Honest Cattle

Weekly Market Forecast

Report date: Monday, May 4, 2026
 Week ending: Saturday, May 2, 2026
 Prior report: April 27, 2026
 Data window: Auction and market data through Saturday, May 2, 2026
 Basins covered: Park County, Montana; San Jacinto County, Texas

1. Executive Summary

The cattle complex set fresh records this week as cash fed cattle in Texas and Kansas vaulted roughly $9/cwt higher to a bulk $255/cwt live trade — with top sales at $256 — and Nebraska dressed bids jumped roughly $14–$17/cwt to a bulk $400/cwt print. August feeder cattle (GFQ26) settled Friday May 1 at $372.17/cwt (down $1.35 daily) and June live cattle (LEM26) settled $253.00/cwt (down $1.00 daily), with the day’s modest pullback failing to dent a powerful weekly cash-led rally. Honest Cattle weekly sentiment moves UP to 7.5/10 from last week’s 7.0, reflecting the explosive cash trade and another supply-confirming Federally Inspected (FI) slaughter print of roughly 534,000 head (down ~9.5% year-over-year), partially offset by a Choice–Select cutout spread that compressed further to about $1.35/cwt and a Price Transmission Index (PTI) reading we estimate at roughly −3.0 percentage points (RED zone).

Choice cutout firmed to $389.52/cwt in the April 30 afternoon report (Mon–Thu average $389.01, up $4.65/cwt week-over-week), but the Choice–Select spread — last week $2.20, two weeks ago $4.46 — compressed to $1.35 as Select-grade demand pulled close to Choice-grade demand. Packer gross margin proxy contracted to roughly $133/cwt this week (down ~$8 from $141.16) as cash bids ran ahead of cutout. The U.S. Drought Monitor for April 28 showed a slight national improvement to 51.54% U.S. and 61.68% Lower 48 in drought (from 52.46%/62.78%), with Southeast and High Plains worsening offset by improvement across the eastern Plains and Lower Mississippi. APHIS reports no new northern Mexican screwworm detections beyond the active Marin/Montemorelos area, Nuevo León cluster (62–120 miles from the Texas border), and the U.S.–Mexico cattle import border remains closed.

Bands for Q2 and Q3 2026 are ADJUSTED UP this week to reflect the cash reset: Q2 to $470–$500/cwt steer (mid $485) and Q3 to $480–$520 (mid $500). Q4 holds at $440–$485 (mid $460) pending corn-harvest visibility. A reading of 7.5/10 means “hold or buy weakness; the supply story is winning, but watch the spread compression and PTI as 4–8 week leading-bearish signals on verified-program calf bids.”

2. 2026 Montana Quarterly Forecast

Honest Cattle’s 2026 Montana feeder cattle price bands are ADJUSTED UP this week for Q2 and Q3 and HELD for Q4. The week’s $9/cwt jump in Texas/Kansas live cash to a bulk $255/cwt print and the $14–$17/cwt jump in Nebraska dressed to a bulk $400/cwt print pull the entire 2026 Montana cash anchor higher; the Choice–Select spread compression to about $1.35/cwt and the PTI estimate near −3.0pp argue against the very top of the Q3 range on grid-pass-through grounds, but the cash reset dominates. The bands below apply to 550–650 lb Montana-origin steers delivered FOB auction, quality-graded average to above-average. Heifer bands run $20–$22/cwt below the steer bands across all three quarters, narrowing slightly from last week’s $18–$25/cwt discount as grass-lease heifer demand continues to firm. All numbers are $/cwt.

Q2 2026 (April–June): ADJUSTED UP from $460–$495/cwt steer (mid $478) to $470–$500/cwt steer (mid $485); heifer band $440–$475 (mid $458) to $450–$480 (mid $465). The week’s $9/cwt jump in Texas/Kansas live cash to a bulk $255 print and the $14–$17/cwt jump in Nebraska dressed to a bulk $400 print pull the entire 2026 cash anchor higher. With Federally Inspected (FI) cattle slaughter for the week ending May 2 estimated at 534,000 head — still running roughly 9.5% below the same week a year ago — the supply story that supports the upper half of Q2 is reconfirmed.

Q3 2026 (July–September): ADJUSTED UP from $470–$510/cwt steer (mid $490) to $480–$520/cwt steer (mid $500); heifer band $450–$490 (mid $470) to $460–$500 (mid $480). March feedlot placements at 1.71 million head — 7% below March 2025 and the second-lowest March print since the series began in 1996 — flow into the Q3 fed-cattle window. The Choice–Select cutout spread compression to roughly $1.35/cwt as of April 30 argues against the very top of the band on grid-pass-through grounds, but the cash-trade jump dominates.

Q4 2026 (October–December): HELD at $440–$485/cwt steer (mid $460); heifer band held at $420–$465 (mid $442). Q4 still carries the widest uncertainty range of the year because it depends on corn harvest size, the autumn run from the Northern Plains, and any change in the U.S.–Mexico screwworm border posture. The Marin/Montemorelos area, Nuevo León detection 62–120 miles from the Texas border continues to bias the central estimate toward the upper half of Q4 on probability-of-extended-border-closure grounds.

Heifer convergence note (Q2–Q4): The $20–$22/cwt heifer-to-steer discount embedded in this week’s bands is narrower than last week’s $18–$25 range. Sustained grass-lease demand for feeder heifers and the very tight cull-cow supply continue to compress the discount. If the bred-heifer share at Montana auctions stays above 30% of replacement-cattle composition through May, expect Q3 heifer mid to converge another $3–$5/cwt on the steer mid by July.

Reputation premium framing: Honest Cattle continues to flag the historical $0.06–$0.12/lb verified-Angus reputation premium as understated at current price levels. With $4+ calves now the operating reality, the realistic premium range is $0.10–$0.18/lb (2.5–3.5% of value), or roughly $30–$54/head on a 600-lb calf. The Choice–Select spread compression to $1.35/cwt this week temporarily compresses the upper end of that range, but the multi-year cycle is what makes the documentation worth it.

3. CME Futures and Corn — Friday May 1, 2026 Settlements

Corn (ZC, Chicago Board of Trade) — lead position

July 2026 corn (ZCN26) settled $4.80¼/bu on Friday May 1, up 5½ cents on the day. May 2026 corn (ZCK26) reached First Notice Day on April 30 and is no longer a meaningful price reference for new feedlot ration costing; July is the new lead month. Week-over-week, July corn firmed roughly 7–10 cents from the prior Friday’s reference. The May–July spread carry remains tight, consistent with a near-term supply that is adequate but not abundant; the trade will reprice quickly on any planting-pace surprise into the mid-May USDA Crop Progress reports.

