Updated October 14, 2026: removed an empty forward-price table and its multi-state USDA video-report caption; updated the forward steer-leg description to the July 22 v2.1 method (Montana-origin lots from the auction houses’ own results); matched the hay source to the USDA Montana Direct Hay Report used in the HCMI explainer; spelled out the steer-leg fallback rule; explained why the 2024 row averages 100.5; dropped the “full cattle cycle” claim; labeled the 149.5 reading as of late June 2026; and named the Montana steer leg’s grade as Medium and Large 1 and 1-2 steers, weaned and unweaned alike. No index values or weights were changed. Updated October 15, 2026: after an external review, removed a reference to a December feeder cattle contract (CME lists none; the December forward point uses January feeders), described the inputs as official exchange settlements and reported auction prices rather than “actual trades,” made clear that 100 is each component’s 2024 average while the blended 2024 weekly average is 100.5, noted that the 314 weekly readings do not cover every calendar week, noted that widened-band and carried readings are flagged, and matched the forward-curve fallback to the weekly forecast (no regional fill-in); added a note on the September 28 method restatement.
Method restated September 28, 2026: the Montana steer leg now needs 50 head (was 150) in the 600–650 lb band before widening to 550–700 lb. Under the restated series, the 48 weekly readings in 2024 average 100.2, and the series peak is 148.5 (week ending May 2, 2026). Figures below that predate the restatement — including the 2024 average of 100.5 and the late-June reading of 149.5 — are shown as originally published; the weekly forecast carries the current series.
Ranchers can use the Honest Cattle Market Index to judge whether today’s calf prices are strong or weak against a fixed yardstick instead of last week’s headlines. Its inputs are public price reports, including USDA AMS livestock market news, and the current reading leads every weekly cattle market forecast.
The Honest Cattle Market Index (HCMI) is our weekly, public, rules-based benchmark of cattle-market conditions for Montana and Northern Plains cow-calf producers, anchored to 2024: each of its four price components is set to 100 at its own 2024 average. This post shows the full HCMI series back to 2020, what goes into it, and exactly where the numbers come from.
Methodology note (July 2026): HCMI v2 (July 17, 2026) added provisional weekly prints and a six-month forward curve built only from market prices (exchange settlements and auction results); v2.1 (July 22, 2026) rebuilt the forward Montana steer leg from Montana-origin lots. The historical series below is unchanged. See HCMI v2 — what is changing, and why.
Honest Cattle Market Index, weekly, January 2020 – late June 2026 (314 weekly readings; not every calendar week in that span has one), as originally published before the September 28, 2026 restatement. The dashed line is the 2024 base = 100. The last point (149.5) is the pre-restatement reading as of late June 2026; the current reading is in the weekly forecast. Source: CME settlements + USDA AMS Montana auction data; see Data sources below.
What six years show
HCMI runs from a post-COVID low near 47 in spring 2020 to 149.5 in late June 2026 — roughly a threefold rise in cattle prices as the index measures them (not adjusted for inflation, and not a measure of profit) in about six years. (149.5 is the latest reading in this series, as of late June 2026, as originally published before the September 28 restatement; the current reading leads each weekly forecast.) The climb was steady rather than spiky: tight cattle supplies from years of herd liquidation met firm beef demand, and HCMI reads it the same way every week. The pre-base years (2020–2023) sit below 100 because prices then were lower than in 2024; 2025 and 2026 sit well above it.
| Year | Average HCMI | Range | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 53.7 | 47.0–58.9 | post-COVID low |
| 2021 | 59.9 | 54.0–67.3 | recovery |
| 2022 | 69.8 | 64.7–82.6 | herd liquidation underway |
| 2023 | 88.2 | 72.4–98.4 | climbing toward base |
| 2024 | 100.5 | 88.5–106.7 | base year (components = 100; see note) |
| 2025 | 123.9 | 108.0–143.0 | new highs |
| 2026 (through late June) | 144.2 | 139.3–149.5 | latest 149.5, as of late June 2026 |
The four components
HCMI blends four prices a cow-calf producer actually lives on — two national futures (the deep, forward-looking signal) and two Montana cash series (the local signal a generic index lacks). Each is indexed to its own 2024 average, then combined by fixed weights. Hay is deliberately left out of the headline — it is a cost, not revenue — and tracked separately as a Hay Cost Watch companion.
