HC Weekly Market Forecast — Week Ending July 4, 2026
The June rally corrected into the July 4 holiday: August feeders fell $9.22 to $360.62 and August live fell $6.60 to $239.22 on technical selling and demand worries, and cash fed cattle followed down to about $255. But the supply story strengthened — the screwworm outbreak tripled to ~32 U.S. cases, drought eased a sixth week to 47.84%, and the Choice/Select spread held firm at $21.48. Honest Cattle sentiment steps down to 6.5/10; Q3 2026 is ADJUSTED DOWN, Q4 2026 HELD, and a new Q1 2027 band is introduced.
Cattle Market Forecast — Week of June 29, 2026 | Montana Feeder Cattle & HCMI Update
Honest Cattle Market Index * 149.5 Week ending June 27, 2026 · +49.5% vs the 2024 base (=100) · WoW +1.2 pts.* 2026-06-29 Honest Cattle Weekly Market Forecast Week Ending June 27, 2026 · Published 2026-06-29 Two-Page Summary Headline read. Last week’s bullish gate-clearing held but did not extend — this was a consolidation week. August feeder […]
Cattle Market Forecast — Week of June 22, 2026 | Cattle-on-Feed Report & Montana Outlook
The June 18 USDA Cattle on Feed report broke bullish — May placements down 10% — clearing the Q4 marketing-window gate as the board and cash rallied. Honest Cattle sentiment rises to 7.5/10; Q4 2026 ADJUSTED UP, Q2/Q3 HELD. Prepared by Dirk Adams with the assistance of AI.
Cattle Market Forecast — Week of June 15, 2026 | Boxed Beef Spread & Montana Calf Outlook
2026-06-15 Honest Cattle Weekly Market Forecast Week Ending June 13, 2026 00 Two-Page Summary Headline read. Two developments define the week and both cut bullish for the Montana calf seller. The Choice/Select boxed-beef spread did not merely hold its early-June regime break — it blew out to $17.58/cwt at the June 10 close, the widest […]
Cattle Market Forecast — Week of June 8, 2026 | Screwworm Case & Montana Feeder Outlook
2026-06-08 Honest Cattle Weekly Market Forecast Week Ending June 6, 2026 · honestcattle.net Two-Page Summary Headline read. The market event of the week is the first New World screwworm case ever confirmed in the United States — Zavala County, Texas (June 3 and June 5), with Governor Abbott expanding a statewide disaster declaration. On the […]
Cattle Market Forecast — Week of June 1, 2026 | Feeder Cattle & Boxed Beef, Montana Bands
The cattle complex stabilized this week at a lower equilibrium with a meaningful constructive shift on the Choice/Select side. August feeder cattle (GFQ26) settled $348.42/cwt Friday May 29, down $1.43/cwt (-0.4%) on the week; July corn broke 16.5c/bu to $4.46-3/4 (-3.6%); cash fed cattle pulled back another $3-$4/cwt to $256-$257 live. The Choice/Select spread widened to $8.29/cwt (+$4.69 WoW), crossing the $8/cwt quality-bid threshold for the first time since February. FI slaughter ran a Memorial Day-shortened ~460,000 head, the smallest in modern history. Honest Cattle weekly sentiment HELD at 6.5/10; all three quarterly bands HELD.
Montana Weekly Market Forecast — Week Ending May 30, 2026
The cattle complex stabilized this week at a lower equilibrium with a meaningful constructive shift on the Choice/Select side. August feeder cattle (GFQ26) settled $348.42/cwt Friday May 29, down $1.43/cwt (-0.4%) on the week; July corn broke 16.5c/bu to $4.46-3/4 (-3.6%); cash fed cattle pulled back another $3-$4/cwt to $256-$257 live. The Choice/Select spread widened to $8.29/cwt (+$4.69 WoW), crossing the $8/cwt quality-bid threshold for the first time since February. FI slaughter ran a Memorial Day-shortened ~460,000 head, the smallest in modern history. Honest Cattle weekly sentiment HELD at 6.5/10; all three quarterly bands HELD.
Texas Weekly Market Forecast — Week Ending May 30, 2026
Inaugural Honest Cattle Texas weekly forecast. National drivers (Aug feeder $348.42, corn $4.46¾, Choice/Select $8.29 regime break), Texas auction tone, screwworm-tightened light-calf supply, late-May range improvement, and a preliminary Texas quarterly band. Texas sentiment 7.0/10.
Feeder Cattle Pullback & April CoF +6% — Cattle Market Forecast May 25, 2026
The cattle complex broke this week. August feeder cattle (GFQ26) settled $349.85/cwt on Friday May 22, down $11.60/cwt (-3.2%) for the week, with Thursday’s $9.25/cwt limit-down move forcing expanded trading limits Friday. The May 22 Cattle on Feed report landed bearish: April placements 1.702 million head (+6% YoY, first YoY placement increase since November 2024) and May 1 on-feed 11.6 million head (+2% YoY, first YoY on-feed increase in 18 months). Cash fed cattle pulled back to $260-262 with late sales at $258-260. Honest Cattle weekly sentiment moves DOWN to 6.5/10 from 7.5 last week — Q3 and Q4 quarterly bands ADJUSTED DOWN $5/cwt at the mid; Q2 HELD.
Feeder Cattle, Fed Cattle & Boxed Beef — Honest Cattle Weekly Market Report May 18, 2026
2026-05-18 Honest Cattle Weekly Market Forecast Two-Page Summary — Week Ending May 16, 2026 The full forecast follows this summary. Every numbered category in the body is touched here in one to three lines. Numbers, sources, and translation math live in the body sections; this is a read-at-a-glance index. Headline read. Cash fed cattle ripped […]