Feeder Cattle (GF, Chicago Mercantile Exchange)

August 2026 (GFQ26) settled $372.17/cwt on Friday May 1, down $1.35 on the day. With May 2026 (GFK26) off the board (First Notice Day was April 30), August is the new front-month and the relevant Montana basis anchor for May–June auction trade. The CME Feeder Cattle Index continues to trade above August futures, consistent with cash-led strength rather than physical-market weakness. Friday’s modest pullback came on a day when live cattle also slipped slightly; both markets remain near record-high territory after a powerful cash-driven week.

Live Cattle (LE, Chicago Mercantile Exchange)

June 2026 (LEM26) settled $253.00/cwt on Friday May 1, down $1.00 on the day. That is up roughly $7.78/cwt from last Friday’s $245.22 settlement — a 3.2% weekly gain that closely tracks the cash trade jump. August live cattle (LEQ26) traded similarly firm. The June–August inversion narrowed as June approaches expiry and August absorbs the cash signal.

Feeder/Corn Ratio

Feeder/corn ratio: $372.17 ÷ $4.80 = 77.5. Down from last week’s 79.3 because the August feeder reference contract (replacing May) trades at a small premium while corn firmed modestly. The ratio remains well above the 10-year average range of approximately 55–65 — feeders remain historically expensive relative to corn input cost, which structurally supports feedlot bidding for placement cattle even with a fed-cattle break-even that is back in negative territory.

Translation to Montana calf bids

The lead-month feeder contract reset (May going off the board, August picking up at $372.17) does not change the fundamental Montana basis arithmetic week-over-week. With Montana auction trade running 5–10 higher last week against a softer May futures, the implied Montana cash basis on light-weight feeders is roughly +$100–$110/cwt over August futures — putting 550–650 lb Montana steers near $475–$485/cwt cash equivalent this week, comfortably inside the newly-adjusted Q2 band. The day’s $1.35 feeder pullback represents about $8/head of pressure on a 600-lb calf, with same-week lag because Montana auctions reprice futures within hours.

SIDEBAR — FEEDER/CORN RATIO → MONTANA CALF BID

This week: 77.5 (10-yr avg ~55–65; >65 = feeders historically expensive vs corn)

Δ from prior week: −1.8 points

Per 1.0-point move: ±$0.20–$0.35/cwt · ±$1.20–$2.10/head on 600-lb calf

Lag: 1–2 weeks

Direction this week: mildly bearish on calf bid (−$0.36 to −$0.63/cwt · −$2 to −$4/head)

4. Cash Fed Cattle and Basis Context

Live cash fed cattle traded $250–$256/cwt across most of Texas and Kansas through the week, with the bulk at $255 — roughly $9/cwt higher than last week’s $246–$247 print. The northern dressed market followed even more aggressively: Nebraska dressed sales ran $398–$405/cwt with the bulk at $400, $14–$17/cwt higher than last week’s $385 reference depending on definition (per-week negotiated change vs settle-to-settle comparison). The headline is that the spot fed-cattle market is making fresh all-time highs as packers scramble for inventory against a structurally tight short-term supply.

At $255 live and June LEM26 at $253.00, the fed cattle–to–June futures basis is +$2.00/cwt — a $1.22/cwt widening from last week’s +$0.78 basis. Cash is unambiguously leading futures this week, and the basis widening signals packers are willing to pay over board for current inventory. The simultaneous $14–$17/cwt jump in Nebraska dressed trade is consistent with packer scramble for slaughter-ready cattle at a time when the FI weekly slaughter pace is running roughly 9.5% below year-ago.

Translation to Montana calf bids: A $9/cwt firmer southern live trade typically supports feedlot placement bids by roughly $5–$8/cwt with a one-to-two-week lag, hitting the heavier yearling end of the Montana run hardest. The simultaneous $14–$17/cwt firmer Nebraska dressed trade pulls in the same direction for Montana cattle headed to northern feedlots. Net for a 600 lb Montana calf this week: roughly +$25–$45/head of supportive pressure, with the bulk realized in the next two weeks.

5. Feedlot Profitability and Break-Even

Using the University of Nebraska–Iowa State (UNL–ISU) feedlot break-even formula with this week’s inputs and a 750 lb placement weight → 1,250 lb finished steer:

Feeder placement price (Aug GFQ26 used as proxy per HC convention with May off the board): $372.17/cwt × 7.50 cwt = $2,791.28/head. Where the AMS Montana Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (AMS_1778) for the week ending May 2 reports actual Montana 700–800 lb steer weighted averages, that figure should override the futures proxy.

Feed (corn at $4.80¼/bu × 64.24 bu): $308.55/head.

Yardage: $99/head.

Processing: $50/head.

Interest (~7.25% annual × $2,791.28 × 150/365 days): $83.18/head.

Total cost-in: $3,332.01/head. Divided by 12.50 cwt finished live weight = $266.56/cwt break-even.

At June LEM26 closeout of $253.00/cwt: projected feedlot margin is $253.00 − $266.56 = −$13.56/cwt, or approximately −$169.50/head on a 1,250 lb finished steer. That is roughly $5/head wider negative than last week’s −$13.08/cwt and −$163.50/head, because the Aug feeder reset higher (+$11.27/cwt vs the prior May reference) and corn firmed modestly more than the live cattle rally on a per-cwt break-even basis.

Data note: AMS_1778 for the week ending May 2 was not yet published at production time (Tuesday May 5 is the standard release date for the prior-Saturday week). The Aug feeder futures proxy is used here for arithmetic continuity; substitute the actual Montana 700–800 lb steer weighted-average price from AMS_1778 when the report posts and recompute. Last published AMS_1778 (week ending April 25) reported Montana feeder cattle prices 5.00–10.00 higher week-over-week with feeders over 600 lbs at 58% of the feeder category.

Structural insight: the explosive cash-fed-cattle rally has not yet pulled feedlot break-evens into positive territory because the placement-cost reset higher (May→Aug feeder lead) more than offset the $7.78/cwt June live cattle rally on the closeout side. Feedlots placing this week are still betting on a deferred-board rally or a sustained cutout firm-up for closeout positivity. Montana producers selling weaned calves between now and May 31 should price against the Aug feeder futures and the firm Montana cash basis; the break-even math does not stop placements because alternatives are worse.

6. Montana Weekly Auction Data (AMS_1778 and Regional)

Most recent published data: week ending April 25, 2026 (AMS_1778)

AMS_1778 narrative for the most recently published week: feeder cattle comprised 43% of Montana receipts (52% Steers, 46% Heifers, 1% Bulls), with feeder cattle over 600 lbs at 58% of the feeder category. Feeder prices ran 5.00–10.00 higher week-over-week. Replacement cattle were 49% of receipts (composition: roughly 53% bred cows, 37% bred heifers, 10% stock cows). Slaughter cattle 8% of receipts (83% Cows, 17% Bulls).

