An Excel-based scenario model for projecting monthly Montana 625-lb steer calf prices, driven by corn, fed cattle, hay/drought, trade policy, demand, and herd cycle inputs. Download links are at the bottom of this page.
Overview
This Excel-based tool provides monthly average price forecasts for 2026 Montana 625-lb steer calves, incorporating key market drivers from the Honest Cattle weekly analysis. A baseline scenario projects calf prices in the mid-$300s per hundredweight (cwt) (approximately $350–$365/cwt), reflecting industry outlooks for continued historically strong prices. Users can then adjust input assumptions (corn prices, fed cattle prices, hay costs/drought, trade policy, demand, cattle inventory cycle, etc.) to simulate different scenarios and immediately see the impact on forecasted calf prices. The spreadsheet is designed with clear labels, dedicated input cells, and dynamic graphs to enhance usability. A separate Notes sheet documents all assumptions, threshold definitions, and sources for transparency.
Key Market Factors and Thresholds
The model is driven by several fundamental factors identified in the Honest Cattle analysis, each with bullish or bearish threshold levels that influence calf prices. When a user input crosses a defined threshold, the model highlights the change and adjusts the price forecast accordingly. Below are the key categories and how they affect 2026 calf prices.
Corn Prices (Feed Cost)
Thresholds: Bullish if < $4.00/bushel; Bearish if > $5.00/bushel.
Rationale: Corn is a primary feed for finishing cattle, so its price inversely affects calf values. Cheaper corn (below $4) is bullish for calf prices because feedlots enjoy lower cost of gain and can afford to pay more for feeders. In late 2024, corn prices were projected to fall back near $4 after surging in prior years, relieving feed costs for cattle producers. Historically, corn price spikes above $5 have squeezed feedlot margins and pulled down calf and feeder cattle prices – for example, a jump of corn over $4 in 2007 led to a $20–$30/cwt drop in cattle prices within weeks. Accordingly, the tool will flag corn inputs above $5/bu as a bearish signal (e.g. highlighting the input cell in red and tagging it “High Feed Cost – Bearish”) and adjust the calf price forecast downward. Conversely, corn below $4 (highlighted green as “Low Feed Cost – Bullish”) would trigger an upward adjustment in calf prices, since feedlots can bid more aggressively for calves.
Fed Cattle Prices (Finished Cattle Market)
Thresholds: Bullish if > $210/cwt; Bearish if < $185/cwt.
Rationale: The price of fed cattle (slaughter-ready steers) sets the revenue benchmark for feedlots, directly impacting how much they can pay for calves. High finished cattle prices above $210/cwt (a level exceeding even the record highs of 2023) signal robust demand and profitability in the beef supply chain, which is bullish for calf prices. Analysts forecasted fed cattle in early 2026 to trade in the $220–$240 range, and one projection had quarterly fed prices in 2026 as high as $230–$250/cwt. If the user sets the fed cattle price input above the $210 threshold, the model raises calf price projections. A drop in fed prices below $185/cwt (roughly back to early-2024 levels) would be a bearish indicator, and the tool flags it in red (“Low Fed Market – Bearish”) and adjusts calf prices downward.
Hay Costs & Drought/Weather Conditions
Thresholds: Bearish if hay > $250/ton or if severe drought conditions present (e.g. poor pasture forage).
Rationale: Expensive hay and drought strain cow-calf operations. The U.S. average hay price peaked above $250/ton in April 2023 amid feed shortages. When hay costs soar or pasture withers from drought, ranchers often liquidate herd inventory, increasing the near-term supply of calves and cull cows and exerting downward pressure on prices. If the user inputs an alfalfa hay price of $300 or checks a “Drought = Yes” box, the calf price forecast is revised lower. Conversely, favorable weather and moderate hay costs (e.g. hay <$200/ton with adequate rainfall) are bullish – they enable producers to hold onto cattle or even expand herds, tightening calf supply.
Import/Trade Policy
Thresholds: Bearish if Brazilian beef tariffs lifted or Mexican cattle import ban removed (i.e. policies that increase cattle/beef imports).
Rationale: Trade policies significantly alter cattle supply dynamics. In late 2025 the U.S. government removed a 40% tariff on Brazilian beef imports in an effort to curb domestic food inflation. Reopening the Mexican border to feeder cattle imports would flood the market with additional calves. Such policy shifts are bearish for U.S. calf prices because they effectively increase available supply. A real-world example: rumors in Oct. 2025 about reopening imports from Mexico and Argentina triggered feeder cattle futures to plunge from $380 to $320 (–16%) within days. In the model, these factors are input as scenario toggles (e.g. “Import Restrictions: Normal vs. Eased”).
