2026-06-15 Honest Cattle Weekly Market Forecast

Week Ending June 13, 2026

00  Two-Page Summary

Headline read. Two developments define the week and both cut bullish for the Montana calf seller. The Choice/Select boxed-beef spread did not merely hold its early-June regime break — it blew out to $17.58/cwt at the June 10 close, the widest of this cattle cycle and nearly double the $10.01 a week earlier, as Choice held near $393 while Select fell to $375.70. And the New World screwworm outbreak escalated, with USDA’s confirmed U.S. case count reaching six by June 9 and the infestation spreading north out of Zavala County into La Salle County. August feeders firmed to $357.42/cwt (+1.0%) on still-cheap corn while August live cattle stabilized at $241.17 (-0.2%); cash eased about $1 to $256 live and slaughter ran roughly 524,000 head (about 7-8% under a year ago). Sentiment holds at 7.0/10 and all three quarterly bands are HELD — the structural signals strengthened, but the spread widening is as much Select weakness as Choice strength and the June 19 Cattle on Feed report is four days out and gates Q4.

• 1. Executive Summary. Spread blowout to $17.58 and screwworm escalation to six U.S. cases are the week’s two stories; feeders firm, live flat, sentiment 7.0, all bands HELD pending June 19.
• 2. Quarterly Forecast. Q2 $470-$500, Q3 $480-$520, Q4 $435-$480 (steer mids $485 / $500 / $455) — all HELD; Q4 explicitly gated by the June 19 placement number.
• 3. CME & Corn. Aug feeders $357.42 (+$3.52/+1.0%); July corn $4.12-1/2 (-4-3/4c); feeder/corn ratio 86.6 (vs 84.8), still well above the 55-65 norm because feed stays cheap.
• 4. Cash Fed Cattle. Live eased ~$1 to $256; northern dressed steady $405-$406; live-cattle cash-to-Aug basis near +$15/cwt.
• 5. Feedlot Break-Even. Current-placement cohort remains in the black roughly $120-$210/head as the lower cost of gain holds; Aug live board is the forward ceiling.
• 6. Montana Auctions. Billings-complex receipts 2,293 head (feeders 543, 23.7%); feeder split 39% steers / 44% heifers / 16% bulls — still heifer-heavy vs the 49.3/47.6/2.8 two-year average.
• 7. Boxed Beef & Packer. Choice $393.28 / Select $375.70 / spread $17.58 (June 10); all-grade cutout soft, packer margin near -$18 to -$22/cwt; quality side is the whole story.
• 8. Slaughter. FI kill ~524,000 head (-~9,000 WoW; roughly -7-8% YoY); steer/heifer carcass ~948 lb, +40 lb YoY — the weight offset is still adding ~4% beef per head.
• 9. Texas / Secondary. Screwworm response dominates; eastern-Texas barns (Navasota) not yet price-affected; Brazos Valley Boner #2 cull cows firm at $158-$170/cwt.
• 10. Weather. Benign Montana early-summer convection, no forced marketing; Texas range still better than the southern-Plains average. County detail lives on your county page.
• 11. Moisture / Range. National drought eased a third week to 56.16% (-2.22pp); the operative Montana variable is growing-season soil moisture — see your county page.
• 12. Range Forage. Mixed-to-cautious for Montana; five numbered marketing decisions follow with $/head consequences (cull opens now, price the rally, verify quality, precondition, clean-source premium).
• 13. Bred / Cull. Spring open-cow turnover with firm packer-cow demand keeps culls cashing well; low bred share means forward calf supply 7-10 months out stays ample.
• 14. Screwworm. Six confirmed U.S. cases by June 9, spreading north into La Salle County plus a Mexico-linked dog in Andrews County; structurally bullish supply tail, +$3 to +$10/head forward.
• 15. Imports / Tariffs. Mexican live-cattle suspension (~11 months, ~1M head/yr removed) supports feeders; record lean-trim imports cap cull-cow upside; the TRQ-suspension proposal stays unresolved.
• 16. Grid Pricing. At a $17.58 spread the worked grid premium reaches roughly $365/head on a top-quartile cohort; 12-month Choice/Select table shows the trough-to-blowout move; +$11 to +$15/cwt verified-calf flow-through on a 5-9 month lag.
• 17. Rancher Share / PTI. Rancher share 42.7%, PTI +3.2pp GREEN on the April actual (ERS, released May 12); +$1.60 to +$3.20/cwt support; May ERS release not yet ingested this run.
• 18. Sentiment. 7.0/10 (HELD); Net Signal Table net near-term +$2.75/cwt (+$17/head); PTI a required positive input; held rather than raised pending June 19.
• 19. Risks. June 19 Cattle on Feed (May placements) is the dominant gate; also screwworm spread, spread durability, a corn-weather rally, and Montana turn-out moisture.
• 20. Sources. Every figure dated to its USDA/CME/ERS/APHIS report; no composite citations.
• Comparison to Prior Week. Spread +$7.57 (regime entrenched), screwworm 2 to 6 U.S. cases, drought -2.22pp, feeders +1.0%, live stabilized; sentiment and all bands HELD.

 

01  Executive Summary

This report has been reviewed against the prior week’s HC Weekly Market Forecast (Week Ending June 6, 2026, published June 8). Two stories define the week, and both cut the same direction for the Montana calf seller. First, the Choice/Select boxed-beef spread did not just hold the early-June regime break it confirmed last week — it blew out, reaching $17.58/cwt at the June 10 close, the widest of this cattle cycle and nearly double the $10.01 a week earlier. Choice cutout held near $393 while Select fell to $375.70; the gap is the market paying up hard for quality grade. Second, the New World screwworm outbreak escalated: USDA’s confirmed U.S. case count rose to six by June 9, with the infestation spreading north out of Zavala County into La Salle County and a Mexico-linked case in a dog in Andrews County.

On the board, August feeder cattle (GFQ26) settled $357.42/cwt at Friday’s June 12 settlement, up $3.52/cwt (+1.0%) on the week from $353.90, as July corn (ZCN26) eased another 4-3/4 cents to $4.12-1/2/bu and the feeder/corn ratio firmed to 86.6 from 84.8 — still well above the 10-year normal range of roughly 55-65, and still high because feed is cheap rather than because feeders ran away. August live cattle (LEQ26) settled $241.17/cwt, essentially flat on the week (-$0.48, -0.2%) after the prior week’s $6.60 drop — the fed-cattle board stabilized rather than extending lower, which removes one of last week’s drags.

Cash fed cattle eased about $1 to $256 live, with northern dressed steady at $405-$406. Federally inspected slaughter ran roughly 524,000 head, down about 9,000 from the prior week and roughly 7-8% under year-ago, with steer-and-heifer carcasses near 948 lb (about 40 lb above a year ago). The Price Transmission Index holds at +3.2pp GREEN on the most recent actual data (April 2026 ERS, released May 12). Honest Cattle weekly sentiment holds at 7.0/10: the spread blowout and the screwworm escalation are unambiguously bullish, but the widening is as much Select weakness as Choice strength, the all-grade cutout and packer margin stay soft, and the June 19 USDA Cattle on Feed report (May placements) is four days out and gates the back half. Q2, Q3, and Q4 are all HELD pending June 19.