Heifer share comparison: this week’s reported 46% heifer share of feeder receipts runs 1.6 percentage points BELOW the 96-week 2-year average from honestcattle.net’s Montana auction trends analysis (steers 49.3% / heifers 47.6% / bulls 2.8%). The weighted heifer share remains within normal trim range; combined with strong grass-lease bidder interest, the data continues to suggest aggressive sorting — open heifers to feedyard placement and bred heifers diverted to the replacement market.

Sale-by-sale detail through Saturday May 2, 2026

Billings Livestock Commission (AMS_1777): the Thursday April 30 sale carried roughly 7.3% replacement cattle (5% bred cows, 3% bred heifers) — a more typical late-April composition than the prior week’s bred-heavy mix at the AMS_1778 statewide level. Weigh-up cows and bulls sold on good-to-very-good demand for light offerings; demand for young feeding cows was very good, with buyers continuing to take cows up to middle age for turn-out and rebreeding. Detailed weighted averages should be cross-referenced against the BLS market topper page for representative top sales.

Public Auction Yards (AMS_1774, Wednesday April 29): composition consistent with prior weeks. Reporting described feeder steers and heifers steady to higher with continued active demand. The Friday May 1 PAYS Feeder Special was not in published AMS aggregation as of report preparation; sale toppers should be logged for the monthly Billings Trends update.

Miles City Livestock Commission (AMS_1773, Tuesday April 28): eastern Montana sale results were not individually verified in fresh published aggregation as of report preparation. The standing pattern — steady-to-higher on yearling feeders — has held through spring 2026.

Interpretation: Montana feeder prices firmed for a third consecutive week against a futures complex that closed slightly lower Friday but rallied substantially across the week. With June live cattle up $7.78/cwt on the week and August feeder up roughly $11/cwt vs the May reference, Montana auction bids should mark another step higher next week unless the Choice–Select spread compression accelerates. The case for Q2 closeouts on Montana-origin cattle printing in the upper half of the newly-adjusted $470–$500/cwt 550–650 lb steer band is strengthened.

7. Boxed Beef Cutout and Packer Economics

April 30, 2026 afternoon report

Choice cutout: $389.52/cwt, up $1.47 on the day. Select cutout: $388.17/cwt, up $1.92 on the day. Choice–Select spread: $1.35/cwt — compressed further from last Friday’s $2.20 and the prior week’s $4.46. Mon–Thu weekly average: Choice $389.01 (up $4.65/cwt week-over-week), Select $387.95 (up $3.77/cwt week-over-week), implied weekly average spread $1.06/cwt.

Context: The cutout firmed sharply through the week — both Choice and Select pushed roughly $5–$6/cwt higher Monday-through-Thursday — but the firm-up was led by Select rather than Choice. The Choice–Select spread is now well below the $5/cwt undifferentiated-demand threshold and approaches the inversion line. Below $5/cwt the grid premium structure for verified-Choice-and-better cattle compresses meaningfully; the $1.35 print this week is consistent with a market where retailers are pulling on broad beef demand rather than bidding selectively for quality.

Reporting through the week noted continued resistance at the highs from foodservice and middle-meat retail buyers, partially offset by firm end-meat and processing-item demand. End cuts firming faster than middle cuts is the typical signature of a Select-led rally. With Mother’s Day, Memorial Day, and the summer grilling season ahead, Choice has structural seasonal support, but the spread compression bears watching closely as a 4–6 week leading bearish signal for verified-program calf bids.

Packer gross margin

Packer gross margin proxy (Choice cutout minus fed cash, the standard rough convention): $389.52 − $255.00 = $134.52/cwt. That is down roughly $6.64/cwt from last week’s $141.16 — a real contraction in packer gross margin driven by a cash bid that ran $9/cwt higher against a cutout that firmed only $2.36/cwt on the same Friday-to-Friday comparison. PGM contraction at this magnitude typically slows aggressive forward cash bidding 2–3 weeks out and is a near-term headwind to feeder placement bids.

Translation to Montana calf bids

The compressed Choice–Select spread directly compresses the Choice premium portion of the packer grid. On a 900-lb carcass, a $1.35 Choice premium captures only $12.15/head of grid premium versus $19.80/head at last week’s $2.20 spread — a $7.65/head reduction in grid pass-through value for verified-quality cattle. With a 5–9 month flow-through lag, that compression filters into August–December feedlot bids for verified-Angus, source-and-age-verified Montana calves. The spread is also now below the $1.50 “escalation” threshold — verified-program calf bids should expect $5–$10/head of additional pressure on top of the $0.65–$0.85/cwt-per-dollar-of-spread coefficient.

SIDEBAR — CHOICE–SELECT SPREAD → MONTANA CALF BID

This week: $1.35/cwt (vs $2.20 prior week, ~$2.40 4-week avg)

Per $1/cwt move:  $0.65–$0.85/cwt on 600-lb calf · $4–$5/head verified-program

Direction this week: bearish for verified-quality calf bids

Below $1.50 threshold escalation: add $5–$10/head additional pressure on verified bids

Lag: 5–9 months

SIDEBAR — PACKER GROSS MARGIN → MONTANA CALF BID

This week: $134.52/cwt (cutout $389.52 − fed cash $255.00)

Δ from prior week: −$6.64/cwt

Per $1/cwt expansion: +$0.20–$0.40/cwt · +$1.20–$2.40/head on 600-lb calf

Direction this week: bearish (PGM compression of −$1.30 to −$2.65/cwt · −$8 to −$16/head pressure on placement bids)

Lag: 2–4 weeks

8. Cattle Slaughter and Packer Margins

Federally Inspected (FI) cattle slaughter for the week ending May 2, 2026 was estimated at 534,000 head (industry tracking), down from approximately 555,000 the prior week and roughly 590,000 the same week a year ago. Year-over-year, the 534,000-head pace is roughly 9.5% below year-ago and confirms the structural supply contraction first flagged by the April Cattle on Feed report.

Year-to-date slaughter through May 2 is now running solidly below the 2025 pace and well below the 2024 pace at the same calendar point. The Hales Cattle Letter for April 30 noted the Wednesday April 29 slaughter estimate at 110,000 head versus 106,000 head the prior Wednesday — a counter-pattern intra-week that nonetheless leaves the full-week pace comfortably below year-ago norms. Estimates for this week’s full-pace settled in the 520,000–530,000 head range, with the final 534,000 print coming in at the upper end of that range.

April 17 USDA Cattle on Feed report (April 1 inventory): 11.6 million head on feed in feedlots with 1,000+ head capacity, down 1% year-over-year. March placements at 1.71 million head, down 7% from March 2025 and the second-lowest March print since the data series began in 1996. March marketings at 1.63 million head, down 6% YoY and also second-lowest for March since 1996. The supply pipeline for fed cattle into Q2–Q3 is structurally tight.

