2026-06-22 Honest Cattle Weekly Market Forecast

01  Executive Summary

This report has been reviewed against the prior week’s HC Weekly Market Forecast (Week Ending June 13, 2026, published June 15). The week’s defining event was the June 18 USDA Cattle on Feed report, and it broke bullish on the very number that has gated this forecast for a month. May placements totaled 1.704 million head, down 10% from a year ago, against a trade expectation near 94.5% of last year (about -5.5%) — the larger surprise of the report. Fewer cattle placed in May means fewer fed cattle to market this autumn, a direct tightening of the Q4 marketing window that has carried a placement overhang since April. On-feed inventory was 11.682 million head (+2% YoY) and May marketings fell 12% to the second-lowest May total since the series began in 1996.

On the board, August feeder cattle (GFQ26) settled $366.60/cwt at the June 18 settlement — the last full session before the Juneteenth holiday closed markets June 19 — up $9.18/cwt (+2.6%) on the week from $357.42. August live cattle (LEQ26) settled $246.62/cwt, up $5.45/cwt (+2.3%) from $241.17, and July corn (ZCN26) firmed 5 cents to $4.17-1/2. The feeder/corn ratio eased up to 87.8. Both cattle complexes rallied together this week, a change from the split tape of recent weeks, and the bullish placement number landed after the June 18 close — supportive for the sessions that open the publication week.

Cash fed cattle jumped to $258-$260 live (Friday June 20 late sales at $260) from $256 the prior week, with northern dressed at $405-$410 — a clearly higher, packer-chasing trade. Federally inspected slaughter ran roughly 526,000 head, about steady with the prior week and still around 6-8% under year-ago. The Choice/Select spread held its high-teens quality-bid regime at $17.24 (June 17). The Price Transmission Index holds at +3.2pp GREEN on the most recent actual data (April 2026 ERS). Honest Cattle weekly sentiment rises to 7.5/10 from 7.0: the bullish placement resolution, the board and cash rally, the entrenched spread, and a screwworm footprint now reaching New Mexico together outweigh the still-negative packer margin and record carcass weights. Q4 2026 is ADJUSTED UP as the placement overhang resolves; Q2 and Q3 are HELD. This is the first report on the v1.6 format, which splits the quarterly bands by weight class, scores past accuracy, and adds futures/options and video-auction coverage.

02  2026 Montana Quarterly Forecast

The 2026 Montana quarterly calf-price bands below are the single most decision-relevant output of this forecast for cow-calf producers. They express expected $/cwt ranges for Montana calves, steers and heifers, with a status tag relative to the prior week. This week Q4 is ADJUSTED UP as the June 18 Cattle on Feed report resolved the placement overhang bullishly; Q2 and Q3 are HELD.

Why we now split the band (new this week). A single 550–650 band hides a real price gradient. On recent Northern Plains video and barn sales, 550–599 lb steers have been running roughly $30–$50/cwt over 600–649 lb steers — on a 575-lb calf that is well over $200/head. Lighter calves carry more demand per pound (more cheap gain left to put on), and a wide band averages that premium away. Splitting the forecast into 550–599 and 600–649 lets you read the actual bid for the weight you are shipping, and it matches how the tighter weight classes now report on the Honest Cattle auction-trends and video pages.

Q2 2026 — HELD. 550–599 steers $490–$520 (mid $505); 600–649 steers $460–$490 (mid $475). The Q2 cohort is largely committed and the window is closing out the June grass-yearling and bawling-calf trade. August feeder futures at $366.60 imply a basis-stable Montana 600-lb steer bid in the $460–$490/cwt range — squarely on the 600–649 band — with cheap corn preserving feedyard bidding room. The lighter 550–599 calves carry the ~$30/cwt premium on top. Holding both bands.

Q3 2026 — HELD. 550–599 steers $500–$535 (mid $518); 600–649 steers $470–$505 (mid $488). The hard board rally (August feeders +$9.18/+2.6%) and the higher cash trade push the implied August-delivery bid toward the upper half of each band, which already contains this strength. The Choice/Select spread held the high teens and the screwworm supply tail widened — both constructive — but the bands capture it without a move.

Q4 2026 — ADJUSTED UP. 550–599 steers $460–$505 (mid $483, from a single-band mid of $467); 600–649 steers $435–$478 (mid $457). This is the week’s substantive change. The April placement bulge that flooded the Q4 marketing window has been answered by a May placement number 10% below year-ago and well below the ~5.5% decline the trade expected — fewer cattle placed in May are fewer fed cattle to market in October–December, the heart of the Q4 window. Layered on the entrenched Choice/Select regime, the screwworm supply tail, and the strong board, the gate that has held Q4 in place for a month has now cleared to the upside. Reputation premium on verified Montana programs at these $4-handle calf prices remains $0.12–$0.18/lb (2.5%–3.5% of value).

03  CME Futures and Corn — June 18, 2026 Settlements

Lead with corn, then the cattle rally. July corn (ZCN26) on the Chicago Board of Trade settled $4.17-1/2/bu at the June 18 settlement, up about 5 cents (+1.2%) on the week from $4.12-1/2 as the grain complex firmed modestly off its lows; even so, corn sits near the bottom of its recent range and the cost of gain remains favorable for feeders. Note on timing: June 19 was the Juneteenth federal holiday and markets were closed, so June 18 (Thursday) is the most recent full settlement, and the bullish Cattle on Feed report was released after that close.

August feeder cattle (GFQ26, Chicago Mercantile Exchange) settled $366.60/cwt, up $9.18/cwt (+2.6%) on the week from $357.42 — a powerful third consecutive weekly advance. August live cattle (LEQ26) settled $246.62/cwt, up $5.45/cwt (+2.3%) from $241.17. The change in character matters: where recent weeks saw feeders rally while the live board lagged, this week both complexes climbed together, with the live board’s recovery removing the ceiling that had capped feeder bids and the trade positioning ahead of a Cattle on Feed report that then printed friendly.

The feeder/corn ratio — August feeder price divided by July corn price — firmed to 87.8 from 86.6, holding well above the 10-year normal range of roughly 55-65. This week the ratio rose on the feeder leg (feeders +2.6% versus corn +1.2%) rather than on a corn break, so it now reflects genuine feeder strength layered on still-cheap feed. Read as a level, 87.8 is a flag that feeders are historically dear relative to corn; read as a move driven by a confirmed-bullish supply story, it reflects a market repricing the feeder calf higher on tighter fed-cattle supply.

For the calf a Montana producer sells this summer and fall, the combination of a low cost of gain and a rallying live board is the most constructive futures backdrop of the quarter: feedyards can finish cheaply and now have firmer forward fed prices to lock against. The cautions still ride along — a corn weather rally (Section 21) would lift the cost of gain, and a board that has run hard three weeks can correct — but the structural read after the placement number is decidedly firmer.

Translation to Montana calf bids. The feeder rally and firm live board lift the Montana 600-lb steer bid to roughly $460-$490/cwt against the August board, a $10-$15/cwt improvement in feedyard bidding tolerance versus last week. Montana auctions reprice the futures board within hours, so this flows through within the next sale week (1-2 week lag), and the post-report sessions should carry the bullish placement read into the bids.

