Forecasting Tools
Transparent, data-driven models for anticipating cattle market conditions. Each tool comes with plain-language instructions and a ready-to-use Excel model so ranchers, buyers, and market watchers can adapt the assumptions to their own operation. Tool-by-tool methodology, downloadable instructions, and spreadsheets live on the individual tool pages linked below.
Calf Price Forecasting Tool
Open tool →Overview
Forecasting calf prices for 2026 requires balancing today’s historically low U.S. beef cow herd and tight feeder supply against softening consumer demand, shifting trade policy, and volatile input costs. This tool synthesizes USDA, CME, and industry projections into a baseline forecast and pairs it with an Excel model that lets you adjust the key drivers and instantly see the price impact.
Key Market Factors — At a Glance
- Cattle supply & inventory: Beef cow herd at roughly 27.9 million head — a multi-decade low — keeps feeder calf supplies tight and supports strong prices.
- Consumer beef demand: Record retail prices are testing consumer tolerance; any material demand pullback would weigh on calf values.
- Feed & input costs: Moderating corn and hay prices improve feedlot margins and buyer appetite for feeder calves.
- Fuel & transport: Diesel costs move freight surcharges and buyer basis, especially for long-haul loads from the Northern Plains.
- Cattle disease & trade policy: New World screwworm risk from Mexico and shifting tariff/border dynamics can swing supply and price sharply.
- Weather & pasture conditions: Drought on the Northern Plains drives earlier marketings, heavier culling, and regional premium/discount pressure.
- Interest rates & capital costs: The cost of financing calves and breeding stock directly affects buyer bids and replacement-heifer economics.
The full model walks through the baseline calculation, the Excel layout (inputs, adjustments, and outputs), notes and assumptions, sources, and provides downloadable instructions and the working spreadsheet.
Drought Implications for Cattle Tool
Open tool →Overview
The Montana Drought Impact Model quantifies the dollars-per-head, dollars-per-lot, and dollars-per-cow consequences of mild, moderate, and severe drought (S1, S2, S3) on a Northern Plains cow-calf operation. It captures grazing-capacity losses, lighter and earlier-weaned calves, marketing-channel deductions, cull and bred-female price pressure, and hay procurement cost — so ranchers can plan destocking, hay buying, and calf marketing before the market moves against them.
Key Market Factors — At a Glance
- AUM grazing capacity: Effective carrying capacity falls 15% in S1, 30% in S2, 45% in S3 — the primary driver of early wean, early sell, or forced liquidation.
- Calf weight and price discounts: Drought cuts weaning weights (S1 −3%, S2 −7%, S3 −13%) and calf prices (S1 −5%, S2 −12%, S3 −20% for steers; deeper for heifers).
- Cull and bred-female market: Flooded cull supply pushes cow prices down (S3 −15%); bred-cow and bred-heifer values fall 4–28% depending on severity.
- Marketing channel economics: Ring auction, cattle-buyer private treaty, and video auction compared net-of-commission, shrink, pencil shrink, gate cut, and one-directional price slide.
- Hay supply and cost: Own-hay yield drops to 25% of normal in S3; purchased hay runs +15% to +65% over normal with freight, and buy-by-July beats buy-in-October by roughly 80% per ton.
- SNOTEL & USDM triggers: Scenario thresholds tied to SNOTEL % of median and USDM Drought Severity and Coverage Index (DSCI) so scenarios align with public drought signals.
- Break-even cull count: Hay cost expressed as the number of cows at drought cull prices required to cover procurement — a cash-flow sanity check, not a prescription.
The full tool page covers the scenario definitions, the Assumptions / Scenario Comparison / Feeder Calf Detail / Hay Shortage Analysis sheets, sources, and provides downloadable instructions and the working Excel model.
Additional forecasting tools will be added to this suite over time. Check back, or reach out through the Contact page to suggest a model you’d like to see next.