Translation to Montana calf bids

At ~9.5% YoY decline in slaughter pace this week, the codified coefficient implies +$4.75–$9.50/cwt of fed-cattle cash support over the next 4–8 weeks, which passes through at 70% to placements (+$3.30–$6.65/cwt on 750-lb steers) and translates to +$1.85–$5.00/cwt or +$11–$30/head on a 600-lb Montana calf with the same 4–8 week lag. Layered on top, March placements at −7% YoY support fed-cattle pricing 5–7 months forward, implying another +$3.50–$10.50/cwt or +$21–$63/head of support on the Q3–Q4 calf bid.

SIDEBAR — SLAUGHTER + PLACEMENTS → MONTANA CALF BID

Slaughter this week:  534,000 head (Δ YoY: −9.5%)

Latest monthly placements: 1.71 million head (Δ YoY: −7.0%)

Per 1% slaughter decline: +$0.50–$1.00/cwt · +$3–$6/head (4–8 wk lag)

Per 1% placement decline: +$0.50–$1.50/cwt · +$3–$9/head (5–9 mo lag)

Combined direction this week: strongly bullish (+$5 to +$13/cwt · +$30 to +$78/head over 4 wk – 9 mo)

9. Texas Auction Data and Secondary Market

The Texas complex showed selectively firmer trade against modest receipts. San Jacinto County, the operational Honest Cattle Texas coverage area, does not have its own USDA-reporting auction; the nearest reporting auctions are:

Navasota Livestock Auction (Grimes County, approximately 80 miles from San Jacinto County): Saturday May 2 sale results were not available in published aggregation as of report preparation. Navasota’s standing spring 2026 pattern is steady receipts of 900–1,400 head on Saturday sales with stocker cow prices in the $140–$175/cwt range and bred cow prices in the $1,800–$2,600/head range. The week’s broader Texas tone — feeder cattle steady to firm on active demand — is consistent with this pattern continuing.

Brazos Valley Livestock Commission (Bryan, TX — secondary market, primary for open cows): mid-week sale tone continued to favor open cows and utility cull cows, supported by firm replacement-female demand statewide. Specific weighted averages were not in published aggregation as of report preparation; cull cow prices in central and east Texas remain firm at $110–$140/cwt for utility, $100–$118/cwt for high-yielding boners.

Producers Livestock Auction (San Angelo, Texas): the standing Thursday cattle sale (April 30) sold limited numbers of calves and feeder yearlings near steady with continued strong demand. Slaughter cows and bulls sold near steady. Replacement cows and pairs sold steady to slightly higher. The tone is consistent with a market that is bidding-supported but supply-constrained — sellers are holding cattle for grass.

Texas statewide context: Cash fed trade in Texas at $255/cwt was $9/cwt firmer than the prior week, in line with the national jump. The Texas Drought Monitor improvement noted in late April continues to support replacement female bids; East and Central Texas pasture conditions remain forage-constructive into mid-May.

Translation to San Jacinto County (Texas) producers: The firmer replacement-female market and supportive pasture outlook argue for holding pairs that are functional rather than turning them at the spring discount. Stocker cow values at $140–$175/cwt remain in the upper half of the historical range; sellers with utility-grade cows have $5–$12/cwt of room to negotiate against feedlot-driven cull demand.

10. Regional Weather Summary

For local weather, soil moisture, snowpack, and range condition, every Honest Cattle county page on honestcattle.net auto-updates daily. Each page pulls the National Weather Service zone forecast, the nearest SNOTEL (Snow Telemetry) readings with water-year context, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor category for that county, and USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) range and pasture condition when available. Readers should use the county page as the authoritative local source. The summary below covers regional themes.

Northern Plains and Montana

The May 4–10 pattern across Montana features a return to seasonally typical late-spring conditions after the April 25–26 freeze episode. Park County is forecast to see overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s with daytime highs in the 60s through mid-week, warming toward 70°F by the weekend, and shower activity returning Friday into Saturday. The mid-April Havre 30°F maximum / 80°F+ swing of April 21–24 is now in the rearview, but the deeper-soil cool memory persists on the colder allotments.

Implication for forage: Cool-season range grasses on the lower foothill allotments are now actively emerging behind the late-April frost setback. Mid-week dry stretches will allow saturated soils to drain and field operations to proceed. Snowpack across most basins below 7,500 feet remains below the 10-year average; the absence of meaningful late-spring storms means residual pack is no longer adding to the water-balance equation, and downstream irrigation reserves will be set largely by what is already in the bank.

Southern Plains and Texas

The May 4–10 pattern across central, southern, and southeastern Texas features continued shower activity early in the week, particularly across the eastern half of the state, with clearing and warming into the weekend. The April 28 U.S. Drought Monitor release recorded continued improvement across the eastern Plains and Lower Mississippi where rainfall has been sufficient. East and central Texas pasture conditions remain forage-positive through mid-May.

Translation to Montana and Texas calf bids: A normalizing late-spring Northern Plains pattern reduces the cost-of-gain pressure on retained calves and supports Montana auction prices for ready-to-go feeders that buyers can move to grass without weather risk. The Texas drought improvement continues to support southern replacement-female demand, indirectly supporting Montana bred cow prices because Northern Plains cows have been a substitute supply source for southern restocking. Net for Montana 600 lb feeder bids: $1–$3/cwt of supportive weather-driven pressure.

Action for readers: Check your county page on honestcattle.net for today’s SNOTEL update, soil moisture, Drought Monitor category, range condition, and the 7-day NWS forecast specific to your location.

11. Moisture, Snowpack, and Range Condition — See Your County Page

Honest Cattle maintains a county page for every Montana county and an increasing set of Texas counties, auto-updated daily with: SNOTEL readings for the stations closest to the county with current water-year reading and 10-year average comparison; soil moisture readings from available USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (USDA-NRCS) and state sources; U.S. Drought Monitor category (D0 through D4) with week-over-week change; National Weather Service (NWS) 7-day forecast for the nearest zone; range and pasture condition ratings from USDA-NASS where reported, with week-over-week change; and federal grazing allotment context for counties with significant Bureau of Land Management (BLM) or U.S. Forest Service (USFS) permitted acreage.

National drought snapshot (April 28, 2026 release): 51.54% of the United States and Puerto Rico, and 61.68% of the Lower 48 states, are in drought — a slight improvement from the April 21 release’s 52.46% / 62.78%. Drought worsened in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and High Plains. Drought improved across the eastern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Basin (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi). The West, Midwest, and Northeast saw a mix of worsening and improving.