Demand Conditions (Domestic & Export Demand)
Considerations: Strength of consumer demand for beef (at home and abroad), risk of recession, competing meat prices, etc.
Indicators: The tool uses qualitative scenarios or an index (e.g. Strong, Average, Weak demand) to capture demand-side conditions.
Rationale: Even with tight supply, weak consumer demand can undermine cattle prices. Beef demand could falter if a recession erodes consumer incomes or if pork and chicken become much cheaper substitutes. One livestock economist noted, “The greatest potential weak link is beef demand… some weakening of the economy or relatively low pork and chicken prices could put pressure on cattle markets.” Export demand is also critical – strong exports buoy domestic prices. A strong domestic economy and robust export demand scenario is treated as bullish; a Weak Demand (Recession) scenario scales back the price projections.
Inventory Cycle Dynamics (Herd Liquidation or Rebuilding)
Scenarios: Liquidation phase (shrinking herd) vs. Rebuilding phase (expanding herd).
Rationale: The cattle inventory cycle plays a fundamental role in calf supply. After several years of contraction, the U.S. cattle herd entering 2026 is historically small. Producers either continue liquidating or begin retaining heifers to rebuild herds:
- In a liquidation scenario, more cows and heifers go to market or slaughter now, which is short-term bearish for calf prices (more supply on the market).
- In a rebuilding scenario, producers hold back heifers and cows to breed, which reduces the number of calves sold in the near term – a bullish factor for calf prices.
Model Implementation: The tool uses a dropdown for herd status (e.g. “Continuing Liquidation”, “Stable”, “Early Rebuilding”). The baseline assumption is that herd rebuilding starts slowly in 2026, but calf supplies remain tight (consistent with industry expectations that calf supplies won’t increase significantly until 2–3 years out). “Rebuilding” could add a few dollars per cwt to each month’s price relative to baseline, while “Liquidation” could subtract some amount.
Upside/Downside Risk Factors
Factors: Policy shocks, feed/fuel cost swings, health crises, or geopolitical events not captured above.
Rationale: Beyond the core fundamentals, unexpected events can create additional upside or downside for calf prices. One risk is potential packing capacity loss – with cattle supplies so low, some meat plants may close, which could hurt demand for cattle in the short run. A disease outbreak like foot-and-mouth (FMD) could temporarily crater cattle prices by shutting export markets. The tool provides flexibility for the user to apply a custom adjustment or choose preset “shock” scenarios via an “Other Factors Adjustment” input (a percentage or $/cwt override).
Baseline Forecast and Price Calculation
The baseline 2026 calf price forecast built into the tool serves as a starting point before adjustments. The baseline assumes a continuation of favorable fundamentals from late 2025: tight cattle supplies, solid demand, normal weather, and status quo trade policy. Under these conditions, industry projections indicate 2026 calf prices will likely average in the mid-$300s/cwt. We set the baseline annual range at $350–$365/cwt for 625-lb Montana steers.
Monthly Forecast Pattern: The baseline includes a seasonal trend typical for calf markets. Prices are projected to strengthen into the spring and summer of 2026 and ease slightly in the fall – starting around the low $350s in January, rising toward the mid-$360s by July–August, and dipping modestly in October–November as the fall calf-run increases supply, ending the year near $355.
Baseline Assumptions: The baseline scenario corresponds to roughly the midpoint or “neutral” setting of each input factor:
- Corn around $4.50–$4.75/bu (moderate feed cost).
- Fed cattle around $200–$210/cwt (continuing strong finished cattle prices).
- Hay around $200–$225/ton, with normal precipitation (no severe drought).
- No major changes in import policy.
- Steady domestic demand (no recession) and stable exports (similar to 2025 levels).
- Herd situation: gradually entering rebuilding but calf crop still limited in 2026.
Forecast Calculation: The model computes adjusted prices by starting from this baseline and then applying additive or percentage adjustments for each factor based on the user’s inputs. Conceptually:
Adjusted Price = Baseline Price + Δ(Corn) + Δ(Fed Cattle) + Δ(Hay/Drought) + Δ(Import Policy) + Δ(Demand) + Δ(Inventory Cycle) + Δ(Other Risks).
For example, if corn is entered $1.00 higher than baseline, the model might subtract $15 from the calf price; if fed cattle is $10 above baseline, calf price might be bumped up by +$10–$12. A “Severe Drought” input triggers a downward adjustment, and a recession scenario could impose a –5% across-the-board reduction. When all inputs are at their baseline (neutral) values, adjustments sum to zero and the forecast matches the baseline $350–$365/cwt range.