SIDEBAR — FEEDER/CORN RATIO -> MONTANA CALF BID
This week: 87.8 (10-yr avg ~55-65; >65 = feeders historically expensive vs corn)
Change from prior week: +1.2 points (feeders +2.6%, corn +1.2%)
Per 1.0-point move: +/-$0.20-$0.35/cwt . +/-$1.20-$2.10/head on 600-lb calf
Direction this week: BULLISH (feeder-led; cheap-feed footing intact; live board firmer)
Lag: 1-2 weeks

Reading the sidebar in plain language: the feeder/corn ratio is the August feeder price divided by the July corn price, a quick gauge of how expensive calves are to feed. Each one-point move is worth roughly $0.20-$0.35 per hundredweight, or about $1.20-$2.10 per head on a 600-lb calf. This week’s +1.2-point firming is worth on the order of $0.25-$0.45/cwt of bidding tolerance ($1.50-$2.70/head). The important nuance: this firming came from feeders rising on a bullish supply story, not from corn collapsing, which is a more durable kind of support than a one-week feed break.

04  Futures and Options Activity

This section reads what the paper market is doing beyond the settle price in Section 3 — open interest, trader positioning, and hedging — because those structural signals lead cash by days to weeks. Source and date: CFTC Commitments of Traders (disaggregated, futures-only), report as of Tuesday, June 16, 2026 (released June 22). Note this snapshot is the Tuesday before the June 18 Cattle on Feed report, so it captures positioning into the run, not the post-report reaction — which makes the build it shows all the more notable.

Open interest built across the board on the rally. Total futures open interest rose in all three markets week-over-week: feeder cattle (CME) 58,590 (+2.9%), live cattle (CME) 329,990 (+4.0%), corn (CBOT) 1,958,771 (+2.5%). Rising price on rising OI is fresh money committing — the durable kind of advance — not short-covering that burns out. With both cattle markets adding open interest together, the whole complex is being repriced on the tighter Q4 pipeline, not just the front feeder month.

Managed-money positioning and concentration. Funds extended their cattle longs into the report. Live-cattle managed-money net long grew to +122,805 contracts (from +109,072 the prior week; 132,320 long vs just 9,515 short) — an even more lopsided, crowded long. Feeder-cattle net long rose to +13,356 (from +11,392; 21,263 long vs 7,907 short). That confirms the bullish trend, but the crowding is the principal near-term risk: the bullish Cattle on Feed catalyst printed into an already one-sided long, so any disappointment makes long-liquidation the path of least resistance and can pull the board down faster than cash justifies. Corn told the opposite story — managed money flipped to a net short of −49,487 (from roughly flat at −1,306; 293,859 long vs 343,346 short), i.e., funds turned bearish corn, which reinforces the cheap cost-of-gain tailwind under feeder demand.

Hedging and options. Into a hard rally, producer and commercial hedgers typically step up downside protection — buying puts to lock the higher board without capping the upside — and feedyards add live-side coverage. A rising put premium / steepening put skew signals protection being bought, which is prudent here: at $366.60 feeders and $246.62 live, the board has handed sellers a level worth defending. For the Montana producer with grass yearlings to price for August–September, the paper market is offering both a high outright board and, via puts or LRP (Livestock Risk Protection), a way to floor it.

Translation to Montana calf bids. Building OI plus extending fund longs argue the board strength carries into the post-report sale weeks, supporting the $460–$490/cwt Montana 600-lb steer bid near-term — and the fund short in corn reinforces the cheap-feed support. The offsetting risk is concentration: the crowded live-cattle long (+122,805) means a sharp correction or long-liquidation is the most likely way the near-term bid gives back $10–$20/head — exactly why pricing or flooring a portion of the cut on this rally (Section 14, decision 2) is the disciplined move. Lag: 1–2 weeks for positioning to flow into the cash bid.

05  Cash Fed Cattle and Basis Context

Cash fed cattle traded sharply higher this week. After a quiet open with limited Monday and Tuesday business, the trade developed in $2 increments through the week, with live sales reported at $258 by mid-afternoon Friday and $260 on late Friday (June 20) sales; the bulk settled around $258-$260 live, up $2-$4 from last week’s $256. Dressed sales in the north ran $405-$410, with steers grading over 80% Choice bringing $410 — up $3-$5 from the prior week. That is a clearly higher, packer-chasing trade: with marketings tight (Section 10) and showlists current, feeders held the leverage and packers paid up to keep chains full.

Basis context for Montana: with August live cattle futures at $246.62 and cash at $258-$260 live, the live-cattle cash-to-August basis is roughly +$12-$14/cwt — still a wide positive basis but narrowing as the deferred board rallies toward cash. For the Montana feeder seller the more relevant basis is the lightweight-calf premium to the feeder board: Montana 600-lb steers in the most recent weighted-average data traded near $451/cwt cash against an August feeder board of $366.60, a basis of roughly +$85-$90/cwt that reflects the steep premium light calves carry over heavier board-weight feeders.

Translation to Montana calf bids. A $258-$260 cash trade, up $2-$4 on the week with the August board rallying, directly lifts feedyard willingness to place and to pay. Higher current cash plus the bullish placement read keeps the near-term Montana calf bid supported in the $460-$490/cwt zone, with the cash rally the proximate driver (2-4 week lag to the feeder bid).

06  Feedlot Profitability and Break-Even

The break-even math, run on actual purchase data rather than an estimate: a 750-lb feeder placed in roughly February 2026 at the then-prevailing Montana/regional placement price near $385-$400/cwt (from AMS_1778 weighted averages in that window) carried a delivered cost near $3,000-$3,100/head. Add roughly $0.92-$1.08/lb of cost of gain over ~500 lb to a 1,250-lb finish — held down by the cheap-corn footing — and the all-in break-even lands near $238-$246/cwt on the finished steer.

Against this week’s cash fed cattle at $258-$260 live, that cohort is in the black by roughly $180-$300/head before risk-management gains or losses — an improvement of $50-$90/head from last week as the cash rally lifted the realized price while the cost of gain stayed low. The marketing window feedyards are targeting is August-September delivery, and the August live board’s rally to $246.62 raises the forward price feedyards can lock, reinforcing the placement economics rather than capping them as it did in recent weeks.

Translation to Montana calf bids. Improving current feeding margins, a low cost of gain, and a higher forward live board are together the strongest placement-economics backdrop of the quarter: feedyards earning more on cattle in the yard and able to lock better forward prices can bid up for replacements. That supports the $460-$490/cwt Montana 600-lb steer bid into the summer placement window (2-6 week lag).

07  Montana Weekly Auction Data (AMS_1778 and Regional)

Montana auction volume stayed in its early-summer wind-down. The most recent Montana Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (AMS_1778) covering the Billings-complex markets (week of May 31-June 6, 2026) reported total receipts of 2,293 head, with feeder cattle comprising 543 head (23.7% of receipts); within the feeder class the split ran 39% steers, 44% heifers, 16% bulls, and 1% beef/dairy, and feeders over 600 lb were 66% of the feeder run. Demand for quality feeder cattle stayed good and slaughter-cow prices held steady; with the futures board rallying since, the next reported Montana sales should reprice higher.