Why this matters for market decisions this week: Montana snowpack remains below the 10-year average across most basins below 7,500 feet, and that deficit is already priced into the firmer replacement-female demand at Billings and other Montana auctions — buyers are paying up for cattle that will move to grass regardless of local moisture. The water-year-2026 strong start (October–December well above median across most basins, January–April mixed) has been partially undone by below-normal late-winter precipitation; readers with federal grazing permits on allotments should expect range-condition driven AUM (Animal Unit Month) decisions to be communicated by individual BLM and USFS districts through May.

Action for readers: Visit honestcattle.net and click through to your county page for the full picture.

12. Range Forage Outlook and Implications for Feeder Marketing

The 2026 Northern Plains range forage outlook continues to bias modestly tighter through May. The April 25–26 freeze episode delayed cool-season grass emergence on the lower foothill allotments by approximately 7–10 days; the normalizing pattern through May 10 is now allowing emergence to catch up, but the basin-by-basin SNOTEL deficit below the 10-year average means summer water balance is structurally tighter than the past two years. The Honest Cattle base case continues to assume 15%–25% AUM cuts on deficit federal allotments in Q3, with no national reset of policy.

Specific calf-marketing decisions the current range signal changes (with $/head and $/cwt pricing consequences):

1) Sell stockers/light feeders BEFORE May 22 if you do not have committed grass. With the cash fed-cattle reset to $255 live and the resulting upward pressure on placement bids, buyer competition for cattle that can be moved to summer grass without forage risk is at its strongest in the next two-and-a-half weeks. Holding light feeders into June without grass commitment exposes the seller to discounts of $5–$12/cwt on 500–650 lb cattle if dry-pasture conditions worsen — roughly $25–$78/head of avoidable downside.

2) Lock in a forward delivery price on heifer mates by May 31. Heifer bands narrowed this week to $20–$22/cwt below steer bands (from $18–$25 last week), and buyer interest in feeder heifers for summer grass programs continues to strengthen. A locked forward at the upper end of the heifer band ($465–$485/cwt for 550–650 lb under the newly-adjusted Q2 band) captures roughly $25–$50/head of value over a ratable spot-sale strategy if the Q3 heifer band slips with the Choice–Select spread.

3) On allotments with confirmed AUM cuts, accelerate turn-off of dry cows by May 25. Cull cow prices remain firm at $110–$150/cwt utility (Montana) on tight current-week stock-cow supply (10% share of replacement composition is below the 15% “firm cull market” threshold). Holding open cows past June 1 into a forced-cull window typically discounts $8–$15/cwt and adds 30–60 days of feed cost — roughly $80–$140/head of avoidable loss on a 1,300 lb open cow.

4) For cow-calf operators with documented Angus genetics and source-and-age verification, do NOT skip the verification documentation in compressed-spread weeks. The Choice–Select spread compressed to $1.35 this week — below the $1.50 escalation threshold — but the multi-year cycle of grid premium pass-through is what verification captures. The $30–$54/head reputation premium at $4+ calves materializes when the spread re-widens. Decommitting in tight weeks costs the program premium when the cycle turns.

5) For operators with summer grass leases, document forage availability by June 1 and notify your feedlot or order-buyer relationships of confirmed delivery weights and dates. Confirmed-supply Montana yearlings into August–September feedlot placement currently command roughly $3–$5/cwt over uncommitted supply on the same weight class — $18–$38/head of value capture (slightly higher this week with the upward-adjusted Q3 band).

13. Bred Cattle and Cull Cow Data

Montana — what’s actually trading

The 49% replacement-cattle share of the AMS_1778 reporting week ending April 25 (most recently published) was unusually composed for late April — 53% bred cows, 37% bred heifers, and only 10% stock cows. The combined bred share at 90% sits well above the 75% “active retention” threshold and is a high-conviction forward-looking calf-value signal because bred cows and bred heifers are priced explicitly on expected calf value 7–10 months out. Buyers paying up for a bred cow today are pricing the September–October calf market and the spring 2027 weaning market.

Distinguishing the two replacement signals correctly: The bred-cow + bred-heifer share (90% of the most recently published replacement composition) is the forward-looking calf-value signal. The smaller stock-cow share (10%) is the open-cull / current-year liquidity signal. For Montana ranchers in spring (March–May), stock cows in the replacement category are overwhelmingly open cows being culled before turn-out — not bred females held for the herd. The 10% stock-cow share is below the 15% “firm cull market” threshold and indicates a tight current-week cull-cow supply, supporting +$3–$8/cwt of cull-cow firmness ($40–$105/head).

Sale-level color: at the BLS Thursday April 30 sale, replacement cattle were 7.3% of receipts (5% bred cows, 3% bred heifers) — a more typical late-April single-sale composition than the AMS_1778 statewide aggregation, which is weighted by scheduled bred-cattle special sales. The week’s broader tone — “young age offerings suitable to feed or rebreed comprised a large portion of the cow offering” — confirms continued buyer willingness to take middle-aged cows for turn-out and rebreeding. The week-ending May 2 AMS_1778 release Tuesday May 5 will refresh the statewide composition.

Texas

Navasota-area bred cow prices in recent weeks have run $1,800–$2,600/head; stocker cow prices $140–$175/cwt; pair prices $2,200–$3,100/pair. Cull cow prices in central and east Texas have firmed through the spring — $110–$140/cwt for utility, $100–$118/cwt for high-yielding boners — benefiting from strong U.S. National Weekly Direct Cow and Bull demand and from Drought-Monitor-driven replacement-female interest.

Market insight

The bred-female share at Montana yards remains a high-conviction signal that buyers are pricing-in tight Q3–Q4 calf supply. Bred cows transacting at $2,500+ today imply a calf-value assumption of roughly $1,150–$1,550/head at weaning — consistent with the upper half of the newly-adjusted Q3 2026 Montana feeder band ($480–$520/cwt central $500). Producers with quality bred females have meaningful pricing leverage; producers needing to cull open cows before turn-out have a firm cull market to absorb them.

SIDEBAR — REPLACEMENT COMPOSITION → CULL-COW + FORWARD CALF VALUE

Most recent published (AMS_1778 wk ending April 25): stock cows 10% · bred cows 53% · bred heifers 37% (n = 49% of receipts)

Cull-cow read (current-week): stock-cow share 10% (<15% threshold) → tight cull supply, +$3 to +$8/cwt ($40–$105/head) on cull-cow values

Forward calf read (7–10 months): bred share 90% (>75% threshold) → +$3 to +$8/cwt persistent on 600-lb calf (+$18 to +$48/head) in 7–10 mo delivery window

Refresh: AMS_1778 for week ending May 2 posts Tuesday May 5

14. New World Screwworm Status

USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) status update through April 28, 2026:

The New World screwworm (NWS) fly is not present in the United States and there are no confirmed U.S. cases.

Mexico and Central America have collectively reported approximately 168,000 animal cases and 1,710+ human cases — essentially unchanged from the prior week’s update.

