Dirk Adams, with the assistance of AI
The Honest Cattle Market Index (HCMI) is our weekly, public, reproducible benchmark of cattle-market conditions for Montana and Northern Plains cow-calf producers, anchored so the 2024 calendar-year average equals 100. This post shows the full HCMI series back to 2020, what goes into it, and exactly where the numbers come from.
Methodology note (July 2026): HCMI v2 adds provisional weekly prints and a six-month forward curve built from transacted prices only. The historical series below is unchanged. See HCMI v2 — what is changing, and why.
Honest Cattle Market Index, weekly, January 2020 – June 2026 (314 weekly points). The dashed line is the 2024 base = 100. Source: CME settlements + USDA AMS Montana auction data; see Data sources below.
What six years show
HCMI runs from a post-COVID low near 47 in spring 2020 to 149.5 in late June 2026 — roughly a threefold rise in cattle-market revenue conditions over one full cattle cycle. The climb was steady rather than spiky: tight cattle supplies from years of herd liquidation met firm beef demand, and HCMI reads it the same way every week. The pre-base years (2020–2023) sit below 100 by construction — they were below the 2024 average; 2025 and 2026 sit well above it.
| Year | Average HCMI | Range | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 53.7 | 47.0–58.9 | post-COVID low |
| 2021 | 59.9 | 54.0–67.3 | recovery |
| 2022 | 69.8 | 64.7–82.6 | herd liquidation underway |
| 2023 | 88.2 | 72.4–98.4 | climbing toward base |
| 2024 | 100.5 | 88.5–106.7 | base year (= 100) |
| 2025 | 123.9 | 108.0–143.0 | new highs |
| 2026 (to date) | 144.2 | 139.3–149.5 | latest 149.5 |
The four components
HCMI blends four prices a cow-calf producer actually lives on — two national futures (the deep, forward-looking signal) and two Montana cash series (the local signal a generic index lacks). Each is indexed to its own 2024 average, then combined by fixed weights. Hay is deliberately left out of the headline — it is a cost, not revenue — and tracked separately as a Hay Cost Watch companion.
| Component | Weight | 2024 base ($/cwt) | What it captures |
|---|---|---|---|
| CME Feeder Cattle futures (GF) | 42.1% | 248.08 | The national feeder board — forward-looking anchor |
| CME Live Cattle futures (LE) | 26.3% | 183.66 | The fed-cattle ceiling feedyards bid against |
| Montana 600–650 lb feeder steer cash | 21.1% | 296.03 | The local calf market, from Montana auctions |
| Montana boning cull cow cash | 10.5% | 125.09 | The cull-cow check — real cow-calf revenue |
How it is built
Each component is converted to its own index versus its 2024 average, then the four are combined by the weights above. The two futures bases are the 2024 daily-settlement averages from CME; the two Montana cash bases are head-weighted averages of the USDA Montana auction reports for all of 2024. As an independent check, we rebuilt the feeder anchor a second way — from twelve states’ worth of USDA auction data, nearly a million head — and the two methods agreed within 0.3%. When the Montana 600–650 lb steer trade goes thin in summer, we carry the last solid auction print forward and flag it rather than chase a handful of head.
Data sources
- CME Group — front-month Feeder Cattle (GF) and Live Cattle (LE) daily settlements (the two futures legs and their 2024 bases).
- USDA AMS Montana Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (AMS-1778), via USDA My Market News — the two Montana cash legs (600–650 lb M&L #1 steers and Boner 80–85% cull cows), head-weighted.
- USDA AMS twelve-state feeder cattle auction reports — 700–899 lb M&L steers across the twelve CME-index states, used only to cross-validate the feeder base.
- USDA NASS Agricultural Prices — Montana alfalfa hay, for the separate Hay Cost Watch companion.
- Base period: calendar-year 2024 averages. History: 314 weekly points, January 2020 – June 2026.
For the full method — every formula, weight, and rule — see the HCMI explainer (what it is, why we built it, and how to read it). HCMI is an information tool, not investment, hedging, or financial advice.