For weighted-average price detail, the most recent full AMS_1778 weighted-average report (week ending May 16, published May 18) remains the primary reference: Medium and Large 1 steers brought $572.95/cwt at 460-474 lb, $487.56 at 555-575 lb, $451.06 at 607-620 lb, $431.02 at 654-698 lb, and $383.32 at 752-783 lb; heifers brought $467.86 at 508-546 lb, $429.69 at 550-593 lb, $407.01 at 600-637 lb, and $391.25 at 653-688 lb. Note the calf-weight gradient embedded here: the 555-575 lb steers ($487.56) brought roughly $36/cwt over the 607-620 lb steers ($451.06) — the same lighter-over-heavier premium the new split bands in Section 2 are built to capture.

The 44% heifer share against the 39% steer share continues to run heavier on heifers than the 96-week 2-year average of 49.3% steers / 47.6% heifers / 2.8% bulls — steers below their two-year norm, the mirror image of continued heifer marketing. As in prior spring weeks, this is the eastern- and central-Montana grass-cattle pattern: producers shipping the heifer cohort into still-strong demand and a dry forage outlook rather than retaining. It is a current-liquidity signal, not a herd-rebuilding signal.

Translation to Montana calf bids. Thin summer volume plus good quality-feeder demand keeps the verified-calf bid firm, and with the board up $9 the futures-implied $460-$490/cwt range is the working anchor for the light-steer bid into the late-June trade. Continued heifer marketing slightly tightens the fall-retained female supply, a mild forward support.

08  Video Auction Results — Seasonal (North Central Region)

Summer video and internet auctions are in season (they run roughly April–October), and they are where a large share of Northern Plains calves actually trade for fall delivery. The figures below are drawn from the Honest Cattle video-auction feed (USDA AMS video reports for Northern Livestock, Superior, and Western Video Market).

Read these as regional, not Montana-only. USDA video reports never break out a consignment’s state of origin — every Montana lot is grouped into a multi-state North Central region (CO, IA, MT, ND, NE, SD, WY); Montana’s own Northern Livestock sale reports the same way. The prices here are the North Central regional figure that includes Montana, deliberately filtered to drop the southern and eastern regions that would otherwise drag the number around. They are not a spot Montana cash bid.

The slide and forward delivery — read the price with these. Video calves sell ahead of delivery on a listed base weight with a price slide, so the printed price is not a delivered spot value. Terms differ by house and are worth comparing: Superior’s June sale carried a 0–3% pencil shrink with a 35¢/lb slide over 600 lb and 50¢/lb under 600 lb; Northern Livestock’s carried 0–3% shrink with a 12–28¢ slide over 600 lb and 24–44¢ under. The default video slide is one-way (it docks for overweight delivery but does not pay up for underweight) unless a two-way slide is negotiated — a real consideration for a Montana consignor estimating October weights off summer grass. Full house-by-house terms are on the Honest Cattle video page (montana-video-cattle-auction-trends).

Translation to Montana calf bids. The two independent reads bracket each other tightly — 550–599 steers near $518–$519/cwt and 600–649 near $471–$480 across both houses — and they confirm the same ~$40–$48/cwt lighter-over-heavier gradient the barn data and the new split bands show. Because these are forward-delivery, North Central regional prices, they sit above where a Montana barn calf trades spot today; read them as a constructive forward signal for fall delivery rather than a current bid. They reinforce the HELD Q3 and ADJUSTED-UP Q4 stance (the fall window is pricing firm), with the standing caveats that the figures are regional and the season runs only into October.

09  Boxed Beef Cutout and Packer Economics

The boxed beef cutout held its quality-bid regime this week rather than extending the prior week’s blowout. At the most recent confirmed daily close (June 17), the Choice cutout was $394.50/cwt and Select was $377.26/cwt, putting the Choice/Select spread at $17.24/cwt; the five-day averages were $394.61 Choice and $374.99 Select. The spread peaked near $19.58 on June 11 and has consolidated in the high teens since — Choice holding in the mid-$390s while Select trades in the mid-to-high $370s. After a 19-week compressed regime that bottomed at $3.60 in May, three-plus weeks in the mid-to-high teens confirm an entrenched quality-bid regime, the single most important structural development for verified Montana calves this quarter.

What the spread means: under $5/cwt signals undifferentiated demand; above $8/cwt, retailers are actively bidding for Choice and better for the summer grilling pull. At $17.24 the grid quality premium is dramatically expanded versus the spring compression. The character has shifted slightly from the prior week — this week’s hold came with Choice easing off its high and Select firming a touch, so the spread is consolidating at an elevated level rather than widening further, which is a healthier, more sustainable footing for the premium than a Select-collapse-driven blowout.

Packer economics stayed negative but improved at the margin. With the all-grade cutout near $387 against a dressed-equivalent cattle cost near $408-$410 (cash rallied this week), the packer gross margin sits roughly -$20 to -$24/cwt — a touch worse on the headline as cash outran the cutout, but the firm Choice cutout and the higher cash both reflect genuine demand pulling the whole complex up. Record carcass weights add sellable tonnage per head, partially cushioning the negative margin.

SIDEBAR — PACKER GROSS MARGIN -> MONTANA CALF BID
This week: approx -$20 to -$24/cwt (all-grade cutout ~$387 - fed cash dressed-equiv ~$408-410)
Change from prior week: roughly -$2/cwt (cash rallied faster than cutout)
Per $1/cwt expansion: +$0.20-$0.40/cwt . +$1.20-$2.40/head on 600-lb calf
Direction this week: NEUTRAL (margin negative; whole complex pulled up by demand)
Lag: 2-4 weeks

In plain language: the packer gross margin (PGM) is the boxed-beef cutout value minus what the packer paid for the live animal, per hundredweight of carcass. When it expands, packers bid more aggressively for fed cattle two-to-four weeks out, and that bidding reaches the feeder calf. This week the margin is modestly worse on the headline because cash rallied faster than boxes — but a higher cutout and a higher cash bid both reflect real demand, which is constructive, not bearish, for the calf seller.

SIDEBAR — CHOICE-SELECT SPREAD -> MONTANA CALF BID
This week: $17.24/cwt (vs $17.58 prior week; high-teens regime entrenched, 4-wk avg ~$15.10)
Per $1/cwt move: $0.65-$0.85/cwt on 600-lb calf . $4-$5/head verified-program
Direction this week: BULLISH (entrenched high-teens regime; consolidating at elevated level)
Lag: 5-9 months

Plain language on the spread sidebar: the Choice/Select spread is the price gap between Choice and Select boxed beef. Every $1/cwt that gap holds is worth roughly $0.65-$0.85/cwt, or $4-$5/head, on a verified-Choice-and-better 600-lb Montana calf — but only on calves enrolled in quality programs; commodity calves capture only about 30% of the move. With the spread holding $17.24 and entrenched, the verified-quality calf bid has real upside building on a 5-9 month lag. The worked grid translation is in Section 18.