02  2026 Montana Quarterly Forecast

The 2026 Montana quarterly calf-price bands below are the single most decision-relevant output of this forecast for cow-calf producers. They express expected $/cwt ranges for 550-650 lb Montana calves, steers and heifers, with a status tag relative to the prior week. This week all three bands are HELD: the structural signals strengthened (the spread blowout, the screwworm escalation, a third week of easing drought), but they confirm the bands already in place rather than move them, and Q4 is explicitly gated by the June 19 USDA Cattle on Feed report (May placements), now four days out.

Quarter	Status	Steer Range	Steer Mid	Heifer Range	Heifer Mid
Q2 2026	HELD	$470–$500	$485	$450–$480	$465
Q3 2026	HELD	$480–$520	$500	$460–$500	$480
Q4 2026	HELD	$435–$480	$455	$415–$460	$437

Q2 2026 $470-$500/cwt — HELD. The Q2 cohort is largely committed and the marketing window is in front of the June grass-yearling and bawling-calf trade. August feeder futures at $357.42 imply a basis-stable Montana 600-lb steer bid in the $450-$480/cwt range — within the Q2 band — with cheap corn preserving feedyard bidding room. Holding.

Q3 2026 $480-$520/cwt — HELD (mid $500). Last week’s upward adjustment lands on the August-delivery cohort, and this week’s data confirms rather than extends it: the Choice/Select spread blew out to $17.58 (a powerful tailwind for verified-Choice calves on a 5-9 month lag), corn stayed cheap, and the screwworm supply tail strengthened. Against that, the widening is partly Select-led weakness, the all-grade cutout is soft, and June 19 is imminent. The disciplined call is to bank last week’s up-move and hold the band rather than chase the spread a second time. Holding.

Q4 2026 $435-$480/cwt — HELD. The April placement bulge still floods the Q4 marketing window, and the June 19 Cattle on Feed print is the gating event before this band moves. The screwworm escalation and the entrenched Choice/Select regime are constructive for Q4 but unconfirmed against the placement risk. Reputation premium on verified Montana programs at these $4-handle calf prices remains $0.12-$0.18/lb (2.5%-3.5% of value), holding the elevated post-2024 regime above the historical $0.06-$0.12/lb range. Holding pending June 19.

03  CME Futures and Corn — Friday June 12, 2026 Settlements

Lead with corn, because corn still sets the feeder tone. July corn (ZCN26) on the Chicago Board of Trade settled $4.12-1/2/bu Friday June 12, up a penny on the day but down 4-3/4 cents (-1.1%) on the week from $4.17-1/2. After the prior week’s 6.6% break, corn consolidated at the lower level rather than rebounding — the cost of gain is holding its improved footing as the Corn Belt growing season advances. July soybeans settled $11.13-1/2 and July Chicago wheat $5.84-1/2; the grain complex stayed heavy.

August feeder cattle (GFQ26, Chicago Mercantile Exchange) settled $357.42/cwt, down $2.22 Friday but up $3.52/cwt (+1.0%) on the week from $353.90. The feeder board extended its rally a second week on the back of the cheaper-corn footing. August live cattle (LEQ26) settled $241.17/cwt, down $1.50 Friday and down just $0.48/cwt (-0.2%) on the week from $241.65 — the fed-cattle board flattened out after the prior week’s drop, an important stabilization that takes the live-board headwind off the feeder bid for now.

The feeder/corn ratio — August feeder price divided by July corn price — firmed to 86.6 from 84.8 last week, holding well above the 10-year normal range of roughly 55-65. As we stressed last week, the distinction between reading the ratio as a level and reading it as a move is the whole point. As a level, 86.6 says feeders are dear relative to corn — a flag for thinner feeding margins if the fed board slides. As a move, the ratio is high because corn is cheap, not because feeders blew off: corn is down on the week and feeders up only 1.0%. The cheap-feed reading is the one that reaches the Montana auction first.

For the calf a Montana producer sells this summer and fall, a low cost of gain improves the feedyard’s projected break-even, and a feedyard that can finish a calf for less has room to pay more for it. Two cautions ride with it: that bidding room evaporates if corn rallies back on a summer weather scare (Section 19), and the live-cattle board — though stabilized this week at $241.17 — remains the offsetting ceiling on how far feedyards will chase feeders. The constructive read holds only so long as corn stays down and the live board does not resume its slide.

Translation to Montana calf bids. The continued cheap corn and the second-week feeder rally firm the Montana 600-lb steer bid to roughly $450-$480/cwt against the August board, a $3-$5/cwt improvement in feedyard bidding tolerance versus last week. Montana auctions reprice the futures board within hours, so this flows through within the next sale week (1-2 week lag).

SIDEBAR — FEEDER/CORN RATIO -> MONTANA CALF BID
This week: 86.6 (10-yr avg ~55-65; >65 = feeders historically expensive vs corn)
Change from prior week: +1.8 points (corn -1.1%, feeders +1.0%)
Per 1.0-point move: +/-$0.20-$0.35/cwt . +/-$1.20-$2.10/head on 600-lb calf
Direction this week: BULLISH (cheap-feed footing holds; feedyard bidding room intact)
Lag: 1-2 weeks

Reading the sidebar in plain language: the feeder/corn ratio is just the August feeder price divided by the July corn price, a quick gauge of how expensive calves are to feed. Each one-point move is worth roughly $0.20-$0.35 per hundredweight, or about $1.20-$2.10 per head on a 600-lb calf. This week’s +1.8-point firming is worth on the order of $0.40-$0.65/cwt of additional bidding tolerance ($2-$4/head) flowing into next week’s Montana sales — a smaller increment than last week’s corn-break jump, but additive and in the producer’s favor. The ratio is high because corn is cheap; a corn rally would compress it back fast.

04  Cash Fed Cattle and Basis Context

Cash fed cattle eased about $1/cwt this week on light, late-developing trade. Live sales in the Texas Panhandle, Kansas, and Nebraska bulked near $256/cwt, with Kansas tests ranging $256-$258; dressed sales in the north ran mostly $405-$406. That is down roughly $1 live from last week’s $257 bulk with dressed effectively steady — the holiday-recovery kill and heavier showlists shifted a little leverage back toward the packer, but the trade held within a dollar of the prior week rather than breaking.

Basis context for Montana: with August live cattle futures at $241.17 and cash at $256 live, the live-cattle cash-to-August basis is roughly +$15/cwt — a wide positive basis that reflects a deferred board discounting the back-half tonnage bulge. For the Montana feeder seller the more relevant basis is the lightweight-calf premium to the feeder board: Montana 600-lb steers in the most recent weighted-average data traded near $451/cwt cash against an August feeder board of $357.42, a basis of roughly +$90-$95/cwt that reflects the steep premium light calves carry over heavier board-weight feeders.