| Component | Weight | 2024 base ($/cwt) | What it captures |
|---|---|---|---|
| CME Feeder Cattle futures (GF) | 42.1% | 248.08 | The national feeder board — forward-looking anchor |
| CME Live Cattle futures (LE) | 26.3% | 183.66 | The fed-cattle ceiling feedyards bid against |
| Montana 600–650 lb feeder steer cash | 21.1% | 296.03 | The local calf market, from Montana auctions |
| Montana boning cull cow cash | 10.5% | 125.09 | The cull-cow check — real cow-calf revenue |
How it is built
Each component is converted to its own index versus its 2024 average, then the four are combined by the weights above. The two futures bases are the 2024 daily-settlement averages from CME; the two Montana cash bases are head-weighted averages of the USDA Montana auction reports for all of 2024. As an independent check, we rebuilt the feeder anchor a second way — from twelve states’ worth of USDA auction data, nearly a million head — and the two methods agreed within 0.3%. When the Montana 600–650 lb steer trade goes thin, the steer leg falls back in three steps: it uses the 600–650 lb average when at least 50 head traded (the threshold was 150 head until the September 28, 2026 restatement); failing that, it widens to a 550–700 lb band if that band clears the head threshold (a wider band mixes in lighter and heavier calves, so those weeks are flagged); failing that, it carries the last solid print forward and flags it, rather than chasing a handful of head.
Data sources
- CME Group — front-month Feeder Cattle (GF) and Live Cattle (LE) daily settlements (the two futures legs and their 2024 bases).
- USDA AMS Montana Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (AMS-1778), via USDA My Market News — the two Montana cash legs (600–650 lb Medium and Large 1 and 1-2 steers, weaned and unweaned alike, and Boner 80–85% cull cows), head-weighted.
- USDA AMS twelve-state feeder cattle auction reports — 700–899 lb M&L steers across the twelve CME-index states, used only to cross-validate the feeder base.
- USDA AMS Montana Direct Hay Report (AMS_2769) — Montana-only hay prices, for the separate Hay Cost Watch companion carried in the weekly forecast.
- Base period: calendar-year 2024 averages. History: 314 weekly readings, January 2020 – late June 2026. That span has 339 calendar weeks; weeks without a reading are left out, not filled in. The weekly series and methodology notes are available on request.
For the full method — every formula, weight, and rule — see the HCMI explainer (what it is, why we built it, and how to read it). HCMI is an information tool, not investment, hedging, or financial advice.
HCMI v2 — What Is Changing, and Why (July 2026)
This July put a weakness of the index on public display, and fixing it properly means saying so in the open. This section explains what is changing in the HCMI, what is not, and why.
Why change anything
First, the reliability lesson. Two of the four HCMI legs — the Montana 600–650 lb steer and the Montana boning cow — come from USDA’s Montana Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (AMS_1778). In the deep-summer trough, Montana’s sale barns run so thin that USDA sometimes issues no summary at all: no new AMS_1778 was posted between July 2 and mid-July 2026, and the same thing happened in early June. When that happens the index has been printing “pending refresh” — even though the two futures legs, 68.4% of the index’s weight, settle fresh every trading day. An index that goes dark when its smallest inputs pause is built backwards.
Second, the forward question. A spot index answers “where are conditions today.” The question a rancher actually decides on in July is “what does the market say about October.” The HCMI needed a forward view — but not one built on our own opinions.