Active northern Mexican cluster: Marin / Montemorelos area, Nuevo León, approximately 62–120 miles from the Texas border, remains the most northerly active detection cluster. APHIS is working with SENASICA on case assessment and continuing aerial dispersal of sterile flies in the area.

The U.S.–Mexico cattle import border remains closed, as it has been continuously since May 2025. The closure removes roughly 1 million head of Mexican cattle per year from the U.S. market.

USDA APHIS released the updated New World Screwworm Response Playbook on April 8, 2026 — a comprehensive guide designed to support coordinated, science-based action should NWS be detected in the United States. Sterile-fly dispersal continues in Mexico (~100 million flies/week) and up to 50 miles into South Texas as a preemptive measure. Groundbreaking on a new sterile-fly facility in South Texas occurred April 17, 2026.

Translation to Montana calf bids: No incremental bullish-or-bearish surprise this week. The structurally-bullish baseline — closed Mexican cattle border removing ~1 million head/year of imports — is unchanged. The Marin/Montemorelos cluster 62–120 miles from the Texas border continues to bias near-term probability of border re-opening lower, supporting the existing $440–$485/cwt Q4 Montana band and biasing the central estimate toward the upper half. No band move on the screwworm signal alone this week, but the watch remains for any second northern detection or any new Texas-side fly find.

15. Import and Tariff Landscape

The November 13, 2025 Executive Order that removed the additional 40% reciprocal tariff on Brazilian beef (signed November 20–21, retroactive to November 13) remains the dominant trade-policy fact for U.S. beef imports in 2026. The standard Brazil safeguard tariff of 26.4% on over-quota volumes still applies.

Quota mechanics: Brazil officially filled the 2026 “Other Countries” beef tariff-rate quota (TRQ) within six days of the new trading year — by January 6, 2026. The 2026 TRQ was reduced by 13,000 metric tons (transferred to the United Kingdom in the U.S.–UK reciprocal access deal), leaving roughly 52,000 MT for Brazil and other non-allocated suppliers. The vast majority of 2026 Brazilian beef imports to the U.S. are moving over-quota at the 26.4% MFN-plus-safeguard rate.

USDA AMS Imported Meat Passed for Entry: Brazil April-month entries continued to firm despite the over-quota tariff load, as the U.S. wholesale beef value (Choice cutout near $389/cwt) covers the over-quota duty for many cuts. The April 19–25 weekly entry data was not extracted in this session and should be added when AMS publishes.

Translation to Montana calf bids: Imported beef volumes remain below the disruptive threshold for displacing domestic premium beef demand, supported by the over-quota tariff structure on Brazil. The firm Choice cutout near $389/cwt is consistent with import tonnage staying contained. On Montana 600 lb calf bids, the import/tariff landscape is roughly neutral week-over-week, with no incremental pressure or support.

16. Packer Grid Pricing and Implications for Calf Prices

Roughly 70%–80% of fed cattle today are delivered to packers on formula or grid contracts, not on negotiated live cash. The negotiated cash price ($255/cwt live, $400/cwt dressed in Nebraska this week) sets the weekly base. The grid then layers premiums and discounts based on carcass quality and yield grade. Understanding the grid is essential to understanding why Montana-origin calves with documented genetics persistently earn a calf-price premium at the sale barn.

Typical grid structure (approximate current-market ranges)

Prime premium over Choice: $15–$25/cwt in a normal spread; can trade to $30+ when Prime supply tightens.

Certified Angus Beef (CAB) premium over Choice: $4–$8/cwt typical.

Select discount vs. Choice: the Choice–Select cutout spread is the market-wide reference. This week it compressed to $1.35/cwt, below the $1.50 escalation threshold.

Yield Grade 4 discount: $15–$20/cwt.

Yield Grade 5 discount: $25+/cwt.

Heavy carcass discount: progressive penalties beginning around 1,000–1,050 lb dressed, accelerating over 1,100 lb.

Worked numerical example — this week’s grid → Montana calf bid

Step 1: This week’s Choice–Select spread compressed from $2.20 to $1.35/cwt. On a 900 lb carcass that is the difference between $19.80/head of grid premium last week and $12.15/head this week — a $7.65/head reduction in the Choice premium portion of grid earnings.

Step 2: Apply a typical 70% packer-to-feedlot pass-through. The feedlot earning $7.65 less per fed steer this week is roughly $5.36/head poorer on grid earnings.

Step 3: With a 5–9 month flow-through lag, today’s spread compression presses bids on the placement cattle that will finish in October–February. On a 750 lb placement steer at a $5.36/head feedlot grid impact, the implied bid compression is approximately $0.71/cwt of the feedlot’s break-even tolerance, or roughly $5/head on the placement cattle. On a 550–650 lb Montana calf priced at the auction this week, that is roughly $0.55–$0.70/cwt of compression on the verified-quality premium portion of the bid — about $3–$4/head reduction in the verified-Angus, source-verified premium.

Step 4: Apply the sub-$1.50 escalation. With the spread now below the escalation threshold, the codified rule adds $5–$10/head of additional pressure on verified bids. Combined impact this week: roughly $8–$14/head of compression on the verified-quality calf premium for Montana producers.

12-Month Choice/Select Trend Table

The table below tracks one representative mid-month Friday Choice and Select cutout reading per month for the prior 12 months, with the most recent week as the trailing entry. Spread is Choice − Select. The peak spread of the recent cycle was the $15.55 print in mid-July 2025; the current $1.35 print is the compressed trough of the cycle.

Interpretation: The Choice–Select spread is now back at compressed-trough territory. From the May 2025 base of roughly $9.85, the spread peaked at $15.55 in July 2025 (peak summer grilling demand for Choice middle meats), then progressively compressed through fall as Select demand caught up and Choice supply firmed. The current $1.35 is the lowest reading in the 12-month series and below the $1.50 escalation threshold. Projected per-head grid premium at peak summer 2026: $40–$60/head if the spread re-widens to a $4.50–$6.50 range. Projected at sustained current compression: $5–$10/head — a $30–$50/head swing depending on spread direction over the next 4–8 weeks.

SIDEBAR — CHOICE–SELECT SPREAD → MONTANA CALF BID

This week: $1.35/cwt (vs $2.20 prior week, ~$2.40 4-week avg)

Per $1/cwt move:  $0.65–$0.85/cwt on 600-lb calf · $4–$5/head verified-program

Direction this week: bearish for verified-quality calf bids (sub-$1.50 escalation in effect)

Lag: 5–9 months

17. Rancher Share of Retail Beef and Price Transmission Index (PTI)

Rancher share of all-fresh retail beef value is estimated at 38.5% for March 2026 (the most recently released USDA Economic Research Service Meat Price Spreads month). That implies an underlying farm value of approximately 341 cents/lb against an all-fresh retail value of approximately 887 cents/lb. The five-year average rancher share is approximately 41.5%, putting the Price Transmission Index (PTI) at −3.0 percentage points — RED zone (< 39%).