Translation to Montana calf bids. Cash fed cattle holding within $1 of the prior week, with the August board stabilized, keeps feedyard willingness to place intact. A steady-to-slightly-softer cash trade with a wide positive live basis keeps the near-term Montana calf bid supported in the $450-$480/cwt zone; the risk remains the deferred live board, which if it resumes sliding will eventually cap how far feedyards chase feeders (2-4 week lag).

05  Feedlot Profitability and Break-Even

The break-even math, run on actual purchase data rather than an estimate: a 750-lb feeder placed in roughly January 2026 at the then-prevailing Montana/regional placement price near $385-$400/cwt (from AMS_1778 weighted averages in that window) carried a delivered cost near $3,000-$3,100/head. Add roughly $0.92-$1.08/lb of cost of gain over ~500 lb to a 1,250-lb finish — held down by the cheap-corn footing — and the all-in break-even lands near $237-$245/cwt on the finished steer.

Against this week’s cash fed cattle at $256 live, that cohort is in the black by roughly $120-$210/head before risk-management gains or losses — little changed from last week as the soft $1 cash dip offset the still-low cost of gain. The marketing window feedyards are targeting is August-September delivery, which is exactly why the August live board at $241.17 matters: it caps the forward price feedyards can lock even as current cash pays. The low corn price remains the swing factor holding the placement economics positive.

Translation to Montana calf bids. Positive current feeding margins plus a low cost of gain are the mechanism by which cheap corn reaches the auction: feedyards earning money on cattle in the yard and facing cheap gain can bid up for replacements. That supports the $450-$480/cwt Montana 600-lb steer bid into the summer placement window, with the August live board the principal ceiling (2-6 week lag).

06  Montana Weekly Auction Data (AMS_1778 and Regional)

Montana auction volume stayed in its early-summer wind-down. The most recent Montana Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (AMS_1778), covering the Billings-complex markets for the week of May 31-June 6, 2026, reported total receipts of 2,293 head, with feeder cattle comprising 543 head (23.7% of receipts). Within the feeder class the split ran 39% steers, 44% heifers, 16% bulls, and 1% beef/dairy; feeders over 600 lb were 66% of the feeder run. Demand for quality feeder cattle stayed good and slaughter-cow prices held steady.

For weighted-average price detail, the most recent full AMS_1778 weighted-average report (week ending May 16, published May 18) remains the primary reference: Medium and Large 1 steers brought $572.95/cwt at 460-474 lb, $487.56 at 555-575 lb, $451.06 at 607-620 lb, $431.02 at 654-698 lb, and $383.32 at 752-783 lb; heifers brought $467.86 at 508-546 lb, $429.69 at 550-593 lb, $407.01 at 600-637 lb, and $391.25 at 653-688 lb.

The 44% heifer share within the feeder class read against the 39% steer share continues to run heavier on heifers than the 96-week 2-year average of 49.3% steers / 47.6% heifers / 2.8% bulls — steers at 39% are below their two-year norm, the mirror image of continued heifer marketing. As in prior spring weeks, this is the eastern- and central-Montana grass-cattle pattern: producers shipping the heifer cohort into still-strong replacement-and-feeder demand and a dry forage outlook rather than holding heifers back for retention. It is a current-liquidity signal, not a herd-rebuilding signal.

Translation to Montana calf bids. Thin summer volume plus good quality-feeder demand keeps the verified-calf bid firm; the futures-implied $450-$480/cwt range is the working anchor for the light-steer bid heading into the June grass-yearling trade. Continued aggressive heifer marketing slightly tightens the fall-retained female supply, a mild forward support.

07  Boxed Beef Cutout and Packer Economics

The boxed beef cutout did not just confirm the quality bid this week — it accelerated it, and in a way that rewards grade specifically. At the most recent confirmed daily close (June 10), the Choice cutout was $393.28/cwt while Select fell to $375.70/cwt, widening the Choice/Select spread to $17.58/cwt on 107 loads. That is the widest spread of this cycle. The week traced a steady blowout: $10.01 on June 5, $14.11 on June 8, $15.97 on June 9, and $17.58 on June 10, with the five-day averages at $393.27 Choice and $381.04 Select. (The Friday June 12 daily cutout values were not separately retrievable for this run; the June 10 close is used as the most recent confirmed daily reference.)

What the spread means: a Choice/Select spread under $5/cwt signals undifferentiated demand — buyers are not paying up for quality. Above $8/cwt, retailers are actively bidding for Choice and better product for the summer grilling pull. At $17.58 this is a third-plus consecutive print above $8 and the widest since the 2025 grilling peak — a confirmed, entrenched quality-bid regime and the single most important structural development for verified Montana calves this quarter. One honest caveat: this week’s widening came as much from Select falling ($382.69 to $375.70) as from Choice rising, so it reads as a quality-differentiation story — buyers discriminating hard for grade — more than a broad, all-boats-rise demand surge.

Packer economics stayed pressured and softened a touch. With the all-grade cutout near $385 against a dressed-equivalent cattle cost near $405-$406, the packer gross margin sits roughly -$18 to -$22/cwt — modestly worse week-over-week as the Select leg pulled the all-grade value down even while Choice held. Record carcass weights (Section 8) add sellable tonnage per head, partially cushioning the negative margin, and the widening Choice premium improves the value of the quality side of the kill mix even as the headline margin stays underwater.

SIDEBAR — PACKER GROSS MARGIN -> MONTANA CALF BID
This week: approx -$18 to -$22/cwt (all-grade cutout ~$385 – fed cash dressed-equiv ~$405-406)
Change from prior week: roughly -$5/cwt (Select leg pulled all-grade lower; cash eased ~$1)
Per $1/cwt expansion: +$0.20-$0.40/cwt . +$1.20-$2.40/head on 600-lb calf
Direction this week: SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE (margin a touch worse; quality side improving)
Lag: 2-4 weeks

In plain language: the packer gross margin (PGM) is the boxed-beef cutout value minus what the packer paid for the live animal, per hundredweight of carcass. When that margin expands, packers bid more aggressively for fed cattle two-to-four weeks out, and that bidding eventually reaches the feeder calf. This week the margin slipped a touch deeper into the red, so the PGM signal is mildly negative on its own — but the Choice/Select blowout below is doing the constructive work the headline margin is not.

SIDEBAR — CHOICE-SELECT SPREAD -> MONTANA CALF BID
This week: $17.58/cwt (vs $10.01 prior week; 4-wk avg ~$12.20)
Per $1/cwt move: $0.65-$0.85/cwt on 600-lb calf . $4-$5/head verified-program
Direction this week: STRONGLY BULLISH (widest of cycle; regime entrenched)
Lag: 5-9 months

Plain language on the spread sidebar: the Choice/Select spread is the price gap between Choice and Select boxed beef. Every $1/cwt that gap widens is worth roughly $0.65-$0.85/cwt, or $4-$5/head, on a verified-Choice-and-better 600-lb Montana calf — but only on calves enrolled in quality programs; commodity calves capture only about 30% of the move. With the spread at $17.58 and entrenched, the verified-quality calf bid has real upside building on a 5-9 month lag to the August-December feedlot bids. The worked grid translation is in Section 16.