The rule that governs the redesign
Every moving number in the HCMI must be an official CME settlement or a reported auction price: USDA’s Montana auction summary for the spot cash legs, the auction houses’ own results for forward video lots. (A settlement is the exchange’s official closing price; on a quiet day CME’s procedure can set it from the last trade checked against bids and offers, or from the prior settle, rather than from that day’s closing trades.) No leg of the index — spot or forward — is ever an Honest Cattle estimate. Where no fresh price exists, the index widens the weight band or carries the last USDA print, and flags it, rather than substituting a forecast. That rule drove all three changes below.
Change 1 — Provisional weekly prints
When USDA skips an AMS_1778 week, the HCMI now publishes anyway: the two futures legs update from that week’s settles, the two Montana cash legs carry at their last published USDA values, and the print is flagged provisional — Montana legs carried. When USDA’s report resumes, the affected weeks reconcile. No more “pending”; no invented numbers — a disclosed carry convention, the same one the steer leg uses in thin trade.
Change 2 — A six-month forward curve, from market prices only
The HCMI gains forward points out six months, built from two kinds of real market prices. The futures legs come off the deferred CME contracts — settlement prices the market sets today for delivery months out. CME lists feeder cattle futures only for January, March, April, May, August, September, October and November, so a December point uses the January feeder contract alongside December live cattle. The Montana steer leg comes from the forward market Montana already has: video-auction sales. Every lot on a Northern Livestock, Superior, or Western Video sale is a real calf sold today at a firm price for delivery one to six months out. Since v2.1 (July 22, 2026), the Montana forward leg is built lot by lot from the auction houses’ own published results — Northern Livestock Video Auction, Superior Livestock, Western Video Market — keeping only lots with a published Montana shipping or delivery point.
That gives a market-priced forward curve for the fall calf run — no model, no opinion. The cull-cow leg has no forward market anywhere, so in the forward curve it carries at the last USDA print, disclosed. Two standing cautions ride with the video leg every time it appears. First, where a delivery month has no Montana-origin lots yet, the leg holds the last Montana cash price and is labeled “held” in the weekly forecast; it is not filled with a multi-state regional figure, the same rule the forecast’s Montana video table follows. Second, video prices are forward FOB base-weight prices with a slide — in plain terms, a price per hundredweight agreed today for calves handed over at the ranch or shipping point (FOB) at a later date, quoted for an agreed base weight and adjusted by a set amount per hundredweight according to how far the actual delivery weight misses that base (the slide) — not spot barn bids.
Change 3 — The forward curve gets graded
Forward HCMI points will be logged and scored against the realized index in the weekly Forecast Accuracy Scorecard, the same discipline applied to the quarterly calf-price bands. If the forward curve runs rich or poor, the error will be published, not explained away.
What this is not — and how it differs from the CME index
The CME Feeder Cattle Index — the benchmark feeder futures settle against — is a trailing 7-day average of 700–899 lb steer sales across a 12-state region, and its rules exclude any video or direct sale with pickup more than 14 days out. It is built for settlement robustness, and for that job it is the right tool. But it prices a heavier animal than a Montana cow-calf outfit ships, blends Montana into eleven other states, carries no cull-cow revenue, and deliberately discards the forward-delivery trades. The HCMI v2 forward curve is built precisely on the transactions the CME index throws away — because for a rancher deciding when and how to sell this fall’s calves, those forward trades are the most relevant prices in the country.
What does not change
The base (each component’s 2024 average = 100), the four components and their weights, and the entire historical series on this page are untouched. HCMI v2 adds a publishing convention and a forward view; it does not restate a single historical value. Every chart above remains valid. Provisional prints and the forward curve were introduced as HCMI v2 on July 17, 2026, and the Montana forward steer leg was rebuilt from Montana-origin lots as v2.1 on July 22, 2026; the methodology paper now stands as version 1.1 as amended by v2.0 and v2.1. The later September 28, 2026 restatement, which cut the steer-leg head threshold from 150 to 50, did revise the weekly series; the chart and tables above show the figures as originally published, and the weekly forecast carries the restated series.
Related
- The Honest Cattle Market Index (HCMI) — what it is and how to read it
- From Grid to Gate: How Cattle Futures Carry Grid Economics Back to Montana Calf Bids
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