per week. Context: With Montana's beef cow herd at ~1.25 million head and an estimated calf crop of 1.25 million head annually, auction sales represent approximately 15-18% of the annual calf crop, consistent with industry estimates that 60-70% of Montana cattle move through private channels.2. Feeder Cattle Dominate Auction Receipts
48% Feeder Cattle | 16% Slaughter (Culls) | 16% Replacement
Feeder cattle (calves and yearlings destined for feedlots) accounted for 271,818 head (48.0%) of total auction head count, nearly 3x the volume of slaughter cattle (culls) at 91,780 head (16.2%). Why this matters: Montana's auction market serves primarily as a feeder cattle price discovery venue rather than a cull cow/slaughter market. Ranchers marketing fed cattle typically bypass auctions in favor of direct packer sales or video auctions with premium pricing.3. Fall Run Drives Seasonal Volatility
October Peak: 8,313 head/week | July Low: 1,108 head/week
Montana auctions experience extreme seasonality, with October volume 7.5x higher than July. Fall calf run (September-November) accounts for the majority of annual feeder cattle marketing as ranchers wean spring-born calves. Marketing implication: Ranchers marketing outside the fall run (e.g., backgrounded yearlings in spring, culled cows in winter) face lower buyer competition and narrower price spreads due to reduced auction volume.4. Montana Cattle Auction Trends on Gender Balance in Feeder Cattle: Near 50/50 Split
49.3% Steers | 47.6% Heifers | 2.8% Bulls
Montana feeder cattle show a balanced gender mix at auction, with steers holding only a slight edge over heifers. Bulls represent a small fraction (2.8%) of feeder offerings, typical of beef production systems where most bull calves are castrated at branding. Pricing context: Steer/heifer price spreads vary by weight and market conditions, but the near 50/50 auction mix indicates Montana producers retain few heifers for replacement and market most of the heifer calf crop as feeders.5. Replacement Cattle Market: 15.6% of Auction Volume
88,835 head of breeding stock sold (Bred Cows, Bred Heifers, Pairs)
Montana auctions serve as a significant venue for replacement female trading, with bred cows, bred heifers, and cow-calf pairs representing 15.6% of total auction receipts. This reflects both herd dispersals and strategic replacement female marketing by seedstock and commercial producers. Note: Replacement cattle marketing is typically highest in spring (bred heifer sales) and fall (open cow culling and bred cow sales), providing liquidity for producers adjusting herd size or genetics.Data Methodology & Accuracy
Data Source: USDA AMS MyMarketNews API, Report #1778 (Montana Weekly Livestock Auction Summary). Data accessed February 2026 covering 96 weeks from February 2024 to January 2026. Aggregation Method: Individual cattle records reported by Montana auction barns were aggregated by week (Saturday ending) and summed by commodity type and class. Total receipts reported by USDA AMS represent the official auction barn count. Discrepancy Note: In some weeks, the sum of individual cattle class head counts may not exactly equal total weekly receipts due to incomplete class reporting or unclassified lots. Analysis uses both total receipts (volume) and detailed class breakdowns (composition) where available. Data Limitations:- Does not include video/satellite auction sales or private treaty transactions
- Represents only auction barns participating in USDA AMS reporting program
- Some small auction barns may not report weekly or may report intermittently