HCMI v2 — What Is Changing, and Why (July 2026)
This July put a weakness of the index on public display, and fixing it properly means saying so in the open. This section explains what is changing in the HCMI, what is not, and why.
Why change anything
First, the reliability lesson. Two of the four HCMI legs — the Montana 600–650 lb steer and the Montana boning cow — come from USDA’s Montana Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (AMS_1778). In the deep-summer trough, Montana’s sale barns run so thin that USDA sometimes issues no summary at all: no new AMS_1778 was posted between July 2 and mid-July 2026, and the same thing happened in early June. When that happens the index has been printing “pending refresh” — even though the two futures legs, 68.4% of the index’s weight, settle fresh every trading day. An index that goes dark when its smallest inputs pause is built backwards.
Second, the forward question. A spot index answers “where are conditions today.” The question a rancher actually decides on in July is “what does the market say about October.” The HCMI needed a forward view — but not one built on our own opinions.
The rule that governs the redesign
Every moving number in the HCMI must be a price somebody actually paid or a settle somebody actually traded. No leg of the index — spot or forward — is ever an Honest Cattle estimate. Where no market price exists, the index carries the last USDA print and says so, rather than substituting a forecast. That rule drove all three changes below.
Change 1 — Provisional weekly prints
When USDA skips an AMS_1778 week, the HCMI will now publish anyway: the two futures legs update from that week’s settles, the two Montana cash legs carry at their last published USDA values, and the print is flagged provisional — Montana legs carried. When USDA’s report resumes, the affected weeks reconcile. No more “pending”; no invented numbers — a disclosed carry convention, the same one the steer leg has used all spring in thin trade.
Change 2 — A six-month forward curve, from transacted prices only
The HCMI gains forward points out six months, built from two kinds of real transactions. The futures legs come off the deferred CME contracts — the August, October, and December feeder and live cattle months are quoted prices the market pays today for delivery months out. The Montana steer leg comes from the forward market Montana already has: video-auction sales. Every lot on a Northern Livestock, Superior, or Western Video sale is a real calf sold today at a firm price for delivery one to six months out, reported by USDA with the delivery window attached. Here is what that market was already trading at the June 16–17 Superior sale, in exactly the weight bands this site forecasts:
| Delivery window | 550–599 lb steers, wtd avg $/cwt | 600–649 lb steers, wtd avg $/cwt |
|---|
That is a transacted forward curve for the fall calf run — no model, no opinion. The cull-cow leg has no forward market anywhere, so in the forward curve it carries at the last USDA print, disclosed. Two standing cautions ride with the video leg every time it appears: USDA reports these sales for a multi-state North Central region (Montana is in it, but there is no Montana-only breakout), and video prices are forward FOB base-weight prices with a slide — not spot barn bids.
Change 3 — The forward curve gets graded
Forward HCMI points will be logged and scored against the realized index in the weekly Forecast Accuracy Scorecard, the same discipline applied to the quarterly calf-price bands. If the forward curve runs rich or poor, the error will be published, not explained away.
What this is not — and how it differs from the CME index
The CME Feeder Cattle Index — the benchmark feeder futures settle against — is a trailing 7-day average of 700–899 lb steer sales across a 12-state region, and its rules exclude any video or direct sale with pickup more than 14 days out. It is built for settlement robustness, and for that job it is the right tool. But it prices a heavier animal than a Montana cow-calf outfit ships, blends Montana into eleven other states, carries no cull-cow revenue, and deliberately discards the forward-delivery trades. The HCMI v2 forward curve is built precisely on the transactions the CME index throws away — because for a rancher deciding when and how to sell this fall’s calves, those forward trades are the most relevant prices in the country.
What does not change
The base (2024 calendar-year average = 100), the four components and their weights, and the entire historical series on this page are untouched. HCMI v2 adds a publishing convention and a forward view; it does not restate a single historical value. Every chart above remains valid. Provisional prints and the forward block begin with the weekly forecasts in late July 2026, and the methodology paper will be re-cut to v2 when the first forward curve publishes.
Related
- The Honest Cattle Market Index (HCMI) — what it is and how to read it
- From Grid to Gate: How Cattle Futures Carry Grid Economics Back to Montana Calf Bids
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