Rancher Share of Retail Beef
42.0%
March 2026 · GREEN ↑ recovery above the 39% floor
Farm value 372¢/lb · Retail value 886¢/lb. Farm-level cattle prices outpaced retail beef in the latest USDA ERS Meat Price Spreads release (covering March 2026, published April 25, 2026) — the cattle-cycle-driven farm-value rally is widening rancher share against the more sticky retail-pricing dynamic.

Price Transmission Index (PTI): +2.5pp (above the 39.5% five-year average). Positive PTI is bullish for Montana calf bids on a 4–8 week lag.
39% floor
How it’s computed: farm value ÷ retail value (all-fresh retail beef, cents/lb).
Thresholds: Red < 39% · Yellow 39–41% · Green > 41%.
As of: March 2026 ERS release (April 25, 2026). April data expected mid-June; refreshed in each Honest Cattle Weekly Forecast.
Source: USDA ERS →

Market Overview

Montana cattle move through three primary marketing channels: private treaty / direct trade, video and satellite auctions, and live (in-person) auctions. By volume, private treaty is the largest channel by a wide margin — roughly 60–65% of Montana’s marketed cattle move privately, another 15–20% sell on video, and only about 16% pass through public auction barns. Auction prices nonetheless do most of the public price-discovery work because they are the only channel with daily reported numbers.

For the calculation behind these shares and the per-channel data sources, see Montana Cattle Marketing Channels. For the underlying movement data, see Where Montana’s Cattle Went in 2023.

Billings Auctions

The Billings, Montana market complex is the dominant price discovery point for Montana cattle. Weekly receipts and price trends are tracked in the market reports section.

Video Auctions

Video auction sales have become an increasingly important marketing channel for Montana producers, particularly for larger packages of uniform calves and yearlings.

Private Treaty / Direct Sales

Private treaty is the dominant marketing channel for Montana calves and yearlings — roughly 60–65% of all marketed cattle, or about 688,000 head in 2024 on a 1.05M-head marketed total. It is also the least visible channel: there is no clearinghouse for prices, no daily report, and no requirement to disclose terms.

The category covers a range of transaction types:

Why so much volume moves privately in Montana: Montana’s calf crop is heavy on large, uniform, well-bred, well-managed lots — exactly the kind of cattle that command direct-buyer interest and that don’t benefit (and may lose ground) from a sale-barn commingling event. Eastern Montana’s distance from public auction infrastructure also tilts the math: a single load of calves from Carter or Powder River County is closer to a Corn Belt feedyard than to most of Montana’s auction barns.

What we can and can’t see: Private treaty volume is invisible to USDA AMS price-reporting because no public auction or video sale event ever happens. What we can see is the downstream movement — the FOIA-released MT Department of Livestock BE-10 brand inspections capture every interstate shipment regardless of how it was marketed. That is why brand-inspection data is the only way to bound private-treaty volume from the supply side.

Caveats on price comparison: Industry conventional wisdom holds that private-treaty cattle realize the highest prices of any channel. That is broadly true for reputation cattle in load lots, but most of the gap reflects differences in cattle type, lot size, and health programs rather than the channel itself. A small mixed-quality lot will not earn a private-treaty premium just by skipping the sale barn. See the channel-comparison discussion on the Marketing Channels page for sources and caveats.

Regional Markets

Smaller regional auction markets throughout Montana serve as local price discovery and logistics points. Understanding the relationship between regional markets and the Billings complex is key to marketing decisions.

Price Discovery

Montana cattle prices are influenced by national supply and demand fundamentals, regional production cycles, feeder cattle futures, and local weather and forage conditions. The Weekly Market Report tracks these factors on an ongoing basis.

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