10  Cattle Slaughter, Cattle on Feed, and Packer Margins

The June 18 USDA Cattle on Feed report is the structural centerpiece of this week. Cattle and calves on feed in feedlots of 1,000-plus head capacity totaled 11.682 million head on June 1, 2026, 2% above year-ago. The decisive number was placements: May placements totaled 1.704 million head, down 10% from a year ago, where the trade had expected roughly 94.5% of last year (about -5.5%). That makes the actual 90% read the larger surprise of the report and a directly bullish one — fewer cattle placed in May means fewer fed cattle coming to slaughter in the October-December window. By weight, May placements ran 320,000 head under 600 lb, 240,000 at 600-699 lb, 400,000 at 700-799 lb, 444,000 at 800-899 lb, 225,000 at 900-999 lb, and 75,000 at 1,000-plus lb. May marketings totaled 1.551 million head, down 12% and the second-lowest May since the series began in 1996.

Federally inspected (FI) cattle slaughter ran roughly 526,000 head for the week ending June 20, about steady with the prior week’s ~524,000 and still roughly 6-8% below year-ago, with the Juneteenth holiday on June 19 trimming the week’s kill days. A sustained slaughter shortfall of this size supports fed-cattle cash over a 4-8 week window, and this week’s cash rally to $258-$260 is that support showing up in real time.

Carcass weights remain the offsetting headwind: steer-and-heifer carcasses averaged roughly 948 lb in the most recent June data, about 40 lb above year-ago, putting roughly 4% more beef per head into the box and partially replacing the missing head count. But the placement number changes the forward read materially: where this section has carried a placement overhang as the dominant forward risk for a month, the May print resolves that risk to the upside — the cohort flowing to slaughter in 5-9 months is now confirmed smaller than feared.

SIDEBAR — SLAUGHTER + PLACEMENTS -> MONTANA CALF BID
Slaughter this week: ~526,000 head (delta YoY: ~ -6 to -8%)
May placements (June 18 COF): 1.704M head, -10% YoY (trade expected ~ -5.5%) -> BULLISH surprise
May marketings: 1.551M head, -12% YoY (2nd-lowest May since 1996)
Per 1% slaughter decline: +$0.50-$1.00/cwt . +$3-$6/head (4-8 wk lag)
Per 1% placement decline: +$0.50-$1.50/cwt . +$3-$9/head (5-9 mo lag)
Combined direction this week: BULLISH near-term AND forward (placement overhang resolved)

In plain terms: FI means federally inspected — the weekly national kill; placements are the cattle moved into feedlots, which set the slaughter supply 5-9 months out. A placement number 10% below year-ago, and well below what the trade expected, means the supply of fed cattle in the Q4 marketing window is tighter than the market had priced — directly bullish for fed cash then and, passed back, for the Montana calf that becomes one of those fed cattle. The standing offset is record carcass weights adding about 4% more beef per head, but the head-count math now runs clearly in the calf seller’s favor.

11  Texas Auction Data and Secondary Market

Texas auctions are in their summer wind-down, and the region’s headline remains animal-health, not price. Producers Livestock Auction in San Angelo (the West Texas reference) reported calves and yearlings firm on good demand for the better calves at its most recent sale, with light summer receipts. Navasota Livestock Auction (the primary San Jacinto County proxy via AMS_1955) continues its weaned-calf sales on light early-summer receipts.

The screwworm situation widened again this week (see Section 16), with new detections in Gillespie County in the Texas Hill Country and the first confirmed New Mexico case. That remains well west and south of the Navasota / Brazos Valley trade and has not shown up as a price effect at the eastern Texas barns, but the movement-and-inspection overhang across the southern cattle network keeps broadening.

Secondary-market reference for open cows: Brazos Valley Livestock Commission (Bryan, TX) remains the HC reference because Navasota does not separately report cull-cow detail in AMS_1955. Brazos Valley open-cow trade held firm, with Boner #2 cows in the $158-$170/cwt range, consistent with the firm national cull-cow tone.

Translation to Montana calf bids. Texas matters to Montana through the national feeder pipeline. A screwworm-driven movement overhang now reaching the Hill Country and New Mexico, layered on the 11-month Mexican cattle import suspension, keeps tightening the southern feeder supply that competes with Montana calves — a strengthening forward support for the Montana bid (5-9 month lag), discussed in full in Section 16.

12  Regional Weather Summary

Northern Plains / Montana: late-June conditions across the Park County and central-Montana grazing country ran seasonal, with afternoon convection and scattered thunderstorms typical for the period and no operationally significant heat-stress or feeding-disruption events this week. The relevant operational signal for the cow-calf producer is moisture timing into the growing season, covered in Section 13 and on your county page.

Southern Plains / Texas: the Drought Monitor’s June 18 regional updates noted continued Midwest improvement and the onset of the Southwest monsoon assessment; central- and eastern-Texas forage stayed better than the southern-Plains average. The Texas weather story was again overshadowed by the screwworm response (Section 16).

Translation to Montana calf bids. Benign Montana weather means no weather-driven forced marketing this week and no heat-stress demand distortion — neutral for the near-term bid. The forward driver is summer moisture: a dry turn-out (Section 13) pulls calf marketings forward and pressures fall bids; timely rain delays marketing and supports them. For county-level SNOTEL, soil moisture, Drought Monitor category, and the NWS 7-day, see your county page on honestcattle.net.

13  Moisture, Snowpack, and Range Condition — See Your County Page

At the national scale, U.S. Drought Monitor coverage has been easing through June. The most recent confirmed Lower-48 figure is 56.16% in drought (valid June 9), and the June 18 release (valid June 16) continued the easing trend with notable Midwest improvement, leaving roughly the mid-50s percent of the Lower 48 in some drought category. The directional trend is favorable for the national forage base, though more than half the Lower 48 remains in drought and Montana’s range outlook is the operative concern for fall calf supply.

Montana’s snowpack season is over for 2026; the relevant variable now is growing-season soil moisture and range green-up. The continued heifer-heavy Montana auction composition is itself a range signal: when ranchers keep shipping the female cohort rather than retaining, they are reading a dry turn-out and managing stocking rate down. That on-the-ground behavior matters more than any single station reading.

Translation to Montana calf bids. Easing national drought is a modest positive for the national forage base and feeder demand. But a dry Montana turn-out, signaled by continued heifer marketing, biases Montana calf marketings earlier and heavier this summer, which can pressure August-September local bids even as the futures board firms. Producers should watch their own county page for the SNOTEL-to-10-year comparison, soil-moisture percentile, Drought Monitor category, and range/pasture condition that drive their specific turn-out decision.

14  Range Forage Outlook and Implications for Feeder Marketing

The forage signal this week is mixed-to-cautious for Montana. National drought kept easing, which helps the broad feeder-demand picture, but the Montana-specific read — continued heifer-heavy marketing and a dry turn-out across much of the eastern and central range — points to constrained summer carrying capacity. When grass is short, calves come to town earlier and heavier, and the producer who plans the marketing date deliberately captures more of the still-strong bid than the one forced to react.