08  Cattle Slaughter and Packer Margins

Federally inspected (FI) cattle slaughter ran roughly 524,000 head for the week ending June 13, down about 9,000 head from the prior week’s ~533,000 and roughly 7-8% below the year-ago comparable week. The year-over-year decline is the steady drumbeat of this cycle: the U.S. beef herd is at a multi-decade low and there are simply fewer cattle to kill — steer slaughter has run about 8% under year-ago and total fed slaughter near 9-10% lower through the spring. A sustained 7-8% YoY slaughter shortfall is supportive of fed-cattle cash over a 4-8 week window.

Carcass weights remain the offsetting headwind. Steer-and-heifer carcasses averaged roughly 948 lb in the most recent June data, about 40 lb above year-ago and up nearly 32 lb so far in 2026. Those extra 40 lb per carcass put roughly 4% more beef per head into the box, partially replacing the missing head count and capping how bullish the slaughter shortfall can be for price. Analysts note another 25-30 lb of seasonal gain this fall would push average steer carcass weight above 1,000 lb nationally for the first time.

The forward risk is the May placement number in the June 19 Cattle on Feed report, now four days out. Last month’s report carried a placement read that still overhangs the Q4 marketing window; until June 19 resolves the May placement number, the slaughter story is constructive near-term (fewer head) but uncertain forward (placement cohorts flowing to slaughter in 5-9 months).

SIDEBAR — SLAUGHTER + PLACEMENTS -> MONTANA CALF BID
Slaughter this week: ~524,000 head (delta YoY: ~ -7 to -8%)
Latest monthly placements: pending June 19 Cattle on Feed (May placements)
Per 1% slaughter decline: +$0.50-$1.00/cwt . +$3-$6/head (4-8 wk lag)
Per 1% placement decline: +$0.50-$1.50/cwt . +$3-$9/head (5-9 mo lag)
Combined direction this week: BULLISH near-term (-7 to -8% YoY kill), UNCERTAIN forward (June 19)

In plain terms: FI means federally inspected — the weekly national kill. YoY is year-over-year. When weekly slaughter runs below a year ago, packers compete harder for the cattle that exist, which supports cash and, in turn, feeder bids. At roughly -7 to -8% YoY, the near-term arithmetic is worth on the order of +$4 to +$8/cwt of fed-cattle support and, passed through, several dollars per hundredweight to the Montana calf — but record carcass weights add back about 4% more beef per head, and the June 19 placement number could change the forward picture, which is why the forward read stays open.

09  Texas Auction Data and Secondary Market

Texas auctions are in their summer wind-down, and the region’s headline remains animal-health, not price. Producers Livestock Auction in San Angelo (the West Texas reference) reported calves and yearlings steady to instances higher on good demand for the better calves at its most recent sale, with summer receipts light. Navasota Livestock Auction (the primary San Jacinto County proxy via AMS_1955) continues its weaned-calf sales on light early-summer receipts.

The screwworm situation widened this week (see Section 14). The confirmed U.S. detections now reach La Salle County, north of the original Zavala County site, with surveillance zones across southwest and south Texas. That is still well west of the Navasota / Brazos Valley trade and has not yet shown up as a price effect at the eastern Texas barns, but the movement-and-inspection overhang across the southern Texas auction network is broader than it was a week ago.

Secondary-market reference for open cows: Brazos Valley Livestock Commission (Bryan, TX) remains the HC reference because Navasota does not separately report cull-cow detail in AMS_1955. Brazos Valley open-cow trade held firm, with Boner #2 cows in the $158-$170/cwt range, consistent with the firm national cull-cow tone.

Translation to Montana calf bids. Texas matters to Montana through the national feeder pipeline. A screwworm-driven movement overhang on southern Texas cattle, now spreading north and layered on the 11-month Mexican cattle import suspension, tightens the southern feeder supply that competes with Montana calves — a strengthening forward support for the Montana bid (5-9 month lag), discussed in full in Section 14.

10  Regional Weather Summary

Northern Plains / Montana: mid-June conditions across the Park County and central-Montana grazing country ran seasonal, with afternoon convection and scattered thunderstorms typical for the period and no operationally significant cold-stress or feeding-disruption events this week. The relevant operational signal for the cow-calf producer is moisture timing into the growing season, not temperature, and that signal is covered in Section 11 and on your county page.

Southern Plains / Texas: late-spring frontal moisture continued to support the central- and eastern-Texas forage base, keeping range conditions better than the southern-Plains average. The Texas weather story this week was again overshadowed by the screwworm response (Section 14).

Translation to Montana calf bids. Benign Montana weather means no weather-driven forced marketing this week and no cold-stress demand premium — neutral for the near-term bid. The forward driver is summer moisture: a dry turn-out (Section 11) pulls calf marketings forward and pressures fall bids; timely rain delays marketing and supports them. For county-level SNOTEL, soil moisture, Drought Monitor category, and the NWS 7-day, see your county page on honestcattle.net.

11  Moisture, Snowpack, and Range Condition — See Your County Page

At the national scale, the U.S. Drought Monitor most recently showed Lower-48 drought coverage easing to 56.16% as of June 9, down 2.22 percentage points from 58.38% the prior week. That is the third consecutive week of easing as spring and early-summer precipitation filled in, and the directional trend is favorable — though more than half the Lower 48 remains in some drought category, and Montana’s range outlook is the operative concern for fall calf supply.

Montana’s snowpack season is over for 2026; the relevant variable now is growing-season soil moisture and range green-up. The continued heifer-heavy Montana auction composition is itself a range signal: when ranchers keep shipping the female cohort in volume in late spring rather than retaining, they are reading a dry turn-out and managing stocking rate down. That on-the-ground behavior matters more than any single station reading.

Translation to Montana calf bids. Easing national drought is a modest positive for the national forage base and feeder demand. But a dry Montana turn-out, signaled by continued heifer marketing, biases Montana calf marketings earlier and heavier this summer, which can pressure August-September local bids even as the futures board firms. Producers should watch their own county page for the SNOTEL-to-10-year comparison, soil-moisture percentile, Drought Monitor category, and range/pasture condition that drive their specific turn-out decision.

12  Range Forage Outlook and Implications for Feeder Marketing

The forage signal this week is mixed-to-cautious for Montana. National drought eased for a third week, which helps the broad feeder-demand picture, but the Montana-specific read — continued heifer-heavy marketing and a dry turn-out across much of the eastern and central range — points to constrained summer carrying capacity. When grass is short, calves come to town earlier and heavier, and the producer who plans the marketing date deliberately captures more of the still-strong bid than the one forced to react.

