2026-09-14 Honest Cattle® Weekly Market Forecast
The cattle market turned around this week. Feeder futures gained $12.35, live cattle $6.72, corn fell, and Billings Livestock sold 2,020 head on Thursday with calves running about $10 per hundredweight above the week before. Montana’s drought footprint shrank for the first time in weeks. Honest Cattle is holding its calf price forecast rather than raising it after three straight price cuts — one strong week is not a trend. Sentiment rises to 5.0 out of 10.
2026-09-07 Honest Cattle® Weekly Market Forecast
Honest Cattle is cutting all three near-quarter Montana calf bands about $13 to $15 per hundredweight this week after Superior’s September 4 video sale repriced the forward calf book lower again and the first real Montana barn runs of the fall printed well under the old bands. Sentiment falls to 4.5 out of 10 from 5.0. The week’s other headline is a correction: last week’s revision wrongly restated the rancher’s share of the retail beef dollar as 40.8 percent; USDA ERS’s own published series says 51.1 percent for July, and the Price Transmission Index is back to plus 5.3 points, green.
2026-08-31 Honest Cattle® Market Forecast (Revised) — Real Feeds Confirm the Pause, and a PTI Correction
This is a same-day revision correcting a real error: last week’s published rancher-share reading of 51.1% (GREEN) was wrong — fresh USDA ERS data confirms 40.8% (WARNING) for July 2026. Three other data feeds flagged as stale this morning (HCMI, paper-market, video) turned out to be current all along. The corrected quarterly bands stay HELD, and real Montana video forward prices now confirm that call. Sentiment holds at 5.0/10.
Honest Cattle® Market Forecast — Week of August 24, 2026 | The Forward Book Breaks & a 300,000-Tonne Import Shock
The fall calf market finally showed its hand this week, and it bid lower: the big August video sales paid $25 to $35 less per hundredweight for fall-delivery Montana calves than the sales three weeks ago, and all three near-quarter bands are adjusted down a second week. Cash fed cattle fell a third week, corn is up 10% in two weeks, and Washington announced a 300,000-tonne tariff-free ground-beef import program. Sentiment 5.0/10, down from 5.5 — while record-low July placements, a record quality spread, and a $400 jump in Montana bred-cow money strengthen the case for 2027.
Cattle Market Forecast — Week of August 17, 2026 | Feeder Board Break & Tyson’s Beef Retreat
The board broke hard: September feeders fell $10.67 to $334.55 and October live cattle lost $6.40 to $218.87, while cash fed cattle in the north traded $228–$230 against last week’s $235.21 official average. The offset is real — the Choice cutout rose a second week to a $373.24 average, the Choice/Select spread widened to $23.06, and the packer’s margin turned clearly positive for the first time this summer. Sentiment 5.5/10, down a point; all three near-quarter calf bands are ADJUSTED DOWN on the board break, with Montana’s transacted video forward book still bracketing them.
Cattle Market Forecast — Week of August 10, 2026 | Montana Feeder Cattle & Cash Fed Rally
The recovery broadened: cash fed cattle rose a second week to $235–$238 in the north, the Choice cutout posted its first weekly gain in seven weeks at $366.51, and August feeders settled $351.65 with corn quiet at $4.38¾. Against that, Montana’s drought map gave back ground and a thin 8-head barn print at $420 put both Q3 calf bands on watch. Sentiment 6.5/10, up 0.5; all three near-quarter bands held a fourth straight week, and the quarterly table runs through Q4 2027.
Cattle Market Forecast — Week of August 3, 2026 | Feeder Cattle & Boxed Beef Rebound
The market called last week’s three questions, and all three landed friendly: the forward video market held $445–$469 through the border news, the feeder funds stayed put, and the Choice cutout held $360 while the Choice/Select spread widened to $19.08. August feeders recovered to $348.02, corn broke 23½ cents, cash fed cattle steadied near $231–$232, and the HCMI posted its first weekly gain in five weeks. Sentiment 6.0/10, up 0.5; all three quarterly bands held, and the quarterly forecast now runs through Q4 2027.
Cattle Market Forecast — Week of July 28, 2026 | Feeder Cattle & Mexican Border Reopening
The correction caught its breath, then Washington kicked the chair out. Through Friday the week ending July 25 was a stabilization week: August feeders eased just 63 cents to $345.32, August live gained $2.65 to $227.07, and the funds’ selling slowed. Then Monday USDA confirmed a phased reopening of the Mexican cattle border starting August 24, and August feeders fell $7.07 to $338.25 in a session. Cash fed cattle slid another $7 to $230.48, but packer margins repaired to near break-even, the Choice/Select spread widened for the first time in five weeks, and the May rancher share printed 44.8% — the strongest PTI reading of the cycle at +5.3 points. Sentiment holds at 5.5/10; all three quarterly bands HELD. New this week: the futures section becomes the HC Paper-Market Program — who owns the longs and shorts, and how crowded they are against eleven years of history.
Cattle Market Forecast — Week of July 21, 2026 | Feeder Cattle Correction & Montana Auction Bands
The correction ran a third week and moved from the paper market into the country: August feeders fell $8.65 to $345.95, cash fed cattle dropped $8-$13 to about $237 in the largest one-week break of the cycle, and the Choice cutout fell below year-ago for the first time this cycle. But Montana’s forward market held – the Northern Livestock Summertime Classic priced nearly 15,000 head of 550-649 lb steers inside our existing bands – while slaughter ran 7.4% under a year ago. Honest Cattle sentiment steps down to 5.5/10; all three quarterly bands HELD. The HCMI is 140.7 and now carries a six-month forward curve built from transacted prices only.
HC Weekly Market Forecast — Week Ending July 11, 2026
The correction ran a second week, but slower: August feeders fell $6.02 to $354.60, August live fell $4.02 to $235.20, cash fed cattle dropped $7 to about $248, and the wholesale market confirmed the softness as the Choice/Select spread compressed from $21.48 to $14.35. The supply story held — 35 screwworm cases with a formal 22-county Texas movement zone, a seventh straight week of easing drought with Montana notably improved, and placements still 10% under a year ago — while record Montana heat verified — Billings’ all-time 111° on July 12. Honest Cattle sentiment steps down to 6.0/10; Q3 2026 is ADJUSTED DOWN a second week and Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 are HELD.