The constructive offset is now the strongest it has been this quarter: the board rallied hard, May placements came in 10% below year-ago, cash jumped to $258-$260, the Choice/Select spread held the high teens, and the screwworm supply tail keeps widening. The forage decision is about timing into a firm and now confirmed-tighter market, not about dumping into a falling one. Here is what the range signal changes, with pricing consequences:

1. Pregnancy-check and pull open cows now, not in August. With cull-cow values firm (Montana stock cows backed by Brazos Valley Boner #2 at $158-$170/cwt) and a dry turn-out, every open cow carried on short grass costs feed and forgoes a firm cull market. Moving opens now at ~$158-$170/cwt on a 1,300-lb cow captures roughly $2,050-$2,210/head before the summer cull run softens the market.
2. Book August-September delivery on grass yearlings against the rallied board. August feeders at $366.60 are up $9 on the week and the live board firmed with them; pricing or hedging a portion of the yearling cut now locks a three-week rally — and, per Section 4, does it while a crowded managed-money long leaves the board exposed to a correction. Waiting for a dry-pasture forced sale risks giving back $5-$15/cwt ($30-$90/head on a 700-lb yearling) if local basis weakens on bunched-up summer marketings.
3. Enroll the calf crop in a verified Choice/quality program before fall. With the Choice/Select spread holding $17.24 and a regime entrenched, the verified-quality premium is building at $4-$5/head per dollar of spread. At a sustained $15-$18 spread that is on the order of $40-$70/head of capturable premium on verified-Choice calves — money the commodity calf leaves on the table (it captures only ~30%).
4. Wean and precondition rather than sell bawling if grass allows even 30-45 days. At an 87.8 feeder/corn ratio, feedyards reward weight and health; a preconditioned, weaned calf at these prices typically earns $0.08-$0.15/lb over a bawling calf, roughly $48-$90/head on a 600-lb calf — provided you are not feeding purchased hay into a drought to do it.
5. Pre-position for a clean-source premium on the spreading screwworm story. The outbreak now reaches the Texas Hill Country and New Mexico. Verified Montana-origin, health-papered calves may command a modest clean-source premium as buyers shy from movement-restricted southern cattle. Have age-and-source and health verification in hand to capture an estimated $3-$10/head of emerging premium this fall.

Net range-forage read: plan the marketing date, price the rally where you can, verify quality and source, and move opens early. The market is firm, the placement number confirmed it is also tighter forward, and the structural tailwinds are strengthening; the risk is being forced rather than deliberate.

15  Bred Cattle and Cull Cow Data

Montana. The most recent AMS_1778 weighted-average composition (week ending May 16, published May 18) showed the replacement class running 58% stock cows, 8% bred cows, 2% bred heifers, 22% cow-calf pairs, and 11% heifer pairs, and the early-June Billings-complex runs continued to print heifer-heavy feeder marketing. The 58% stock-cow share within the replacement class confirms the spring open-cow turnover pattern: predominantly open females culled before grass turn-out — a current-year liquidity signal, not retained-bred marketings.

Texas. Brazos Valley Livestock Commission and Navasota continue to print a more open-cow-heavy spring composition than the Montana runs, with bred-cow share near the lower end of the spring window. Open-cow trade at Brazos Valley held firm with Boner #2 cows at $158-$170/cwt.

The two-way read. Stock-cow share (current-week cull signal): with stock cows dominating the replacement class and a heavy open-cow flow, a normal year would pressure cull-cow prices, but firm packer-cow demand is holding the cull market up. Bred-cow / bred-heifer share (forward calf-value signal): the combined bred share remains low (roughly 10% of the replacement class), well under the 60% threshold that would signal active retention — meaning forward calf supply 7-10 months out stays ample, a mild forward headwind rather than a tightening. The bullish placement number tightens the fed-cattle pipeline, but it does not yet show producers retaining females.

SIDEBAR — REPLACEMENT COMPOSITION -> CULL-COW + FORWARD CALF VALUE
This week: stock cows ~58% . bred cows ~8% . bred heifers ~2% (of replacement class; price detail AMS_1778 wk ending May 16; early-June Billings receipts wk ending June 6)
Cull-cow read (current-week): heavy open-cow flow, but firm packer-cow demand -> cull market FIRM, +$3 to +$8/cwt vs a normal spring ($40-$105/head on a 1,300-lb cow)
Forward calf read (7-10 months): combined bred share ~10% (<60%) -> delayed retention, forward calf supply ample -> -$2 to -$5/cwt (-$12 to -$30/head) in the 7-10 month window

In plain language: “stock cows” are open (non-pregnant) females being sold; “bred” cows and heifers are carrying a calf and signal whether ranchers are rebuilding the herd. A high stock-cow share in spring is a cull-now signal — firm packer demand means those culls are still cashing well. The low bred share tells you ranchers are not yet retaining females, so the calf supply 7-10 months out stays ample, a small drag on the forward calf bid rather than the tightening that aggressive retention would create.

16  New World Screwworm Status

The screwworm footprint widened again this week. The U.S. case count, which reached six confirmed cases by June 9 (two in Zavala County and additional Texas detections), continued to climb with new confirmations including a goat in Gillespie County in the Texas Hill Country — well north of the original southwest-Texas zone — and the reclassification of the earlier Andrews County dog as residing in Lea County, New Mexico, making it the first confirmed New Mexico case. The outbreak now spans Texas and New Mexico, and the northward and westward creep out of the original Zavala zone is the material change versus a week ago.

The federal-state response continued at full intensity. USDA maintained sterile-fly dispersal — roughly 2 million sterile screwworm flies by air twice weekly plus about 4 million per week through two dozen ground release chambers — the sterile-male technique that breaks the fly’s single-mating reproductive cycle. Governor Abbott’s statewide disaster declaration remains in force, county emergency declarations are in place, and the CDC’s Emergency Operations Center remains activated. The permanent Edinburg sterile-fly facility is not expected operational until fall 2027, and USDA has estimated an established outbreak could do roughly $1.8 billion in damage to the Texas economy.

Two points of perspective for the cattle market. First, screwworm does not infect meat — USDA has stated there is no food-supply-chain disruption; the risk is to live animals (and wildlife), and no locally acquired human cases have been reported. Second, this lands on top of an already-suspended border: Mexican cattle imports have been suspended for roughly 11 months, removing more than one million head per year from U.S. supply while the U.S. herd sits at a multi-decade low.

Translation to Montana calf bids. The net effect is structurally bullish for cattle supply and therefore for the Montana calf bid, and the tail strengthened again as the outbreak reached New Mexico and the Texas Hill Country. A widening U.S. presence raises the prospect of intrastate and interstate movement restrictions, inspection costs, and animal losses concentrated in the southern herd — tightening the already-thin national feeder pipeline that competes with Montana calves. Montana origin is geographically insulated, which can earn a modest clean-source premium. Quantified: a supply-tightening event of this type is worth an estimated +$3 to +$10/head of forward support on a 600-lb Montana calf over the 5-9 month window, with meaningful upside if movement restrictions broaden and two-way volatility if the outbreak triggers demand scares. This remains a dominant structural input behind the firm Q3 stance and, alongside the placement number, the Q4 upward adjustment.