The constructive offset is real and strengthening: cheap corn holds the cost of gain down, the feeder/corn ratio at 86.6 says feedyards can pay up, and the Choice/Select spread at $17.58 plus the spreading screwworm story support the forward bid. The forage decision, then, is about timing into a firm-but-uncertain market, not about dumping into a falling one. Here is what the range signal changes, with pricing consequences:

1. Pregnancy-check and pull open cows now, not in August. With cull-cow values firm (Montana stock cows backed by Brazos Valley Boner #2 at $158-$170/cwt) and a dry turn-out, every open cow carried on short grass costs feed and forgoes a firm cull market. Moving opens now at ~$158-$170/cwt on a 1,300-lb cow captures roughly $2,050-$2,210/head before the summer cull run softens the market.
2. Book August-September delivery on grass yearlings against the rallied board. August feeders at $357.42 are up a second week; pricing or hedging a portion of the yearling cut now locks the corn-supported rally. Waiting for a dry-pasture forced sale risks giving back $5-$15/cwt ($30-$90/head on a 700-lb yearling) if local basis weakens on bunched-up summer marketings.
3. Enroll the calf crop in a verified Choice/quality program before fall. With the Choice/Select spread blown out to $17.58 and a regime entrenched, the verified-quality premium is building at $4-$5/head per dollar of spread. At a sustained $15-$18 spread that is on the order of $40-$70/head of capturable premium on verified-Choice calves — money the commodity calf leaves on the table (it captures only ~30%).
4. Wean and precondition rather than sell bawling if grass allows even 30-45 days. At an 86.6 feeder/corn ratio, feedyards reward weight and health; a preconditioned, weaned calf at these prices typically earns $0.08-$0.15/lb over a bawling calf, roughly $48-$90/head on a 600-lb calf — provided you are not feeding purchased hay into a drought to do it.
5. Pre-position for a clean-source premium on the spreading screwworm story. Montana origin is far from the infested zone, which is now spreading north in Texas. Verified Montana-origin, health-papered calves may command a modest clean-source premium as buyers shy from movement-restricted southern cattle. Have age-and-source and health verification in hand to capture an estimated $3-$10/head of emerging premium this fall.

Net range-forage read: plan the marketing date, price the rally where you can, verify quality and source, and move opens early. The market is firm and the structural tailwinds are strengthening; the risk is being forced rather than deliberate.

13  Bred Cattle and Cull Cow Data

Montana. The most recent AMS_1778 weighted-average composition (week ending May 16, published May 18) showed the replacement class running 58% stock cows, 8% bred cows, 2% bred heifers, 22% cow-calf pairs, and 11% heifer pairs, and the early-June Billings-complex runs continued to print heifer-heavy feeder marketing. The 58% stock-cow share within the replacement class confirms the spring open-cow turnover pattern: these are predominantly open females being culled before grass turn-out — a current-year liquidity signal, not retained-bred marketings.

Texas. Brazos Valley Livestock Commission and Navasota continue to print a more open-cow-heavy spring composition than the Montana runs, with bred-cow share near the lower end of the spring window. Open-cow trade at Brazos Valley held firm with Boner #2 cows at $158-$170/cwt.

The two-way read. Stock-cow share (current-week cull signal): with stock cows dominating the replacement class and a heavy open-cow flow, a normal year would pressure cull-cow prices, but firm packer-cow demand is holding the cull market up. Bred-cow / bred-heifer share (forward calf-value signal): the combined bred share remains low (roughly 10% of the replacement class), well under the 60% threshold that would signal active retention — meaning forward calf supply 7-10 months out stays ample, a mild forward headwind rather than a tightening.

SIDEBAR — REPLACEMENT COMPOSITION -> CULL-COW + FORWARD CALF VALUE
This week: stock cows ~58% . bred cows ~8% . bred heifers ~2% (of replacement class; price detail AMS_1778 wk ending May 16; early-June Billings receipts wk ending June 6)
Cull-cow read (current-week): heavy open-cow flow, but firm packer-cow demand -> cull market FIRM, +$3 to +$8/cwt vs a normal spring ($40-$105/head on a 1,300-lb cow)
Forward calf read (7-10 months): combined bred share ~10% (<60%) -> delayed retention, forward calf supply ample -> -$2 to -$5/cwt (-$12 to -$30/head) in the 7-10 month window

In plain language: “stock cows” are open (non-pregnant) females being sold; “bred” cows and heifers are carrying a calf and signal whether ranchers are rebuilding the herd. A high stock-cow share in spring is a cull-now signal — firm packer demand means those culls are still cashing well ($40-$105/head above a soft spring). The low bred share tells you ranchers are not yet retaining females, so the calf supply 7-10 months out stays ample, a small drag on the forward calf bid rather than the tightening that aggressive retention would create.

14  New World Screwworm Status

The screwworm story escalated this week. After the first-ever U.S. New World screwworm (NWS) detection on June 3 (a calf at La Pryor in Zavala County, southwest Texas) and a second Zavala County case June 5, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed additional cases that pushed the U.S. count to six by June 9. The new detections reached north into La Salle County, Texas (a calf), and included a dog in Andrews County that had recently returned from Mexico — the geographic spread out of the original Zavala zone is the material change versus last week.

The federal-state response intensified accordingly. USDA continued sterile-fly dispersal — roughly 2 million sterile screwworm flies released by air twice weekly, supplemented by about 4 million per week through two dozen ground release chambers in and around the detection zone — the sterile-male technique that breaks the fly’s single-mating reproductive cycle. Governor Abbott’s statewide disaster declaration remains in force, county emergency declarations are in place across the affected southwest-Texas counties, and the CDC activated its Emergency Operations Center for the response. The permanent Edinburg sterile-fly facility is not expected to be operational until fall 2027, and USDA has estimated an established outbreak could do roughly $1.8 billion in damage to the Texas economy.

Two points of perspective for the cattle market. First, screwworm does not infect meat — USDA has stated there is no food-supply-chain disruption; the risk is to live animals (and wildlife, notably deer), and no locally acquired human cases have been reported. Second, this lands on top of an already-suspended border: Mexican cattle imports have been suspended for roughly 11 months, removing more than one million head per year from U.S. supply while the U.S. herd sits at a multi-decade low.

Translation to Montana calf bids. The net effect is structurally bullish for cattle supply and therefore for the Montana calf bid, and the bullish tail strengthened this week as the outbreak spread north. A widening U.S. screwworm presence raises the prospect of intrastate and interstate movement restrictions, inspection costs, and animal losses concentrated in the southern herd — tightening the already-thin national feeder pipeline that competes with Montana calves. Montana origin is geographically insulated, which can earn a modest clean-source premium. Quantified: a supply-tightening event of this type is worth an estimated +$3 to +$10/head of forward support on a 600-lb Montana calf over the 5-9 month window (up from +$2 to +$8 last week as the geographic spread widened), with meaningful upside if movement restrictions broaden and two-way volatility if the outbreak triggers demand scares. This remains the dominant new structural input behind the firm Q3 stance and the elevated sentiment.

15  Import and Tariff Landscape

The import story is the flip side of the screwworm coin. Because the southern border has been closed to Mexican live cattle for roughly 11 months, Mexican producers are increasingly sending the animal north as boxed beef rather than as a live feeder. Mexican beef shipments to the U.S. surged about 23% in the first four months of 2026 to roughly 197 million pounds — the largest percentage gain of any major supplier — and USDA-FAS forecasts Mexican beef exports up about 6% for the year. Behind that swing, an estimated one million head that would normally have crossed as feeders have been redirected into Mexican feedyards, and Mexican cattle slaughter is projected to climb about 5% in 2026. The cattle that cannot come as feeders are coming as meat.