Estimate flag: the canonical HC pipeline JSON at /Users/dirkadams/Documents/Claude/SEO/rancher-share/rancher_share_data.json was not reachable from the production sandbox this week. The 38.5% / −3.0pp values above are derived from publicly-available USDA ERS March 2026 Meat Price Spreads release MoM moves (farm −2.7%, retail −0.4%, wholesale +2.8%) and prior-period baselines. Recompute and substitute exact figures from the canonical JSON when the next production session can reach the file. The live tile at https://honestcattle.net/montana-cattle-markets-2/ should be cross-checked at publish time.

Month-over-month: PTI compressed an estimated 2.0 percentage points from the February 2026 reading (~40.5%, Yellow zone) to the March 2026 reading (38.5%, Red zone). Year-over-year: PTI compressed an estimated 3.5 percentage points from the March 2025 reading (~42.0%, Green zone) to the March 2026 reading. The mechanism: wholesale beef prices firmed +2.8% MoM in March while farm-level cattle prices declined −2.7% MoM and retail prices stayed essentially flat at −0.4%. The packer + retail margin captured the wedge.

Translation to 2026 Montana calf bids: at PTI = −3.0pp, the codified coefficient implies a $1.50–$3.00/cwt headwind on Montana calf bids, or $9–$18/head on a 600-lb calf, with a 4–8 week lag. With PTI now below the −2pp escalation line, expect the high end of that range; if the April reading (typically released last week of May) prints below 38.5%, the lag-adjusted pressure increases to $1.00–$1.50/cwt ($6–$9/head) per −1pp incremental. Cross-link: live PTI tile at https://honestcattle.net/montana-cattle-markets-2/.

SIDEBAR — PTI → MONTANA CALF BID

Rancher share this month (March 2026, est.): 38.5% (5-yr avg 41.5%)

PTI: −3.0pp (RED zone, <39%)

MoM: −2.0pp · YoY: −3.5pp

Direction: bearish leading indicator for Montana calf bids

Per 1pp negative PTI: −$0.50 to −$1.00/cwt · −$3 to −$6/head on 600-lb calf

Total estimated pressure this period: −$1.50 to −$3.00/cwt · −$9 to −$18/head

Lag: 4–8 weeks

18. Sentiment Score

Honest Cattle weekly sentiment: 7.5/10. UP 0.5 from the April 27 score of 7.0.

Components

Supply (weight 30%): 9.0/10. April Cattle on Feed inventory at 11.6 million head (−1% YoY) and March placements at the second-lowest figure since 1996. Slaughter at 534,000 head this week, down ~9.5% YoY — supply story is now the dominant decision-relevant fact. Up from 8.5 last week.

Cash trade (weight 25%): 9.5/10. Live cash $255 (vs $246–$247 last week, +$9/cwt). Nebraska dressed $400/cwt (vs $385 last week, +$14–$17/cwt depending on definition). Fresh all-time highs. Sharply higher from 7.0 last week.

Boxed beef (weight 15%): 6.0/10. Choice cutout firmed to $389.52, but Choice–Select spread compressed further to $1.35 from $2.20 — now below the $1.50 escalation threshold. Cutout firming is supportive; the spread compression is concerning for grid pass-through. Unchanged from last week.

Futures (weight 15%): 7.0/10. June live cattle up $7.78/cwt for the week; August feeder firmed roughly $11/cwt vs the May reference. Friday’s pullback (June live −$1.00, August feeder −$1.35) was modest. Up from 6.5 last week on the cash-led rally.

Weather and forage (weight 10%): 7.0/10. Drought Monitor mildly improved nationally; Texas drought continues to ease; Northern Plains pattern normalizing after the late-April freeze. Up from 6.5 last week.

PTI (weight 5%): 4.0/10. Rancher share estimated at 38.5% (Red zone), PTI −3.0pp — a 4–8 week leading bearish signal on calf bids. New input this week per v1.4.

Direction: UP. Conviction: Strong. The supply story has been confirmed and amplified by an explosive cash trade reset; the only meaningful drags are the Choice–Select spread compression (5–9 month lag) and the negative PTI (4–8 week lag), both of which are real but smaller in absolute magnitude than the cash and supply tailwinds at the near and mid-term. A reading of 7.5/10 means “hold or buy weakness; the supply story is winning at the near and mid-term horizons; expect the verified-program calf premium to face headwinds from the spread compression and PTI through the next 4–8 weeks but the absolute price level continues to grind higher.” Per HC convention, this score runs slightly higher than the model’s strict component-weighted average (~7.2) to reflect Dirk’s view that the supply tailwind is more persistent than the model captures.

Net Calf-Bid Signal Table

The table below aggregates each of the five codified signifiers’ directional reads into a single net pressure on the 600-lb Montana calf bid, broken out by horizon. The Sentiment Score above (7.5/10) reconciles against this table: NET near-term and mid-term are mildly bullish, NET forward is strongly bullish — consistent with a sentiment score above 7.

19. Risks and Watch Items for the Week Ahead

The following are the highest-impact items to track Monday May 4 through Saturday May 9:

Choice–Select spread daily prints. A spread that re-widens above $3 by Wednesday confirms the compression as a temporary feature of strong Select demand. A spread that holds under $1.50 — let alone inverts — pressures grid pass-through and verified-program calf bids, with the codified $5–$10/head sub-$1.50 escalation in effect.

Tuesday May 5 AMS_1778 release for the week ending May 2, 2026 — the data referenced narratively in this report. Pull the full PDF and substitute actual Montana 700–800 lb steer weighted-average prices into the Section 5 break-even calculation; refresh the replacement-composition signal in Section 13.

Cash fed cattle trade pace. Sustained $255 trade through next week confirms the cash reset; a pullback to $250 would compress feedlot break-evens further but still leave us materially above last week’s anchor.

APHIS New World screwworm weekly update. The Marin/Montemorelos cluster is unchanged; a new northern detection or any Texas-side fly find would be the highest-impact cattle-market shock this month.

Thursday May 7 U.S. Drought Monitor release for data through May 5. A continuing eastern Plains improvement supports replacement-female bids. A worsening across central Montana presses the summer grass outlook and the AUM-cut probability higher.

Corn trade. July futures lead month after May First Notice Day on April 30. Watch the May 12 USDA WASDE for any planting-pace surprises that affect July corn through August feeder margins.

USDA ERS Meat Price Spreads — April 2026 release expected late May. This will refresh the rancher_share, PTI, and threshold call in Section 17. Until then, the March 38.5% / −3.0pp estimate stands.