Excel Model Layout & Features
Spreadsheet Structure: The workbook contains at least two sheets – “2026 Calf Price Forecast” (the main interactive model) and “Notes & Assumptions” (documentation). An additional “Historical Data” sheet can hold placeholders for future data integration.
Main Forecast Sheet (“2026 Calf Price Forecast”)
Inputs Section: A tabular layout lists each input factor, its unit, the baseline value, and an editable user input, along with an automatic indicator:
| Factor | Unit | Baseline | Your Input | Indicator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Price (Feed cost) | $/bushel | 4.50 | [Editable Cell] | [Auto: Bullish/Bearish] |
| Fed Cattle Price | $/cwt (live) | 210 | [Editable Cell] | [Auto: Bullish/Bearish] |
| Hay Price | $/ton (alfalfa) | 220 | [Editable Cell] | [Auto: OK/High] |
| Drought Condition | Y/N | Normal | [Select: Yes/No] | [Auto: Warning if Yes] |
| Import Policy Scenario | — | Status Quo | [Select scenario] | [Auto: +Supply or —] |
| Demand Scenario | — | Avg/Strong | [Select scenario] | [Auto: +Demand or —] |
| Herd Cycle Stage | — | Early Rebuild | [Select scenario] | [Auto: Tight/Ample] |
| Other Shock Adjustment | % or $/cwt | 0 (none) | [Editable Cell] | [Auto: Applied?] |
Input cells are light-colored (editable); the baseline column is greyed out. Indicator cells use simple Excel logic (IF formulas) and conditional formatting (red/green) to reinforce the bullish/bearish color scheme.
Outputs Section (Forecast Table): A table with columns for Month, Baseline Price, and Forecast Price (Adjusted). For example:
| Month 2026 | Baseline Price | Adjusted Price |
|---|---|---|
| January | $352 | $352 (if no changes) |
| February | $355 | $354 (example) |
| … | … | … |
| December | $356 | $349 (example) |
Helper cells compute each factor’s $ adjustment (e.g. = (InputCorn - BaselineCorn) * (-15)), summed into a “Total Adjustment” that is added to the baseline price for each month.
Conditional Highlights: Adjusted Price cells below $350 are shaded light red; cells above $365 are shaded light green. A summary line reads “Price Impact: ±$XX (±YY%) vs. baseline.”
Graphical Output: A line chart plots months on the X-axis and price ($/cwt) on the Y-axis, with two lines: the Baseline forecast and the Adjusted forecast. Chart title: “2026 Monthly Calf Price Forecast – Baseline vs. Your Scenario.”
Formatting & Labels: Sections have bold headers. Input cells are highlighted (light fill color); formula cells are locked in the final version. Cell comments reinforce guidance. A title at the top of the sheet reads: “2026 Montana Calf Price Forecast Simulator – Adjust the inputs below to see how calf prices might respond.”
Notes & Assumptions Sheet
The second sheet provides documentation behind the model. Key contents include:
- Introduction/Usage Notes: How to use the tool, plus a warning that it is for scenario analysis, not exact prediction.
- Baseline Assumptions: Each factor’s baseline value and reasoning (Corn $4.50/bu per USDA projections; Fed cattle ~$210/cwt near late-2025 levels; Hay ~$220/ton with normal precipitation; Trade status quo; No recession/stable exports; Herd at cyclical low with slight retention).
- Thresholds and Adjustments: How each factor’s adjustment is calculated. For instance: “Corn Adjustment: For every $1/bu that the corn price is above (below) the baseline of $4.50, the calf price is reduced (increased) by $15/cwt.”
- Sources: References to reports, articles, and USDA data that underpin the assumptions.
- Future Data Integration: Guidance on how the model can be expanded with historical data to calibrate adjustment parameters.
Conclusion
The Excel forecasting tool provides a user-friendly dashboard for ranchers to project 2026 calf prices and perform what-if analysis. By adjusting corn, fed cattle, hay/drought, trade policy, demand, and herd dynamics, users can see how crossing key bullish or bearish thresholds impacts calf price expectations. With a baseline forecast of $350–$365/cwt, the tool can highlight risk and opportunity – for example, showing that if corn stays cheap and no new imports arrive, calf prices could exceed $370, or if a drought hits and trade opens up, they might fall closer to $320.
Sources
The assumptions and thresholds draw from the Farms.com Beef Outlook (Nov 2025), industry experts like Dr. Koontz on supply-driven high prices and demand risks, USDA reports on feed costs and herd inventory, and recent policy changes affecting imports. All are documented in the Notes sheet.