That fits a record U.S. import year. Total U.S. beef imports ran roughly 1.7 billion pounds in the first quarter of 2026, up 15.3% year-over-year on top of a record 2025. By source: Brazil led at 394 million pounds (+8%), Australia 334 million (+12%), Mexico 197 million (+23%), with Argentina up sharply off a small base. The overwhelming majority of these imports are lean trimmings and processing beef — high-lean product that packers and grinders blend with fatty domestic fed-cattle trim to hit ground-beef specifications. That is the decisive point for a cow-calf producer: imported lean trim competes with the lean side of U.S. supply — cull cows and grinding beef — not with the high-quality fed Choice steer that anchors the Montana feeder-calf bid. U.S. exports, meanwhile, keep sliding, which leaves more domestic product at home and reinforces the import pull.

On tariffs and types: Mexico and Canada ship duty-free under USMCA, and Australia enters effectively duty-free under its free-trade-agreement quota, so the surge from those three origins carries no tariff brake. Brazil is the exception — it has no U.S. free-trade agreement and competes in the ‘Other Countries’ tariff-rate quota of about 65,000 metric tons, which filled in the first week of January 2026; every pound Brazil has shipped since has carried the 26.4% out-of-quota tariff, and it kept shipping anyway because U.S. lean-trim demand is that strong. The live policy wildcard: the administration’s mid-May proposal to suspend the beef tariff-rate-quota limits for roughly 200 days — which would let all suppliers ship at the lower in-quota rate to push back on record retail beef prices — remains unresolved after pushback from cattle producers and congressional members. It is a genuine policy risk worth tracking week to week.

Translation to Montana calf bids. The two halves cut in opposite directions and land on different cattle. The Mexican live-cattle suspension removes on the order of one million feeders a year from the U.S. pipeline — a persistent $3-$8/cwt structural support under feeder values, now extended indefinitely by the U.S. detection and squarely bullish for the Montana 600-lb calf. The offsetting surge in imported lean beef lands on the grinding and cull-cow complex: it caps how far ground-beef demand can lift cull-cow values and, if the proposed TRQ suspension proceeds, would add a modest dampener to retail-to-farm price transmission (the PTI in Section 17). Net for the Montana producer: clearly supportive for the feeder calf you sell, a mild headwind for the cull cow you ship, and a tariff headline worth tracking (multi-quarter lag on both legs).

16  Packer Grid Pricing and Implications for Calf Prices

The packer grid is the mechanism that turns national beef-quality demand into a Montana calf bid. The standard early-summer 2026 grid prices premiums and discounts off the weekly negotiated cash base ($256 live / $405-$406 dressed): a Prime premium of roughly +$24-$28/cwt to base; a Certified Angus Beef (CAB) premium of roughly +$13-$17/cwt (wider this week on the spread blowout); Choice as the base reference; a Select discount of roughly -$18-$26/cwt (deeper this week as Select cutout fell); and a Standard/Utility/No-Roll discount of -$22 to -$35/cwt. Yield Grade (YG) 1-2 captures +$0 to +$2/cwt; YG 4 carries -$10 to -$18/cwt; and YG 5 carries the steep -$20 to -$35/cwt heavy-carcass discount that binds on more cohorts as carcasses run +40 lb above year-ago.

The Choice/Select spread is the leading indicator for grid-margin transmission, and at $17.58/cwt — the widest of the cycle — the grid quality premium is dramatically expanded versus the 19-week compressed regime that bottomed near $3.60 in May. At a $17.58 spread, the feedyard’s grid Choice-and-CAB premium runs roughly $150-$170/head on a top-quartile cohort, well above the $28-$38/head captured at the late-April compression.

12-Month Choice/Select Trend

The mid-month-Friday Choice/Select trend below tracks the spread from the 2025 grilling peak through the compression regime that dominated since November 2025 and the regime break now entrenched. The May 22 row is the compressed trough; the June 10 close is the current reference and the confirming print of the blowout.

Date (mid-month Fri)	Choice ($/cwt)	Select ($/cwt)	Spread ($/cwt)	Regime
Jul 18, 2025	387.96	362.55	25.41	Peak grilling
Aug 15, 2025	378.04	355.41	22.63	Quality bid
Sep 19, 2025	354.05	338.10	15.95	Compressing
Oct 17, 2025	339.27	322.04	17.23	Compressing
Nov 14, 2025	329.06	314.94	14.12	Holiday flat
Dec 19, 2025	323.50	311.10	12.40	Holiday flat
Jan 16, 2026	339.10	325.85	13.25	Winter run
Feb 20, 2026	360.15	346.40	13.75	Winter run
Mar 20, 2026	377.85	363.55	14.30	Lean->build
Apr 17, 2026	384.13	377.40	6.73	Compressed
May 22, 2026	389.89	386.29	3.60	Compressed (trough)
Jun 10, 2026	393.28	375.70	17.58	Quality bid (regime entrenched)

Interpretation: the spread has gone from a 19-week compression that bottomed at $3.60 on May 22 to $10.01 on June 5 and $17.58 on June 10 — a near-vertical re-steepening that confirms the seasonal grilling-quality bid has returned with force. If it holds in the mid-teens through late June, the projected per-head grid premium at peak summer spreads points toward the $130-$170/head range on top-quartile cohorts, a level last seen in the mid-2025 peak-grilling window.

Worked Numerical Example — Grid Premium to Calf Bid

Take a standard fed steer: 900-lb hot carcass, 65% Choice-and-better, 30% CAB-eligible, 5% Prime, 5% YG 4-5 heavy-discount (up from ~0% a year ago on the +40-lb weight overhang). At this week’s $17.58 spread, the grid Choice-and-CAB premium computes to roughly ($10.50 x 270 lb CAB-eligible) + ($26 x 45 lb Prime) – ($16 x 45 lb YG4/5) = $2,835 + $1,170 – $720 = $3,285, or about $365/head of gross grid premium on the top-quartile cohort — roughly $1.62/cwt of CAB premium captured at this spread. That is up from about $230/head at last week’s $10.01 spread and roughly $108/head at the late-April $3.60 spread. Passed back through the 70% packer-to-feedlot pass-through and the 5-9 month lag, the standard $0.65-$0.85/cwt-per-dollar coefficient puts this at roughly +$11 to +$15/cwt of forward support on verified-program 600-lb steer bids, or +$66 to +$90/head — the largest grid-driven tailwind in this cycle to date, with the standing caveat that commodity calves capture only about 30% of it.