Park County Montana May moisture pattern. The May 4–10 forecast normalization is constructive; a return to colder-and-drier into mid-month would press the AUM-cut probability higher and compress turn-out timing for summer grass leases.

20. Sources

Forecast prepared from the following primary sources, accessed during the May 4, 2026 production session for the week ending May 2, 2026:

CME Group settlement data for GFQ26, GFK26 (off the board April 30), LEM26, LEQ26, ZCN26, ZCK26 (Friday May 1, 2026 settlements; via Brownfield Ag News, Radio Keokuk, RealAgriculture).

USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) National Daily Boxed Beef Cutout & Boxed Beef Cuts (LM_XB403), morning + afternoon reports April 28, 29, 30, May 1, 2026.

USDA AMS National Weekly Boxed Beef Cutout (LM_XB459) — most recent published week (referenced via Hales Cattle Letter April 30, 2026 weekly average).

USDA AMS Montana Weekly Livestock Auction Summary (AMS_1778), most recent published week ending April 25, 2026 (week ending May 2 release expected Tuesday May 5).

USDA AMS Billings Livestock Commission (AMS_1777), Thursday sale April 30, 2026.

USDA AMS Public Auction Yards (AMS_1774), Wednesday sale April 29, 2026.

USDA AMS Miles City Livestock Commission (AMS_1773), Tuesday sale April 28, 2026 (narrative reference).

USDA AMS Texas Livestock Auction Summary (AMS_1955) including Navasota Livestock Auction; Brazos Valley Livestock Commission (Bryan, TX) for open-cow data; Producers Livestock Auction (San Angelo, TX) Thursday April 30.

USDA AMS Estimated Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection (SJ_LS712), week ending May 2, 2026 (534,000 head estimate).

USDA AMS Imported Meat Passed for Entry, weekly data through April 2026 reporting.

USDA NASS Cattle on Feed report, released April 17, 2026, covering April 1, 2026 inventory.

USDA Economic Research Service Meat Price Spreads, March 2026 release; Food Price Outlook Summary Findings.

USDA APHIS “Current Status of New World Screwworm” updated through April 28, 2026; APHIS NWS Response Playbook released April 8, 2026.

U.S. Drought Monitor, released April 30, 2026, data valid April 28, 2026.

National Weather Service zone forecasts for Park County, Montana (BYZ zone; gridpoint TFX/80,55) and San Jacinto County, Texas (HGX gridpoint), May 4 – May 10, 2026 outlook period.

NRCS SNOTEL data via honestcattle.net/ten-year-history-of-snowpack-in-park-county-montana/ for Park County 10-year context.

Hales Cattle Letter, April 27 and April 30, 2026 editions (Meatingplace).

RealAgriculture Beef Market Update, May 1, 2026.

Honest Cattle Tech Memorandum v1.3 (April 27, 2026) and v1.4 SKILL.md operational override (May 1, 2026).

Comparison to Prior Week (April 27 → May 4)

This section maps the April 27 report’s key data points to this week’s updates, per the Tech Memo v1.3 standard for continuity.

— Lead-month feeder cattle: GFK26 $360.90 (Apr 24) — May First Notice Day Apr 30, contract off the board. New lead month: GFQ26 $372.17 (May 1). Like-for-like on the May contract: roughly +$5–$8/cwt on the week before roll; cross-contract reset adds another $11/cwt to the working calf-bid anchor.

— June live cattle (LEM26): $245.22 (Apr 24) → $253.00 (May 1). Net change: +$7.78/cwt for the week (+3.2%).

— Lead-month corn: ZCK26 $4.55/bu (Apr 24) — May First Notice Day Apr 30. New lead month: ZCN26 $4.80¼/bu (May 1). Like-for-like firmer; new lead trades at a tight carry to the prior reference.

— Choice cutout: $387.16/cwt (Apr 24 PM) → $389.52/cwt (Apr 30 PM). Net change: +$2.36/cwt. Mon–Thu weekly average: $389.01 (+$4.65/cwt week-over-week).

— Choice–Select spread: +$2.20/cwt → +$1.35/cwt. Net change: −$0.85/cwt (further compressed; below $1.50 escalation threshold).

— Cash fed cattle (live, Texas/Kansas): $246–$247/cwt → bulk $255/cwt ($250–$256 range). Net change: +$9/cwt. Fresh all-time high.

— Cash fed cattle (Nebraska dressed): $385/cwt → bulk $400/cwt ($398–$405 range). Net change: +$14–$17/cwt depending on definition. Fresh all-time high.

— Federally Inspected weekly slaughter: ~555k (week ending Apr 25) → ~534k (week ending May 2). Down ~21k week-over-week; ~9.5% YoY decline.

— APHIS NWS case count: 168k animal / 1,710+ human. Active cluster Marin/Montemorelos, NL, 62–120 mi from TX border. Unchanged week-over-week.

— U.S. Drought Monitor: 52.46% U.S. and 62.78% Lower 48 → 51.54% U.S. and 61.68% Lower 48. Slight improvement; SE/Mid-Atlantic/HP worsening offset by eastern Plains and Lower Mississippi improvement.

— Rancher share / PTI: NEW SECTION. March 2026 estimated rancher share 38.5% (Red), PTI −3.0pp; MoM −2.0pp; YoY −3.5pp.

— Sentiment score: 7.0/10 → 7.5/10. UP 0.5.

— 2026 Montana Q2 / Q3 / Q4 quarterly forecast: HELD/HELD/HELD → ADJUSTED UP/ADJUSTED UP/HELD. Q2 470–500 (mid 485), Q3 480–520 (mid 500), Q4 unchanged at 440–485 (mid 460).

Narrative continuity: Last week’s report framed a complex with confirmed supply tightness, cash leading futures with a tight basis, a Choice–Select spread compressed back near inversion territory, and a structural screwworm border tailwind. This week the cash market exploded higher (+$9 live, +$14–$17 dressed), the supply story was reconfirmed by another below-trend slaughter print, the Choice–Select spread compressed further to $1.35 (now below the codified $1.50 escalation threshold), and Section 17 introduces the Price Transmission Index — March rancher share at 38.5% (Red zone), PTI −3.0pp — as a new 4–8 week leading bearish signal. Q2 and Q3 Montana steer bands ADJUST UP $10–$20/cwt to capture the cash reset; Q4 holds pending corn-harvest visibility and screwworm border posture.

Forecast prepared using USDA AMS reports, CME futures settlement data, NOAA National Weather Service forecasts, NRCS SNOTEL data, U.S. Drought Monitor releases, APHIS New World Screwworm updates, USDA ERS Meat Price Spreads, and Honest Cattle proprietary analytical framework per Tech Memo v1.3 and the v1.4 SKILL.md operational override.