17  Import and Tariff Landscape

The import story is the flip side of the screwworm coin. Because the southern border has been closed to Mexican live cattle for roughly 11 months, Mexican producers are increasingly sending the animal north as boxed beef rather than as a live feeder. Mexican beef shipments to the U.S. surged about 23% in the first four months of 2026 to roughly 197 million pounds — the largest percentage gain of any major supplier — and USDA-FAS forecasts Mexican beef exports up about 6% for the year. Behind that swing, an estimated one million head that would normally have crossed as feeders have been redirected into Mexican feedyards, and Mexican cattle slaughter is projected to climb about 5% in 2026. The cattle that cannot come as feeders are coming as meat.

That fits a record U.S. import year. Total U.S. beef imports ran roughly 1.7 billion pounds in the first quarter of 2026, up 15.3% year-over-year on top of a record 2025. By source: Brazil led at 394 million pounds (+8%), Australia 334 million (+12%), Mexico 197 million (+23%), with Argentina up sharply off a small base. The overwhelming majority of these imports are lean trimmings and processing beef — high-lean product that packers and grinders blend with fatty domestic fed-cattle trim to hit ground-beef specifications. That is the decisive point for a cow-calf producer: imported lean trim competes with the lean side of U.S. supply — cull cows and grinding beef — not with the high-quality fed Choice steer that anchors the Montana feeder-calf bid. U.S. exports keep sliding, which leaves more domestic product at home and reinforces the import pull.

On tariffs and types: Mexico and Canada ship duty-free under USMCA, and Australia enters effectively duty-free under its free-trade-agreement quota, so the surge from those three origins carries no tariff brake. Brazil is the exception — no U.S. free-trade agreement, competing in the ‘Other Countries’ tariff-rate quota of about 65,000 metric tons, which filled in the first week of January 2026; every pound Brazil has shipped since has carried the 26.4% out-of-quota tariff, and it kept shipping anyway because U.S. lean-trim demand is that strong. The live policy wildcard: the administration’s mid-May proposal to suspend the beef tariff-rate-quota limits for roughly 200 days — letting all suppliers ship at the lower in-quota rate to push back on record retail beef prices — remains unresolved after pushback from cattle producers and congressional members. It is a genuine policy risk worth tracking week to week.

Translation to Montana calf bids. The two halves cut in opposite directions and land on different cattle. The Mexican live-cattle suspension removes on the order of one million feeders a year from the U.S. pipeline — a persistent $3-$8/cwt structural support under feeder values, now extended indefinitely by the U.S. screwworm detections and squarely bullish for the Montana 600-lb calf. The offsetting surge in imported lean beef lands on the grinding and cull-cow complex: it caps how far ground-beef demand can lift cull-cow values and, if the proposed TRQ suspension proceeds, would add a modest dampener to retail-to-farm price transmission (the PTI in Section 19). Net: clearly supportive for the feeder calf you sell, a mild headwind for the cull cow you ship, and a tariff headline worth tracking (multi-quarter lag on both legs).

18  Packer Grid Pricing and Implications for Calf Prices

The packer grid is the mechanism that turns national beef-quality demand into a Montana calf bid. The standard early-summer 2026 grid prices premiums and discounts off the weekly negotiated cash base (now $258-$260 live / $408-$410 dressed): a Prime premium of roughly +$24-$28/cwt to base; a Certified Angus Beef (CAB) premium of roughly +$13-$17/cwt; Choice as the base reference; a Select discount of roughly -$17-$24/cwt; and a Standard/Utility/No-Roll discount of -$22 to -$35/cwt. Yield Grade (YG) 1-2 captures +$0 to +$2/cwt; YG 4 carries -$10 to -$18/cwt; and YG 5 carries the steep -$20 to -$35/cwt heavy-carcass discount that binds on more cohorts as carcasses run +40 lb above year-ago.

The Choice/Select spread is the leading indicator for grid-margin transmission, and at $17.24/cwt — holding the high-teens regime — the grid quality premium is dramatically expanded versus the 19-week compressed regime that bottomed near $3.60 in May. At a $17.24 spread, the feedyard’s grid Choice-and-CAB premium runs roughly $145-$165/head on a top-quartile cohort, well above the $28-$38/head captured at the late-April compression.

12-Month Choice/Select Trend

The mid-month-Friday Choice/Select trend below tracks the spread from the 2025 grilling peak through the compression regime that dominated since November 2025 and the regime break now entrenched. The May 22 row is the compressed trough; the June 17 close is the current reference and confirms the high-teens regime.

Interpretation: the spread has gone from a 19-week compression that bottomed at $3.60 on May 22 to the high teens by mid-June, peaking near $19.58 on June 11 and consolidating at $17.24 on June 17 — a sustained re-steepening that confirms the seasonal grilling-quality bid has returned and is holding. If it holds the mid-teens through July, the projected per-head grid premium points toward the $130-$165/head range on top-quartile cohorts, a level last seen in the mid-2025 peak-grilling window.

Worked Numerical Example — Grid Premium to Calf Bid

Take a standard fed steer: 900-lb hot carcass, 65% Choice-and-better, 30% CAB-eligible, 5% Prime, 5% YG 4-5 heavy-discount (up from ~0% a year ago on the +40-lb weight overhang). At this week’s $17.24 spread, the grid Choice-and-CAB premium computes to roughly ($10.30 x 270 lb CAB-eligible) + ($26 x 45 lb Prime) – ($16 x 45 lb YG4/5) = $2,781 + $1,170 – $720 = $3,231, or about $355/head of gross grid premium on the top-quartile cohort — roughly $1.59/cwt of CAB premium captured at this spread. That is in line with last week’s $365/head at the $17.58 spread and well above the roughly $108/head at the late-April $3.60 spread. Passed back through the 70% packer-to-feedlot pass-through and the 5-9 month lag, the standard $0.65-$0.85/cwt-per-dollar coefficient puts this at roughly +$11 to +$14/cwt of forward support on verified-program 600-lb steer bids, or +$66 to +$85/head — among the largest grid-driven tailwinds of this cycle, with the standing caveat that commodity calves capture only about 30% of it.

SIDEBAR — CHOICE-SELECT SPREAD -> MONTANA CALF BID (Section 18 reprise)
This week: $17.24/cwt (vs $17.58 prior week; high-teens regime entrenched, 4-wk avg ~$15.10)
Per $1/cwt move: $0.65-$0.85/cwt on 600-lb calf . $4-$5/head verified-program
Direction this week: BULLISH (entrenched high-teens regime; consolidating)
Lag: 5-9 months

Plain language: the grid pays packers more for Prime, CAB, and Choice carcasses and docks them for Select, heavy (YG 5), and no-roll cattle. The 70% pass-through means about seventy cents of every grid dollar the packer captures eventually reaches the feedyard, and from there a known coefficient ($0.65-$0.85/cwt per dollar of spread) reaches the calf — on a 5-9 month lag, because the calf you sell this fall is the carcass that grades next winter. At a $17.24 spread, that chain is worth roughly $40-$85/head on a verified-Choice Montana calf; the commodity calf captures only about 30% of it, which is the whole case for verifying quality and enrolling calves in a program.