SIDEBAR — CHOICE-SELECT SPREAD -> MONTANA CALF BID (Section 16 reprise)
This week: $17.58/cwt (vs $10.01 prior week; 4-wk avg ~$12.20)
Per $1/cwt move: $0.65-$0.85/cwt on 600-lb calf . $4-$5/head verified-program
Direction this week: STRONGLY BULLISH (widest of cycle; regime entrenched)
Lag: 5-9 months

Plain language: the grid pays packers more for Prime, CAB, and Choice carcasses and docks them for Select, heavy (YG 5), and no-roll cattle. The 70% pass-through means about seventy cents of every grid dollar the packer captures eventually reaches the feedyard, and from there a known coefficient ($0.65-$0.85/cwt per dollar of spread) reaches the calf — on a 5-9 month lag, because the calf you sell this fall is the carcass that grades next winter. At a $17.58 spread, that chain is worth roughly $40-$90/head on a verified-Choice Montana calf; the commodity calf captures only about 30% of it, which is the whole case for verifying quality and enrolling calves in a program.

17  Rancher Share of Retail Beef and Price Transmission Index (PTI)

The most recent confirmed USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) Meat Price Spreads release (updated May 12, 2026, carrying the series through April 2026) put the all-fresh rancher share of the retail beef dollar at approximately 42.7% in April 2026 — farm value near $3.90/lb against an all-fresh retail value near $9.13/lb on the standardized steer-to-retail yield basis. April farm-level cattle prices rose 4.8% from March and were 17.7% higher year-over-year; retail beef and veal rose 3.1% from March and 14.8% year-over-year. The next monthly ERS release, carrying May data, posts in mid-June; it had not yet been ingested into the Honest Cattle rancher-share pipeline for this run, so the April actual stands as the most recent confirmed figure.

Rancher share = farm value / retail value = 42.7% in April 2026. The 5-year (2021-2025) average all-fresh rancher share sits near 39.5%. The Price Transmission Index (PTI) = current rancher share – 5-year average = 42.7% – 39.5% = +3.2pp, a GREEN threshold call (above the 41% green line; the color scale is Red below 39%, Yellow 39-41%, Green above 41%).

Month-over-month, the April share expanded roughly +0.7pp from March (about 42.0% to 42.7%). Year-over-year, the share is up roughly +1.0pp, because farm cattle prices (+17.7% YoY) outran retail beef (+14.8% YoY) — the cattle-cycle farm-value rally is transmitting through to the rancher faster than the stickier retail price. This week’s Choice/Select blowout reinforces the farm-value side, supporting Choice carcass values directly.

SIDEBAR — PTI -> MONTANA CALF BID
Rancher share this month: 42.7% (5-yr avg 39.5%) — April 2026 ERS release (updated May 12); May release pending
PTI: +3.2pp
Direction: BULLISH (GREEN, >41%) — supports the rebuild-and-retention thesis
Per 1pp negative PTI: -$0.50 to -$1.00/cwt . -$3 to -$6/head on 600-lb calf
At +3.2pp positive PTI: +$1.60 to +$3.20/cwt . +$10 to +$19/head on 600-lb calf
Lag: 4-8 weeks

In plain language: the rancher share is the share of the retail beef dollar that makes it back to the farm gate, and the PTI is simply that share minus its 5-year average. A positive (GREEN) PTI means the rancher is capturing more of the retail dollar than usual — a bullish, persistent tailwind. At +3.2pp the arithmetic (about $0.50-$1.00/cwt per point) is worth roughly +$1.60 to +$3.20/cwt, or +$10 to +$19/head, on a 600-lb Montana calf over the next 4-8 weeks. Cross-reference the live tile at honestcattle.net/montana-cattle-markets-2/ for the next-day rancher share, PTI, and threshold color.

18  Sentiment Score

Honest Cattle weekly sentiment holds at 7.0/10, unchanged from last week. The hold reconciles to the Net Calf-Bid Signal Table below. The week’s structural signals strengthened — the Choice/Select spread blew out to $17.58 (the widest of the cycle), the screwworm outbreak spread north to six confirmed U.S. cases, the feeder/corn footing stayed cheap, drought eased a third week, and the August live board stabilized — yet three offsets argue against stepping the score up: the spread widening is as much Select weakness as Choice strength (a quality-differentiation signal, not a broad demand surge), the all-grade cutout and packer margin softened, and the June 19 Cattle on Feed report is four days out and gates Q4. Section 17’s +3.2pp GREEN PTI is a required input and remains one of the unambiguously bullish signals, contributing roughly +0.4 of the score.

The model-implied sentiment from the Net Signal Table is approximately 6.9; Dirk’s tactile read sits at 7.0, a slim premium for the strengthening screwworm supply tail and the durable cheap-corn footing. This is a week where Dirk holds rather than runs further ahead of the model — the bullish spread and screwworm would ordinarily push him toward 7.5, but the imminent placement number counsels banking the level and waiting for June 19 before adding. The cross-currents are real: the Select-led cutout softness, carcass weights +40 lb above year-ago, a packer margin near -$20/cwt, and the record surge in imported lean beef (Section 15) as a mild offset on the cull-cow and grinding side. None of those cross-currents touch the fed-Choice steer that drives the feeder-calf bid, which is why the near-term net stays clearly positive.

NET CALF-BID SIGNAL — $/cwt and $/head on 600-lb Montana calf
Choice-Select spread:    +$3.00/cwt   +$18/head   (5-9 mo lag; REGIME ENTRENCHED, $17.58)
Slaughter + placements:  +$0.50/cwt   +$3/head    (4 wk – 9 mo lag; -7 to -8% YoY kill vs June 19 gate)
Feeder/corn + PGM:       +$0.75/cwt   +$4/head    (1-4 wk lag; ratio 86.6, PGM -$20)
Stock vs bred share:     +$0.75/cwt   +$5/head    (current cull-cow firm; forward ample)
PTI:                     +$2.40/cwt   +$14/head   (4-8 wk lag; +3.2pp GREEN)
——————————————————————
NET (near-term, <=4 wk):   +$2.75/cwt   +$17/head
NET (mid-term, 4-12 wk):   +$1.75/cwt   +$10/head
NET (forward, 5-9 mo):     -$0.50/cwt   -$3/head  (placement overhang, largely offset by spread + screwworm supply tail)
Plus: screwworm supply-tightening tail (not in 5-signifier total): +$3 to +$10/head forward, wide band

Reading the Net Signal Table in plain language: it adds up the five standardized signifiers — the Choice/Select spread, the slaughter-and-placement balance, the feeder/corn ratio with packer gross margin (PGM), the stock-cow-versus-bred-cow share, and the Price Transmission Index (PTI) — into a single net dollar pressure on a 600-lb Montana calf at three time horizons. Near-term (next four weeks) the net reads clearly bullish at about +$2.75/cwt (+$17/head) as the blown-out spread, the GREEN PTI, and the cheap-corn footing outweigh the soft all-grade cutout. Mid-term stays positive at about +$1.75/cwt. The forward 5-9 month read is only mildly negative at about -$0.50/cwt because the April placement cohort still floods the Q4 window — but that is largely offset by the entrenched spread regime and the strengthening screwworm supply tail, an improvement from last week’s -$1.00 forward read.