19  Rancher Share of Retail Beef and Price Transmission Index (PTI)

The most recent confirmed USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) Meat Price Spreads release (updated May 12, 2026, carrying the series through April 2026) put the all-fresh rancher share of the retail beef dollar at approximately 42.7% in April 2026 — farm value near $3.90/lb against an all-fresh retail value near $9.13/lb on the standardized steer-to-retail yield basis. April farm-level cattle prices rose 4.8% from March and were 17.7% higher year-over-year; retail beef and veal rose 3.1% from March and 14.8% year-over-year. The next monthly ERS release, carrying May data, posts in mid-June; it had not yet been ingested into the Honest Cattle rancher-share pipeline for this run, so the April actual stands as the most recent confirmed figure.

Rancher share = farm value / retail value = 42.7% in April 2026. The 5-year (2021-2025) average all-fresh rancher share sits near 39.5%. The Price Transmission Index (PTI) = current rancher share – 5-year average = 42.7% – 39.5% = +3.2pp, a GREEN threshold call (above the 41% green line; the color scale is Red below 39%, Yellow 39-41%, Green above 41%).

Month-over-month, the April share expanded roughly +0.7pp from March. Year-over-year, the share is up roughly +1.0pp, because farm cattle prices (+17.7% YoY) outran retail beef (+14.8% YoY) — the cattle-cycle farm-value rally is transmitting through to the rancher faster than the stickier retail price. This week’s cash-fed rally and the firm Choice cutout reinforce the farm-value side and point to a steady-to-higher rancher share when the May figure posts.

SIDEBAR — PTI -> MONTANA CALF BID
Rancher share this month: 42.7% (5-yr avg 39.5%) — April 2026 ERS release (updated May 12); May release pending
PTI: +3.2pp
Direction: BULLISH (GREEN, >41%) — supports the rebuild-and-retention thesis
Per 1pp negative PTI: -$0.50 to -$1.00/cwt . -$3 to -$6/head on 600-lb calf
At +3.2pp positive PTI: +$1.60 to +$3.20/cwt . +$10 to +$19/head on 600-lb calf
Lag: 4-8 weeks

In plain language: the rancher share is the share of the retail beef dollar that makes it back to the farm gate, and the PTI is simply that share minus its 5-year average. A positive (GREEN) PTI means the rancher is capturing more of the retail dollar than usual — a bullish, persistent tailwind. At +3.2pp the arithmetic (about $0.50-$1.00/cwt per point) is worth roughly +$1.60 to +$3.20/cwt, or +$10 to +$19/head, on a 600-lb Montana calf over the next 4-8 weeks. Cross-reference the live tile at honestcattle.net/montana-cattle-markets-2/ for the next-day rancher share, PTI, and threshold color.

20  Sentiment Score

Honest Cattle weekly sentiment rises to 7.5/10 from last week’s 7.0. The increase reconciles to the Net Calf-Bid Signal Table below and reflects the bullish resolution of the event that has gated this forecast for a month: the June 18 Cattle on Feed report put May placements at -10% YoY, well below the trade’s ~-5.5% guess, confirming a tighter Q4 fed-cattle pipeline. That landed alongside a hard board rally (August feeders +$9.18, live +$5.45), a cash-fed jump to $258-$260, an entrenched Choice/Select regime at $17.24, and a screwworm footprint now reaching New Mexico. Section 19’s +3.2pp GREEN PTI is a required input and remains one of the unambiguously bullish signals, contributing roughly +0.4 of the score.

The model-implied sentiment from the Net Signal Table is approximately 7.3; Dirk’s tactile read runs above the model at 7.5 to weight two things the one-week model underweights — the placement number is a structural confirmation that the cattle simply are not there to flood the Q4 window, and the screwworm spread into a second state is a watershed a 40-year rancher reads as a multi-quarter floor under feeder prices. The cross-currents are real but secondary this week: the packer margin stays negative near -$22/cwt, carcass weights run +40 lb above year-ago, the record surge in imported lean beef (Section 17) is a mild offset on the cull-cow and grinding side, and — per Section 4 — a crowded managed-money long leaves the board exposed to a profit-taking correction. None of those touch the fed-Choice steer that drives the feeder-calf bid, and the near-term and forward nets are both clearly positive.

NET CALF-BID SIGNAL — $/cwt and $/head on 600-lb Montana calf
Choice-Select spread:    +$3.00/cwt   +$18/head   (5-9 mo lag; REGIME ENTRENCHED, $17.24)
Slaughter + placements:  +$2.00/cwt   +$12/head   (4 wk - 9 mo lag; placements -10% YoY, BULLISH surprise)
Feeder/corn + PGM:       +$0.75/cwt   +$4/head    (1-4 wk lag; ratio 87.8 feeder-led, PGM -$22)
Stock vs bred share:     +$0.75/cwt   +$5/head    (current cull-cow firm; forward ample)
PTI:                     +$2.40/cwt   +$14/head   (4-8 wk lag; +3.2pp GREEN)
------------------------------------------------------------------
NET (near-term, <=4 wk):   +$3.50/cwt   +$21/head
NET (mid-term, 4-12 wk):   +$3.00/cwt   +$18/head
NET (forward, 5-9 mo):     +$2.00/cwt   +$12/head  (placement overhang RESOLVED bullish; spread + screwworm additive)
Plus: screwworm supply-tightening tail (not in 5-signifier total): +$3 to +$10/head forward, wide band
Watch (Section 4): crowded managed-money long = downside risk on a board correction, not in the net

Reading the Net Signal Table in plain language: it adds up the five standardized signifiers — the Choice/Select spread, the slaughter-and-placement balance, the feeder/corn ratio with packer gross margin (PGM), the stock-cow-versus-bred-cow share, and the Price Transmission Index (PTI) — into a single net dollar pressure on a 600-lb Montana calf at three time horizons. Near-term (next four weeks) the net reads strongly bullish at about +$3.50/cwt (+$21/head). Mid-term holds at about +$3.00/cwt. The forward 5-9 month read has flipped to clearly positive at about +$2.00/cwt because the placement overhang that had held it negative for weeks is now resolved — the May placement number confirms a tighter Q4 pipeline, and the entrenched spread and widening screwworm story are additive. The one thing the table does not net in is the paper-market risk from Section 4: a crowded long can correct, and that is the most likely source of near-term downside.

Sentiment reconciliation: the published 7.5 sits about +0.2 above the model-implied 7.3 — that gap is the Dirk-tactile premium for the structural placement confirmation and the screwworm spread into a second state. All three horizons of the net are now positive, the forward read has flipped from negative to clearly positive, and that combination justifies stepping the score up a half point and adjusting Q4 up while holding Q2 and Q3, whose bands already contain the realized board and cash strength.

21  Risks and Watch Items for the Week Ahead

• Cash follow-through after the bullish Cattle on Feed report. Cash jumped to $258-$260 ahead of and into the friendly placement number; the test is whether the next trade holds or extends. A stall would cap the feeder rally; continuation would confirm the new, higher cash range.
• Choice/Select spread durability. At $17.24 the spread is entrenched in the high teens; watch whether Choice holds the mid-$390s and the spread sustains the mid-teens through July, which would lock the verified-quality premium into the fall grading window.
• Screwworm spread and movement restrictions (highest-impact wild card). The outbreak reached New Mexico and the Texas Hill Country. Any broad intrastate/interstate movement restriction would be sharply bullish for clean-source feeder supply but could trigger demand-side volatility. Watch APHIS and state animal-health orders daily.
• Board correction / long-liquidation risk after a three-week rally. August feeders have run from the low $350s to $366.60 on a crowded managed-money long (Section 4); a market that has rallied this hard into a friendly report can take profits, and feeder bids would follow the board down within the sale week.
• Corn weather rally. July corn at $4.17-1/2 is pricing a benign growing season; any Corn Belt heat-and-dry threat that lifts the cost of gain would pull feeder support back out within days.
• July 1 mid-year Cattle inventory and Montana turn-out moisture. The upcoming USDA Cattle inventory will update herd size and heifer-retention intentions; meanwhile a continued dry Montana turn-out accelerates and bunches summer calf marketings, pressuring local basis even with a firm board.

Translation to Montana calf bids. With the placement gate now cleared bullishly, the asymmetry has narrowed but not vanished: a board correction or a cash stall could pull the near-term Montana bid $10-$20/head, while continued screwworm spread or a friendly July inventory could add as much on the upside. Producers should price the rally where they can and keep source-and-quality verification current to capture the clean-source and Choice premiums.

22  Sources

• USDA NASS Cattle on Feed, released June 18, 2026 (June 1 inventory 11.682M head, +2% YoY; May placements 1.704M head, -10% YoY vs ~-5.5% expected; May marketings 1.551M head, -12% YoY, 2nd-lowest May since 1996; placement weight breakdown) via USDA NASS / DTN / Pro Farmer / Drovers / Meatingplace.
• CME/Barchart via Brownfield Ag News — Closing Grain and Livestock Futures, June 18, 2026 (Aug feeder GFQ26 $366.60; Aug live LEQ26 $246.62; July corn ZCN26 $4.17-1/2). Markets closed June 19 for the Juneteenth holiday.
• CFTC Commitments of Traders (disaggregated — feeder cattle, live cattle, corn) and CME daily volume / open-interest reports, most recent release — Section 4 Futures & Options positioning (net-long and OI figures to be confirmed against the current COT print).
• USDA AMS National Daily Boxed Beef Cutout (LM_XB403), June 17, 2026 most recent confirmed daily (Choice $394.50, Select $377.26, spread $17.24; five-day averages Choice $394.61 / Select $374.99; daily series June 9-17 via USDA AMS / IndexBox; peak spread ~$19.58 June 11).
• USDA AMS / National Beef Wire — cash fed cattle and weekly FI slaughter, week ending June 20, 2026 (cash $258-$260 live with Friday late sales $260 / $405-$410 dressed; FI cattle slaughter ~526,000 head; Juneteenth holiday June 19).
• USDA AMS 5-Area Weekly Direct Slaughter (AMS_2477) and weekly carcass-weight series, June 2026 (steer/heifer ~948 lb, +40 lb YoY).
• USDA AMS Montana Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (AMS_1778), Billings complex, week of May 31-June 6, 2026 (2,293 head; feeder cattle 543 head / 23.7%; feeder split 39% steers / 44% heifers / 16% bulls; >600 lb 66%) and AMS_1778 weighted-average prices, week ending May 16, 2026.
• USDA AMS video/internet auction reports — Superior Livestock (AMS_2713, June 17 sale) and Northern Livestock Video (AMS_2772, May 19 sale), North Central region 550-599 / 600-649 lb steer weighted averages; Honest Cattle video-auction feed (montana-video-cattle-auction-trends).
• USDA AMS Texas Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (AMS_1955); Producers Livestock Auction, San Angelo, TX; Brazos Valley Livestock Commission, Bryan, TX (open-cow reference, Boner #2 $158-$170/cwt).
• USDA APHIS — New World screwworm confirmed-detections updates (first U.S. detection Zavala County June 3 and June 5; additional Texas cases including La Salle County and a goat in Gillespie County; Andrews County dog reclassified to Lea County, New Mexico as the first NM case; six-plus confirmed U.S. cases across TX and NM by mid-June 2026); CDC New World Screwworm situation summary / EOC activation; Texas Gov. Abbott statewide disaster proclamation.
• U.S. Drought Monitor — most recent confirmed Lower-48 coverage 56.16% (valid June 9, 2026); June 18 release (valid June 16) regional status updates (Midwest improvement; Southwest monsoon assessment).
• USDA ERS Meat Price Spreads (updated May 12, 2026, through April 2026) and ERS Food Price Outlook (April farm +4.8% MoM / +17.7% YoY; retail beef/veal +3.1% MoM / +14.8% YoY); next monthly release (May data) pending.
• Honest Cattle forecast accuracy scorecard — auction/forecast_accuracy.json (AMS_1778 realized backtest, n=4 paired weeks through mid-June 2026).
• U.S. beef trade Q1 2026 — USDA-FAS / Ohio State Extension: imports ~1.7B lb (+15.3% YoY); Brazil 394M lb (out-of-quota 26.4% tariff, quota filled early January); Australia 334M lb (+12%); Mexico beef 197M lb (+23%). Reuters / Beef Central / DTN — proposed beef tariff-rate-quota suspension (flagged mid-May 2026, unresolved).
• Honest Cattle internal references: montana-cattle-markets-2 (rancher share / PTI live tile); montana-video-cattle-auction-trends (video sales); ten-year-history-of-snowpack-in-park-county-montana; feedlot-pricing-grids.

Comparison to Prior Week (June 13 -> June 20)

This report has been reviewed against the prior week’s HC Weekly Market Forecast (Week Ending June 13, 2026). The following changes were identified. The dominant change is the June 18 Cattle on Feed report, which resolved the month-long placement gate bullishly with May placements down 10% — well below the trade’s ~-5.5% expectation. The board rallied hard, cash fed cattle jumped, the Choice/Select spread held its high-teens regime, and the screwworm outbreak spread into New Mexico. Sentiment rises to 7.5 from 7.0; Q4 is ADJUSTED UP; Q2 and Q3 HELD. Format change: beginning this week the quarterly forecast splits into 550–599 / 600–649 lb bands, Section 2 carries a Forecast Accuracy Scorecard, and two new sections are added — Futures & Options Activity (4) and Video Auction Results (8); sections renumbered accordingly (former 4–20 shift to 5–22).