Sentiment reconciliation: the published 7.0 sits about +0.1 above the model-implied 6.9 — that slim gap is the Dirk-tactile premium for the screwworm watershed and the durable corn-cost footing. The near-term and mid-term nets are solidly positive; the forward net is only mildly negative and improving; and that combination — bullish now, constructive forward, with a strengthening supply tail but an imminent placement gate — justifies holding the score at 7.0 and holding all three quarterly bands for the June 19 placement read rather than stepping either up this week.

19  Risks and Watch Items for the Week Ahead

• June 19 Cattle on Feed (May placements) — the dominant gate. A second heavy placement print would reinforce the Q4 tonnage overhang and cap the back-half bid; a placement pullback would open the door to a Q4 upward adjustment. Everything in the quarterly bands waits on this number.
• Screwworm spread and movement restrictions (highest-impact wild card). The outbreak already moved north to La Salle County. Any new detection farther from the zone, or broad intrastate/interstate movement restrictions, would be sharply bullish for clean-source feeder supply but could trigger demand-side volatility. Watch APHIS situation updates and Texas Animal Health Commission orders daily.
• Choice/Select spread durability. At $17.58 the spread is the widest of the cycle, but the widening is partly Select weakness; watch whether Choice can hold near $393 and whether the spread sustains the mid-teens through late June, which would lock the verified-quality premium.
• August live cattle board. LEQ26 stabilized at $241.17 this week; a renewed deferred-live slide would cap how far the cheap corn can lift feeder bids, since feedyards bid feeders off the live deferreds.
• Corn weather rally. July corn at $4.12-1/2 is pricing a benign growing season; any Corn Belt heat-and-dry threat that reverses the cheap-corn footing would pull feeder support back out within days.
• Montana turn-out moisture. A continued dry turn-out accelerates and bunches summer calf marketings, pressuring local basis even with a firm board.

Translation to Montana calf bids. The asymmetry remains wide: the June 19 placement number and the screwworm spread can move the forward Montana bid $10-$30/head in either direction. Producers should price the rally where they can and keep source-and-quality verification current to capture the clean-source and Choice premiums if the bullish tail plays out.

20  Sources

• CME/Barchart via Brownfield Ag News — Closing Grain and Livestock Futures, June 12, 2026 (Aug feeder GFQ26 $357.42; Aug live LEQ26 $241.17; July corn ZCN26 $4.12-1/2; July soybeans $11.13-1/2; July wheat $5.84-1/2).
• USDA AMS National Daily Boxed Beef Cutout (LM_XB403), June 10, 2026 most recent confirmed daily (Choice $393.28, Select $375.70, spread $17.58, 107 loads; five-day averages Choice $393.27 / Select $381.04; daily series June 5-10 via USDA AMS / IndexBox).
• USDA AMS / National Beef Wire — cash fed cattle and weekly FI slaughter, week ending June 13, 2026 (cash ~$256 live / $405-$406 dressed; FI cattle slaughter ~524,000 head).
• USDA AMS 5-Area Weekly Direct Slaughter (AMS_2477) and weekly carcass-weight series, June 2026 (steer/heifer ~948 lb, +40 lb YoY; 2026 YTD +~32 lb).
• USDA AMS Montana Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (AMS_1778), Billings complex, week of May 31-June 6, 2026 (2,293 head; feeder cattle 543 head / 23.7%; feeder split 39% steers / 44% heifers / 16% bulls; >600 lb 66%) and AMS_1778 weighted-average prices, week ending May 16, 2026.
• USDA AMS Texas Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (AMS_1955); Producers Livestock Auction, San Angelo, TX; Brazos Valley Livestock Commission, Bryan, TX (open-cow reference, Boner #2 $158-$170/cwt).
• USDA APHIS — New World screwworm situation updates (first U.S. detection Zavala County June 3 and June 5; additional cases June 8 La Salle County and Andrews County dog; total six U.S. cases as of June 9, 2026); CDC New World Screwworm situation summary / Emergency Operations Center activation; Texas Gov. Abbott statewide disaster proclamation.
• U.S. Drought Monitor, most recent valid June 9, 2026: Lower-48 coverage 56.16% (-2.22pp WoW from 58.38%).
• USDA ERS Meat Price Spreads (updated May 12, 2026, through April 2026) and ERS Food Price Outlook (April farm +4.8% MoM / +17.7% YoY; retail beef/veal +3.1% MoM / +14.8% YoY); next monthly release (May data) pending mid-June.
• U.S. beef trade Q1 2026 — USDA-FAS / Ohio State Extension: imports ~1.7B lb (+15.3% YoY); Brazil 394M lb (out-of-quota 26.4% tariff, quota filled early January); Australia 334M lb (+12%); Mexico beef 197M lb (+23%). Meatingplace / Capital Press — Mexican cattle-to-beef substitution. Reuters / Beef Central / DTN — proposed beef tariff-rate-quota suspension (flagged mid-May 2026, unresolved).
• Honest Cattle internal references: montana-cattle-markets-2 (rancher share / PTI live tile); ten-year-history-of-snowpack-in-park-county-montana; feedlot-pricing-grids.

Comparison to Prior Week (June 6 -> June 13)

This report has been reviewed against the prior week’s HC Weekly Market Forecast (Week Ending June 6, 2026). The following changes were identified. The structural tailwinds strengthened: the Choice/Select spread blew out to its widest of the cycle, the screwworm outbreak spread north to six confirmed U.S. cases, drought eased a third straight week, and feeders firmed a second week on cheap corn while the live board stabilized. Sentiment holds at 7.0; all three quarterly bands HELD pending the June 19 Cattle on Feed report.

Metric	Week Ending June 6	Week Ending June 13	Change
Aug feeder cattle (GFQ26)	$353.90	$357.42	+$3.52 (+1.0%)
Aug live cattle (LEQ26)	$241.65	$241.17	-$0.48 (-0.2%)
July corn (ZCN26)	$4.17-1/2	$4.12-1/2	-$0.04-3/4 (-1.1%)
Feeder/corn ratio	84.8	86.6	+1.8 (feed stays cheap)
Cash fed cattle (live bulk)	$257	$256	-$1
Nebraska dressed bulk	$405-$407	$405-$406	steady
Choice cutout	$392.70 (Jun 5)	$393.28 (Jun 10)	+$0.58
Select cutout	$382.69 (Jun 5)	$375.70 (Jun 10)	-$6.99
Choice/Select spread	$10.01	$17.58	+$7.57 (widest of cycle)
FI slaughter (week)	~533,000	~524,000	-~9,000 (-7 to -8% YoY)
Carcass weight (steers/heifers)	~955 lb	~948 lb	June data; +40 lb YoY
Packer gross margin	-$12 to -$15	-$18 to -$22	~ -$5 (Select-led)
US drought (Lower 48)	58.38%	56.16%	-2.22pp (3rd wk easing)
Screwworm	2 U.S. cases (Zavala Co.)	6 U.S. cases (north to La Salle Co.)	escalation / spread
PTI	+3.2pp GREEN (April actual)	+3.2pp GREEN (April actual)	held; May release pending
Sentiment	7.0	7.0	unchanged
Quarterly bands	Q3 ADJUSTED UP; Q2/Q4 HELD	all HELD	banked; gated by June 19